The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.1%, with TSMC surging 6% to a record high, directly driving the Asian tech stock index to hit a historical record simultaneously. Brent crude futures rose 2.1% to $107.97 a barrel at one point, while U.S. and European stock index futures subsequently gave up their early gains. Meanwhile, nickel prices climbed to a near two-year high, and Bitcoin approached the $80,000 mark, with global markets showing a divergent trend.
According to relevant sources, Iran has submitted a new plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to the United States through Pakistani intermediaries. This news directly pushed the Asia-Pacific market to rise across the board on Monday, with tech stocks leading the gains and hitting a historical record. However, oil prices subsequently rebounded, and U.S. and European stock index futures erased their early gains, as market sentiment shifted from optimism to prudence, with a mix of risk-averse and risk-taking sentiments.
According to reports from authoritative media, Iranian sources revealed that Iran has conveyed a three-phase negotiation plan to the U.S. side through intermediaries. Driven by this positive news, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.1%, and the emerging markets index climbed to a record high. Among them, TSMC surged 6% to a record high, becoming the core driving force behind the Asian tech stock index hitting a historical record; Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.4%, and South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.83%, both hitting record highs, leading to a broad rally in the Asia-Pacific stock market.
However, the optimistic sentiment in the Asia-Pacific market failed to effectively spread to other global markets. Brent crude futures rose 2.1% to $107.97 a barrel at one point, while U.S. and European stock index futures subsequently gave up their early gains and failed to continue the upward momentum of the Asia-Pacific market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%, and at the same time, nickel prices climbed to a near two-year high, and Bitcoin approached the $80,000 mark, with various assets showing obvious divergence.
The global market will face multiple key tests this week: the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will successively announce their monetary policy decisions, and tech giants with a combined market value of about $16 trillion, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple, will also release their quarterly earnings reports one after another. Keith Lerner, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Market Strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said, "This will be a crucial week," and the earnings results need to "validate the recent market rally," and whether they can meet market expectations will directly affect the subsequent trend.
Specific market data are as follows:
Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed up 1.4% at 60,537.36; Japan's TOPIX Index closed up 0.5% at 3,735.28. South Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed up 2.2% at 6,615.03, among which SK Hynix rose 7%, performing brightly. TSMC surged 6% to a record high, continuing to drive the Asian tech stock index to hit a historical record simultaneously.
S&P 500 futures were stable with little change; the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1%; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.32%; Brent crude futures rose 2.1% to $107.97 a barrel at one point; spot gold rose slightly by 0.13% to $4,714.39.
London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel futures performed prominently on Monday, rising to a high of $19,365 per ton, the highest level since June 2024, then slightly pulled back to around $19,260, with the highest daily gain reaching 1.8%. Other base metals showed divergent performance, with copper prices rising slightly by 0.1% to $13,325 per ton and tin prices falling by 0.4% to $50,150 per ton.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin rose to a high of $79,488 on Monday, an increase of 1.6%, hitting the highest level since January 31 this year, and had briefly stood above the $80,000 integer mark earlier; Ethereum rose synchronously by 1.7%, following Bitcoin's upward trend.
Iran's New Plan: Strait First, Nuclear Talks Delayed
According to relevant media citing informed sources, Iran delivered a new plan to the White House through Pakistani intermediaries, proposing to extend the ceasefire period to promote the two sides towards a permanent truce, and clearly stated that nuclear negotiations can only start after the United States lifts the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports show that Pakistan has forwarded the plan to the White House, but there is no clear news yet on whether the U.S. side intends to follow up. Trump is expected to convene a special meeting on the Iranian situation with the national security and foreign policy team in the White House Situation Room on Monday. So far, the White House has not immediately responded to the above reports.
It is worth noting that before this news emerged, efforts to restart U.S.-Iran negotiations suffered another setback last weekend. Trump canceled the plan to send envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad to negotiate with Iran on Saturday, and posted on a social platform saying, "Wasted too much time on the trip, too many things! There is a lot of infighting and chaos within their 'leadership'." The Iranian side clearly stated that it will not conduct any negotiations under threats. At the same time, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, and there are reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has boarded two cargo ships near this strategic waterway, further increasing the uncertainty of the regional situation.
Yugo Tsuboi, Chief Strategist at Daiwa Securities, said, "This news is in line with the market's expectation that the U.S. and Iran will eventually reach an agreement, and it comes at an advantageous time when the earnings season is at its peak." Sean Keane, Chief Asia-Pacific Strategist at JB Drax Honore, pointed out, "The market is encouraged every time there is news of negotiation progress, but as traders become increasingly fatigued, the market's positive response to each new announcement is weakening. However, the stock market is always looking for opportunities to rise, and usually does not need too many reasons."
Tech Stocks Lead the Rally; Asia-Pacific Stocks Hit Record Highs in Multiple Areas
Investment enthusiasm in the field of artificial intelligence and positive news about Iran's strait reopening plan have jointly driven Asian tech stocks to strengthen significantly. Among them, TSMC rose 6% on Monday to a record high, becoming the core driving force of this round of rally in the Asia-Pacific stock market. Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg Strategist, pointed out, "As long as energy prices remain within a predictable range, global investors are willing to bet on excess returns brought by the artificial intelligence theme."
Looking back at the performance of U.S. stocks last Friday, the S&P 500 Index closed up 0.8% to 7,165.08, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.63% to 24,836.60, both hitting intraday record highs; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.61 points (0.16%) to 49,230.71, showing a divergent trend. It is worth noting that the S&P 500 Index has risen nearly 10% since the end of March, and is expected to record its largest monthly gain since the end of 2020.
Central Bank Decisions and Tech Earnings Constitute a Dual Stress Test
The global market will undergo a dual test of central bank monetary policy and corporate fundamentals this week. Currently, investors generally expect the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to maintain their existing interest rates, but traders will closely pay attention to the wording of central bank officials on the inflation risks caused by oil supply disruptions due to the Iran war, which will become an important basis for judging the subsequent policy direction. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting will start on Tuesday, and the market is closely watching its policy trends. Rachana Mehta of Maybank Asset Management said that investors who buy five to six-year bonds can still obtain positive returns this year solely through interest rate spread income.
Earlier, the Department of Justice closed its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, clearing the way for Kevin Warsh's nomination, and market bets on the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts within the year have heated up. Affected by this news, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.32% on Monday, reflecting subtle changes in market expectations for monetary policy.
In terms of earnings reports, this week will see an intensive disclosure period for tech giants: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta will collectively release their quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. These five companies have a combined market value of about $16 trillion, accounting for a quarter of the total market value of the S&P 500 Index, and their earnings performance will directly affect the trend of global tech stocks and the overall market sentiment. Francis Tan, Chief Asia Strategist at Indosuez Wealth Singapore, said that investors are still encouraged by strong corporate profits and the artificial intelligence boom, "while keeping an eye on the U.S.-Iran situation on the sidelines" to avoid the impact of geopolitical risks on investment decisions.
Nickel Prices Climb to Near Two-Year High
LME nickel futures performed impressively on Monday, rising to a high of $19,365 per ton, the highest level since June 2024, then slightly pulled back to around $19,260, with the highest daily gain reaching 1.8%. Data show that nickel prices have risen about 10% since the outbreak of the Iran war, and have been in an upward channel.
Analysis suggests that the main factors driving nickel prices higher include Indonesia's reduction in mining quotas and the global sulfur shortage. The global sulfur shortage has significantly disrupted Indonesia's mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production and African copper leaching operations, further tightening the supply side of the nickel market. Jinrui Futures pointed out in a relevant research report, "Nickel market sentiment remains positive, and traders are waiting for further upward catalysts, pointing to a sharp reduction in MHP output." Other base metals showed divergent performance, with copper prices rising slightly by 0.1% to $13,325 per ton and tin prices falling by 0.4% to $50,150 per ton.
Bitcoin Approaches the $80,000 Mark
The cryptocurrency market continues to recover. Bitcoin rose to a high of $79,488 on Monday, an increase of 1.6%, hitting the highest level since January 31 this year, and had briefly stood above the $80,000 integer mark earlier, showing strong upward momentum; Ethereum rose synchronously by 1.7%, forming a linked upward trend with Bitcoin.
In terms of monthly performance, Bitcoin has risen 16% so far in April, and is expected to record its first double-digit monthly gain since May 2025. The market capital side shows positive signals. Strategy Inc., a Bitcoin-holding company owned by Michael Saylor, has bought a total of $3.9 billion worth of Bitcoin this month, the largest single-month purchase in nearly a year. In addition, U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of about $2.5 billion this month, which is expected to be twice that of March. Previously, institutional buyers had net outflows for four consecutive months, and this capital inflow reflects a shift in institutional attitudes towards cryptocurrencies.
Rachael Lucas, Analyst at BTC Markets, pointed out that $80,000 is the break-even point for many recent buyers, and this price usually sees profit-taking pressure, which may suppress Bitcoin's subsequent trend. She also warned: "The probability of reaching a U.S.-Iran peace talks has dropped significantly, and this macro pressure may lead to a overall repricing of risky assets, and cryptocurrencies will not be able to stand alone."
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market is risky, and investment needs to be prudent. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Investment based on this is at your own risk.
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