Morning News

# Market Overview

Source: Wallstreetcn

## Market Overview

Strong U.S. economic data, coupled with easing price pressures, temporarily overshadowed the gloom from the Middle East situation. U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1% supported by tech stocks. Consumer discretionary and utilities sectors led the gains, while energy and materials sectors lagged. Software stocks rebounded for a third consecutive day, with the North American Tech Software ETF rising nearly 2%.

U.S. Treasuries fell for a third straight day. The 10-year yield rose 3.8 basis points, and the 2-year yield climbed 4.7 basis points. The U.S. dollar retreated 0.26%.

Cryptocurrencies surged. Bitcoin rose 7.8%, breaking strongly above $73,000. Ethereum once jumped nearly 12%.

Precious metals edged higher. Gold rose 1%, trading around $5,140. Spot silver rose 1.78% after paring earlier gains. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent pledged to safeguard the Persian Gulf. Oil prices fell for the first time intraday since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war but ultimately closed higher.

During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite fell 1%, breaking below the 4,100-point mark. PetroChina became the A-share with the largest circulating market value. Power grid equipment stocks rose against the trend. The Hang Seng Index fell over 2%, with tech and internet stocks broadly lower.

## Key News

### China

The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opened, with President Xi Jinping and other Party and state leaders in attendance. At a press conference for the National People's Congress (NPC), it was stated that the key to technological development lies in independent control of core technologies, efforts will continue to expand domestic demand, and a law on childcare services will be enacted.

China's official manufacturing PMI for February stood at 49, and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5. China's February RatingDog manufacturing PMI surged to 52.1, with both domestic and external demand picking up. The growth rate of new export orders hit a more than five-year high.

COSCO Shipping: Amid escalating Middle East conflicts, the company suspended new booking services for relevant routes starting immediately.

Moore Thread: Q1 revenue is expected to increase by 25%-87% year-on-year, with non-GAAP net loss narrowing by 4.00%-77.14%.

### Overseas

The U.S. Senate failed to pass a vote to halt Trump's strikes on Iran. U.S. Defense Secretary stated that the U.S.-Iran conflict could last eight weeks or longer. Iran denied seeking negotiations. Wang Yi said China will send a special envoy for Middle East issues to the region for mediation. Iran has finalized candidates for its supreme leader. Israel said any new leader would be a "target for elimination". The U.S. is facing ammunition shortages. Trump will convene defense industry giants at the White House this week to discuss accelerating weapons production. After the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers were also attacked in the Mediterranean.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: A 15% global tariff could be implemented this week. He pledged to safeguard the Persian Gulf, hinting at more measures to come. The shipping industry has questioned the escort commitment.

Middle East conflicts have led to flight suspensions in Dubai. About 20% of global gold logistics may be disrupted, with silver also impacted.

The U.S. military is reported to have used Claude AI for airstrikes on Iran, responsible for intelligence assessment and target identification. Experts have issued stern warnings.

Putin said he is considering cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe proactively, while Russia remains a reliable energy supplier to all partners.

U.S. ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, the highest in three months. The U.S. ISM services PMI for February hit a new high since mid-2022, with the backlog of orders index surging unusually.

AI revenue doubled, driving Broadcom's quarterly revenue to a record high. Its current-quarter guidance also beat expectations, with a share repurchase program of up to $10 billion announced.

After surging again a month later, reports say Samsung Electronics has raised its Q1 DRAM price increase forecast from 70% to 100%. Amid severe supply-demand imbalance, NAND flash memory prices are expected to rise 90% in Q1.

Apple launched its most affordable laptop, the MacBook Neo, priced under $650, marking its first foray into the low-end PC market with iPhone chips.

Jensen Huang: The $30 billion investment in OpenAI "may be the last one", ruling out the possibility of a $100 billion investment.

## Market Closing

### U.S. & European Stocks

- S&P 500: +0.78% to 6,869.50

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.49% to 48,739.41

- Nasdaq Composite: +1.29% to 22,807.484

- European STOXX 600: +1.37% to 612.71

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite: -0.98% to 4,082.47

- Shenzhen Component: -0.75% to 13,917.75

- ChiNext Index: -1.41% to 3,164.37

### Bond Market

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: +2.69 bps to 4.0862% (up 14.88 bps in the past three trading days)

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: +2.49 bps to 4.0843%

### Commodities

- WTI Crude: +1.6%

- Brent Crude: +0.7%

- COMEX Gold Futures: +0.50% to $5,149.20/oz

- COMEX Silver Futures: +0.15% to $83.600/oz

# News Details

## Global Highlights

### China

The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opened, with Xi Jinping and other Party and state leaders in attendance. The opening meeting reviewed and adopted the agenda for the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the CPPCC. Wang Huning, Chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, delivered a work report on behalf of the Standing Committee of the 14th CPPCC National Committee.

**NPC Press Conference**: The key to scientific and technological development lies in independent control of core technologies; we will continue to expand domestic demand and enact the Nursery and Childcare Services Law. Lou Qinjian, spokesperson for the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC), stated that this year China will continue to take expanding domestic demand as the strategic cornerstone, vigorously boost consumption, and advance the building of a strong domestic market. The Standing Committee of the NPC will conduct oversight over building a unified national market and comprehensively promoting rural revitalization, and enact laws including the Social Assistance Law, the Medical Security Law, and the Nursery and Childcare Services Law, to channel more resources into people's livelihoods and enable people to consume, dare to consume, and be willing to consume. The innovation and development of science and technology hinge on independent control of core technologies.

China's official manufacturing PMI stood at 49 in February, and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5. China's February RatingDog manufacturing PMI surged to 52.1, with both domestic and external demand driving growth; the growth rate of new export orders hit a more than five-year high.

China's February manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, returning to the contraction zone, with small and medium-sized enterprises hit particularly hard. However, high-tech manufacturing expanded against the trend to 51.5%; festive consumption boomed in the service sector, with the prosperity index for catering, accommodation, and entertainment soaring above 60%. The enterprise production and operation expectation index rose to 53.2%, and market confidence in post-holiday recovery remains strong.

China's February RatingDog composite PMI rose to 55.4, hitting a 33-month high. Both the manufacturing PMI (52.1) and service PMI (56.7) rebounded sharply. The core drivers of this month's data are "explosive orders" and "restored bargaining power": manufacturing new export orders recorded the highest growth rate since September 2020; service sector sales prices rose at a 21-month high, marginally easing corporate profit pressures.

Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that the February manufacturing PMI saw a seasonal decline due to the Spring Festival, but the drop was smaller than expected; after excluding disturbances, the actual prosperity improved. The economy at the start of the year shows a structural "temperature difference": first, diverging price indicators with resilient ex-factory prices; second, export orders falling more than expected, putting small enterprises under pressure; third, a trade-off between construction sector downtime and service sector consumption recovery in the non-manufacturing sector.

**COSCO SHIPPING**: Amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the company suspends new booking services for relevant routes immediately. The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict has disrupted global shipping; on March 4, COSCO SHIPPING announced the immediate suspension of new booking services for multiple countries in the Persian Gulf, involving key ports in the UAE (excluding Fujairah and Khor Fakkan), Qatar, Iraq, and others.

**AI computing power continues to boom!** MetaX Integrated Circuits (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (MetaX) forecasts a 25%-87% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2026, with non-GAAP net loss narrowing by 4.00%-77.14%. MetaX released its Q1 2026 performance forecast, expecting revenue of 400 million to 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.84% to 87.26%, representing a leap from 320 million yuan in the same period last year. Profit quality has also improved: net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed to 90.76 million to 182 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 22% to 61%; non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 4% to 77%. The performance growth is mainly driven by the high prosperity of the AI industry and rising recognition from downstream customers.

### Overseas

The U.S. Senate rejected a vote to halt Trump's strikes on Iran. On March 4 local time, a majority of U.S. senators supported President Trump's military actions against Iran, voting down a bipartisan resolution by 47 yeas to 52 nays that aimed to stop airstrikes and require congressional authorization for any hostile actions against Iran.

U.S. Defense Secretary says U.S.-Iran conflict could last eight weeks or longer; Iran denies reports of seeking negotiations; Wang Yi says China will send a special envoy for Middle East issues to mediate in the region. The U.S. Defense Secretary stated that the U.S. and Israel plan to "gain full control" of Iran's airspace within a week; NATO's interception of Iranian missiles will not trigger collective defense clauses; a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean. The U.S. military says it has attacked more than 20 Iranian vessels. The White House says it has struck over 2,000 Iranian targets with no plans to deploy ground troops. An aide to Khamenei says Iran has no intention of negotiating with the U.S. and can fight as long as it wants, as in the Iran-Iraq War; Iran has completed 17 rounds of strikes against the U.S. and Israel, claiming over 500 U.S. soldiers killed and three U.S. THAAD anti-missile systems destroyed. NATO condemned Iran's attack on Turkey and intercepted an Iranian missile bound for a member state for the first time in this round of conflict; the UK reportedly has not ruled out joining strikes on Iran, while the German Defense Minister says German troops will not participate. Spain denied agreeing to military cooperation with the U.S. A cargo ship flying the Maltese flag was hit by a missile near the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's probability of cutting interest rates twice at most this year has also declined.

U.S. February ISM services index hits highest since mid-2022; backlog of orders index surges unusually. The U.S. February ISM services index rose to 56.1, jumping 2.3 points month-on-month to the highest level since mid-2022, exceeding expectations. The new orders sub-index climbed to 58.6, a more than one-year high; the backlog of orders index surged 11.9 points in a single month, recording an unprecedented increase and hitting a nearly four-year high.

**Broadcom** posts record quarterly revenue on AI revenue doubling; current-quarter guidance also beats expectations; plans up to $10 billion buyback. Broadcom's total revenue rose 29% year-on-year in the first fiscal quarter; AI revenue doubled year-on-year to $8.4 billion, above the company's guidance, while software revenue grew only 1%. AI revenue is expected to reach $10.7 billion in the second fiscal quarter, up 143% year-on-year. Broadcom forecasts total revenue of $22 billion in the second fiscal quarter, up 47% year-on-year, more than 7% above analysts' average expectations; on the earnings call, it said Anthropic will drive 3GW of computing power demand next year, OpenAI will deploy chips at scale, and Meta's custom chip roadmap is progressing well. The stock, which turned negative in after-hours trading, reversed to rise more than 5%.

**Samsung Electronics** raises Q1 DRAM price hike forecast from 70% to 100% after another surge in one month. Samsung Electronics finalized a Q1 DRAM price increase of over 100%, expanding by about 30 percentage points from the 70% level negotiated a month earlier. According to Korean media, some overseas customers have completed payments, and the supply negotiation cycle has been shortened from annual to quarterly or even monthly. This round of price hikes stems from HBM capacity constraints amid the AI investment boom, limiting general DRAM supply while demand remains strong. SK Hynix and Micron are following suit with equivalent hikes; the three major manufacturers have collectively raised prices, and the uptrend is expected to continue into the second quarter.

**NAND flash** prices expected to rise 90% in Q1 amid severe supply-demand imbalance. The supply-demand imbalance in the NAND flash market continues to worsen due to surging AI infrastructure demand and HDD shortages driving order switching. Latest data from TrendForce shows that NAND flash prices are estimated to surge 85% to 90% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026; the five major manufacturers' combined Q4 revenue reached $21.17 billion. With no expansion in sight and unabated AI demand, this price rally could last throughout the year.

**Apple** launches its most affordable laptop, **MacBook Neo**, priced under $4,600; enters the low-end PC market with iPhone chips for the first time. For the first time in decades, Apple has proactively entered the low-end laptop market, directly challenging Microsoft Windows PCs and Google Chromebooks. The MacBook Neo features a 13-inch Liquid Retina display, uses the same A18 Pro processor as the iPhone 16 Pro, boasts AI processing speeds claimed to be three times that of some similarly priced laptops, offers 16 hours of battery life, starts at $599, and is available in four rare Mac colors including peach pink, targeting young consumers.

**Huang Renxun (Jensen Huang)**: $30 billion investment in OpenAI "may be the last"; rules out $100 billion investment possibility. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said at a Morgan Stanley conference that NVIDIA's $30 billion investment in OpenAI may be the last chance for a large-scale stake, as OpenAI plans to go public this year. The two sides previously agreed on a cumulative investment cap of $100 billion for NVIDIA, but the agreement was shelved in January. Huang also pushed back against the "AI bubble" argument, emphasizing that computing power deployment has delivered tangible returns and the industry is still at the start of a growth cycle.

### Selected Research Reports

**Will Trump TACO to save the stock market? Wall Street is not optimistic this time.** Wall Street strategists have warned in unison: this time, don't expect Trump to compromise to rescue the market. War is different from tariffs—once it starts, it has its own momentum, and the White House cannot easily "flip the switch." Surging oil prices threaten inflation, dampen rate-cut expectations, and combined with doubts about AI prospects and slowing employment, U.S. stocks are under pressure. Analysts bluntly state that U.S. stocks need to fall by at least 10% to 15% to truly rouse Washington.

**Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon**: Market's muted reaction to Iran surprising; may take weeks to fully digest. Solomon said it may take weeks for the market to fully absorb the impact of the conflict; all ongoing events will have a cumulative effect and could lead to a stronger reaction. U.S. backing for shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz is one of the key factors currently supporting market sentiment.

**Why hasn't oil hit $100 despite "effective closure" of Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Middle East energy facilities?** With 150 oil tankers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz and Qatar's LNG plants attacked—arguably a "worst-case scenario" unfolding—oil prices have only risen 30% to $85, failing to break the $100 barrier. Ample inventories, ready U.S. strategic reserves, and traders' crisis restructuring experience have kept the market restrained—but analysts warn that if the blockade lasts two weeks, oil prices will likely breach $100.

# Domestic Macro

The U.S. is considering imposing a purchase quota on Chinese firms buying NVIDIA H200 chips; experts say Washington’s strategy to contain China in AI chips has failed. According to Global Times, the U.S. government is weighing its export policy for NVIDIA’s H200 chips to China, mulling a cap of 75,000 units per Chinese enterprise to prevent the chips from being used for military purposes or enabling China to build top-tier supercomputers. Chinese experts note that the U.S. containment strategy for China’s AI development has collapsed, as leading Chinese AI firms boast ample computing power reserves and are adopting cautious investment approaches. Industry insiders urge China to stay committed to independent innovation to gain the upper hand in technological competition.

# Domestic Companies

On the eve of the departure of Qwen’s “soul figure,” Jack Ma led Alibaba’s management to signal a firm AI strategy and unwavering investment in AI.

To compete with Apple and Samsung, Xiaomi officially announced an annual update plan for its self-developed SoCs and plans to partner with Google Gemini to build an international AI assistant. Xiaomi President Lu Weibing also stated that the company aims to integrate its Xuanjie O1 chip, HyperOS operating system, and AI assistant into a single device for the first time this year, with an initial launch in the Chinese market.

# Overseas Macro

Trump formally nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair to replace Jerome Powell. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will succeed the current Fed Chair Powell. The nomination has been officially submitted to the Senate.

**Fed Beige Book**: U.S. economy grows slightly to moderately across most regions; sales constrained, inflation moderate. The Fed’s Beige Book notes that economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace in most U.S. regions in recent weeks, but an increasing number of districts reported flat or declining activity. In many districts, heightened economic uncertainty, rising price sensitivity, and reduced spending by low-income consumers weighed on sales performance. Employment levels remained broadly stable, though businesses are leveraging AI to boost efficiency. Eight of the Fed’s 12 districts reported moderate inflation.

**Fed Governor Mester takes dovish stance**: Middle East tensions have not altered rate-cut outlook; labor market still needs policy support. Mester said Wednesday that despite market volatility from U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the Fed should continue cutting rates by 25 basis points to a neutral level, arguing the labor market still requires policy backing. Her remarks contrast with the cautious stance of most officials, who emphasize heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and favor holding rates steady. Rising oil prices have led markets to dial back 2026 rate-cut expectations. Friday’s February jobs report is seen as key to resolving internal divisions.

**Cleveland Fed President**: Impact of Iran conflict hard to assess; supports keeping rates unchanged for “quite some time.” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated it is too early to evaluate the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the U.S. She argued the Fed should focus on curbing inflation and explicitly backed maintaining current interest rates for “a considerable period.”

**Stock market crash! South Korea**: To activate a 100-trillion-won market stabilization plan if volatility worsens. South Korea’s stock market plunged for two consecutive days, with the KOSPI falling over 12%. To address excessive turmoil, South Korea’s financial regulators vowed to proactively launch the 100-trillion-won stabilization plan if declines deepen. Regulators will also closely monitor and severely punish market-disrupting violations, urging investors to stay rational based on economic confidence and avoid excessive panic.

**Middle East conflict pricks high leverage in Asian equities?** Overcrowded AI semiconductor trades and historically high leveraged positions triggered concentrated unwinding amid external shocks.

**BOJ Governor sticks to rate-hike stance but flags major economic risks from Iran conflict**. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue raising rates if economic projections are met. He emphasized close monitoring of the Middle East situation, warning the conflict could have a “significant impact” on Japan’s and the global economy via rising energy costs and market volatility, while also watching for price distortions from yen depreciation. Ueda added that wage growth is key to achieving the 2% inflation target, and policy pace will depend on the interplay between geopolitical risks and inflation.

# Overseas Companies

Occupations OpenAI predicted three years ago would be unaffected by AI are now being disrupted at four times the speed. AI has impacted 93% of U.S. jobs to varying degrees; the annual growth rate of AI exposure across all occupations has jumped from 2% to 9%, a 4.5-fold acceleration. AI is triggering a “meltdown” in labor market structure: entry-level roles are closing, middle layers are collapsing, and a tiny elite of “AI masters” at the top are reaping all the rewards.

# Industries/Concepts

## 1. Power Grid

According to The Information on March 2 local time, grid operators in Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Midwest have successively推进 transmission expansion plans totaling $75 billion in recent months, with projects approved by regulators. The core initiative is building a batch of 765kV ultra-high-voltage AC transmission lines—the highest operating voltage level in the U.S. This construction wave will surge the total length of U.S. 765kV ultra-high-voltage lines from around 2,000 miles currently, granting greater pricing power. Market observers note sustained demand growth and cost pressures across key sectors have driven this round of price adjustments. The trend reflects persistent supply-demand dynamics in the high-end passive component market, and downstream industrial clients should monitor supply chain cost changes. Brokerage analysts predict that unlike past cycles driven by consumer electronics demand, the current upcycle for passive components will be longer and more sustainable, fueled by rapid demand growth from emerging downstream sectors like AI servers, new energy vehicles, and industrial control, plus continuous penetration of domestic manufacturers in high-end categories.

## 6. Satellite Internet

According to China Securities Journal, the Institute of Optics and Electronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, recently joined forces with Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Xi’an Branch of China Academy of Space Technology, University of Space and Information, and Guangyou Starry Sky to conduct a satellite-ground laser communication experiment at Lijiang Gaomeigu Observatory, achieving a milestone breakthrough. Using a self-developed 1.8m laser communication ground station, the team successfully established a stable laser link with a geostationary orbit satellite, realizing bidirectional high-speed communication of symmetric 1 Gbps uplink and downlink at a maximum distance of 40,740.96 km. It also set records for 4-second fast link establishment and uninterrupted link maintenance for over 3 hours. This marks China’s systematic breakthrough in engineering challenges of ultra-long-distance high-speed bidirectional interaction and long-term stability in high-orbit satellite-ground laser communication, a critical step toward building a future integrated space-terrestrial network.

**Commentary**: Compared with traditional microwave communication, satellite-ground laser communication has three core advantages: ultra-high bandwidth (communication rates exceeding 120 Gbps, dozens of times that of microwave), strong anti-interference, and high security. As the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, 2026 has explicitly listed laser communication as a key enabling technology for strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and 6G. China has formed a complete industrial chain from key technology R&D and in-orbit verification to initial commercial application. As satellite-ground laser communication moves from lab validation to large-scale application, it will lay a critical foundation for an integrated space-terrestrial network.

## 7. Liquid Cooling

According to Jiemian News, Dion Harris, head of NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure, recently unveiled the internal architecture and supply chain details of the next-generation Vera Rubin computing system at the company’s California headquarters. Harris noted that besides 72 Rubin GPUs and 36 Vera CPUs, the entire rack contains 1.3 million components. NVIDIA revealed the new system’s power consumption is roughly double that of its predecessor, but with a 10-fold improvement in performance per watt over Blackwell, overall computing energy efficiency will surge. Due to the increased power draw, Vera Rubin is NVIDIA’s first fully liquid-cooled system.

**Commentary**: China Securities Journal points out that with surging AI computing demand and chip power consumption exceeding air-cooling limits, liquid cooling has shifted from “optional” to “mandatory.” China mandates that new large data centers built in 2026 must have a PUE below 1.15, tightened to 1.05–1.15 in first-tier cities—liquid cooling is the only solution meeting this standard. Driven by AI computing explosion, policy mandates, and technological maturity, the sector will enter a high-growth phase over the next 3–5 years. Penetration is projected to rise from less than 20% currently to 82% by 2030, becoming a 100-billion-yuan high-growth track.

## 8. 3D Printing

According to China Securities Journal, Australian aerospace firm Hypersonix Launch Systems announced the successful launch of its next-generation DART AE hypersonic vehicle in Virginia, U.S. DART AE is the world’s first hypersonic vehicle fully manufactured from high-temperature-resistant alloys using 3D printing technology, equipped with an air-breathing SPARTAN scramjet engine and innovatively using green hydrogen as fuel. This combination not only boosts propulsion efficiency but also drastically reduces the environmental footprint of traditional fuels. The flight test primarily validated the reliability of 3D printing, high-temperature-resistant materials, and autonomous guidance systems under real hypersonic conditions.

**Commentary**: Reports note 3D printing, as a transformative industry technology, is seeing wider applications across sectors amid cost reduction, standardization, and rising demand, driving manufacturing into the smart manufacturing era. It also shows huge potential in healthcare, education, construction, and other industries.

# Today’s News Preview

- The Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress opens in Beijing.

- U.S. January trade balance.

- U.S. weekly initial jobless claims.

- Eurozone January retail sales.

- Earnings reports from Alibaba, JD.com, Bilibili, and Costco.

- Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

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# Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is volatile and investments involve risks. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should assess whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment decisions based on this article are at the user’s own risk.