Aiming at the huge supply gap, claiming to "stabilize global supply", Qatar's LNG exports are interrupted, and the United States is racing against time to seize the market.

# Global Times

Affected by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, two energy facilities in Qatar have been attacked, disrupting LNG exports. European natural gas futures prices once doubled. Thanks to its status as the world’s largest LNG exporter and flexible contracts, the United States has become the biggest beneficiary of this turmoil. Shares of U.S. LNG exporters Cheniere Energy and Venture Global LNG surged sharply. However, analyses by multiple energy experts suggest that actual profit margins for U.S. energy suppliers may be limited as domestic production capacity is nearing its limit.

Amid a new round of conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has shifted abruptly. With export disruptions in Qatar, a major global LNG supplier, prices in European and Asian markets have soared, and U.S. LNG exporters are racing against time to seize opportunities from this energy shock.

## Energy Company Shares Surge

According to U.S. media outlet CNBC, on March 2, two key energy facilities in Qatar were attacked amid the conflict and forced to halt LNG production, creating a massive supply gap in the global energy market. Data from international energy consultancy Kpler shows that Qatar is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the U.S., accounting for roughly 20% of global supply.

Following the supply disruption from Qatar, shares of two major U.S. LNG producers, Cheniere Energy and Venture Global LNG, rose by approximately 7% and nearly 24% respectively. On March 2, during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call, Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel stated plainly: “The U.S. has the world’s largest incremental LNG production capacity and will play a critical role going forward.” Reports suggest markets are quickly betting that U.S. energy suppliers will be among the winners in this historic energy market turmoil.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that the U.S. surpassed Qatar and Australia to become the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe replaced Asia as the main destination for U.S. LNG. In 2022, Europe received about 69% of U.S. LNG exports, up sharply from 34% in 2021. From January to November 2025, this share remained around 68%. For the full year 2025, U.S. LNG overseas shipments exceeded 100 million tonnes, with several more plants under construction.

Alex Munton, a natural gas market analyst at international energy consultancy Rapidan Energy, noted that unlike other exporters, U.S. LNG supply contracts typically do not have fixed destinations, meaning cargoes can be re-routed according to market needs. “This flexibility is crucial in times of crisis and is a unique advantage of the U.S. LNG industry. For example, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, when Europe suddenly faced a huge energy gap, it was the flexible re-routing capability of U.S. LNG that helped capture the European market.”

Munton believes that some commodity traders holding U.S. LNG supplies are profiting from the current conflict: “They can resell their energy commodities at prices up to 50% higher than original costs.”

## U.S. LNG Export Facilities Nearing Full Capacity

Some observers argue that the U.S.’s strong position in the global energy market in recent years has supported aggressive moves by natural gas developers. On March 3, The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece titled “U.S. Gas Exports Are Saving the World,” stating that a decade ago, U.S. LNG export capacity barely existed. Today, however, it serves to “stabilize global supplies” during periods of geopolitical tension. A recent report on Forbes’ website argued that U.S. LNG exporters “provide critical energy security for allies in Europe and around the world.”

Bloomberg reported on March 3 that U.S. natural gas exporters have received a significant boost following sharp cuts to natural gas supplies from the Middle East. Major U.S. natural gas companies are actively expanding capacity.

On the supply side, Cheniere Energy’s plant in Texas is gradually ramping up production, a new energy processing plant at Venture Global is accelerating commissioning, and a joint venture between Qatar and ExxonMobil in Texas is expected to ship its first cargoes in the first quarter of 2026.

However, reports citing analyses by multiple energy experts warn that actual profit potential for U.S. energy suppliers may be limited as domestic capacity nears its limit. Ira Joseph, Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, noted that current U.S. LNG export facilities are operating near full capacity, with spare capacity of only about 5%, making it impossible to fully replace Qatar’s output. While Mike Sabel emphasized that U.S. natural gas will play a key role amid market turmoil, he also acknowledged that sustained high price spreads are needed to offset the time costs of transatlantic shipping.

## To Push Up European Energy Bills

As U.S. energy exporters target market opportunities, Europe risks becoming one of the biggest victims of the energy market turmoil. Industry data shows that the U.S. will supply around 70% of Europe’s LNG between 2026 and 2029. A March 4 report on Politico’s website analyzed that natural gas accounts for 20% of Europe’s energy consumption, serving as a critical energy source for heating, power generation and industrial production. Rising prices will push up energy bills for European industries and households, with European energy costs already among the highest in the world.

Industry data shows that tensions in the Middle East have disrupted global energy flows, sending European natural gas prices soaring. The European benchmark natural gas futures price climbed above €60 per megawatt-hour on March 3, doubling from the previous weekend. UK natural gas prices also rose by 45%. By contrast, U.S. natural gas prices rose only modestly by 3.5%. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that a one-month shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could drive European natural gas prices up by 130% from current levels. Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith noted that Europe is now forced to seek supplies originally intended for Asian markets, which are mainly covered by Australia, the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, located far from Europe.

A March 2 report on RT cited analysts warning that the current turmoil could deliver the worst shock to Europe’s natural gas market since 2022. After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU abandoned relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas in favor of LNG from the U.S. Europe’s heating season is now coming to an end, yet natural gas storage utilization is lower than in previous years. The EU will need to import large volumes over the summer to replenish stocks for the next winter. Analysts warn that if the conflict in the Gulf persists, higher natural gas costs could be passed on to household bills, ultimately creating inflationary pressure on the European economy.

Source: Global Times

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