Qatar's LNG exports have been interrupted for the longest time since 2008, and Asia and Europe have begun a

# Zhang Yaqi

Source: Wallstreetcn

Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex has halted exports for five consecutive days following attacks, marking its longest shutdown since 2008. Hit by the Middle East conflict, the global LNG supply gap has reached 20% of total world supply, triggering an intercontinental bidding war between Europe and Asia, with a large number of cargo ships diverting to Asia. With limited production increases in the U.S. and other countries, the widely expected 2026 supply surplus has nearly vanished, leaving the global energy market under severe shortage and price pressures.

Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility has recorded zero exports for five straight days, the longest shutdown on record since at least 2008. The resulting global LNG supply crisis is reshaping trade flows — vessels originally bound for Europe are turning around toward Asia, launching an intercontinental scramble for supplies.

The shockwave from the Middle East conflict has quickly spread to global energy markets. According to ship-tracking data from Bloomberg, at least eight LNG tankers originally scheduled for Europe have diverted to Asia since the conflict began, with the trend accelerating in recent days. Meanwhile, a smaller LNG export terminal in Abu Dhabi is also unable to ship normally. Combined, the supply shortfall from the two locations accounts for about 20% of global LNG supply. Natural gas prices in both Europe and Asia have surged sharply over the past week, raising concerns over inflation and economic stability.

Under multiple pressures, the industry’s previous consensus of an LNG supply surplus in 2026 has all but disappeared. Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank, said:

“Even with increased supply from the US, the market is now facing a shortage. The timeline for an LNG surplus has been delayed by a full year.”

### Five days of zero exports, longest shutdown on record

According to Bloomberg analysis of Kpler ship-tracking data, no fully loaded tankers have left Ras Laffan in five days — a situation unseen since records began in 2008. No LNG vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28.

The shutdown was triggered by an Iranian drone attack on the facility early last week. Although Ras Laffan briefly loaded several cargoes from storage tanks after production stopped, the last shipment departed last Friday, with no export activity since.

Based on 2025 production data, Bloomberg estimates that each additional day of disruption removes roughly three Qatari LNG cargoes from the market. Most Qatari supplies go to Asian importers, which are now seeking alternative sources or directly cutting deliveries to end-users such as fertilizer plants and industrial consumers.

### Vessels divert, Europe and Asia compete for limited spot supplies

Tight competition for global LNG is already shifting physical flows. At least eight LNG tankers originally heading to Europe have diverted to Asia, with the trend becoming especially pronounced in recent days.

Europe faces urgent pressure: after heavy winter drawdowns, gas storage levels have fallen sharply, and it needs to rebuild inventories before summer. In Asia, temperatures in many regions are expected to be higher than usual, lifting natural gas demand for air conditioning over the coming months.

BloombergNEF data show global LNG imports totaled 8 million metric tons last week, down 26% week-on-week, while supply fell 16%. Buyers in India, Bangladesh and Thailand have turned to the spot market to replenish stocks, but some March delivery tenders — including those from India — have failed due to scarce sellers and high prices.

Mathieu Utting, analyst at Rystad Energy, warned: “If this situation lasts for months and drags deep into summer, there will not be enough alternative LNG supply available to meet global demand.” He noted that the other two major LNG exporters — the U.S. and Australia — are already running at near-full capacity with little room to increase utilization.

### Surplus expectations dashed; Morgan Stanley and others cut outlooks

Major institutions are gradually repricing the disruption’s impact on the market balance. In a research note, Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott said the bank had previously forecast an LNG market surplus of 6–8 million tons this year, but a Qatari shutdown longer than one month would push the market “quickly into deficit.”

Rabobank’s Florence Schmit provided a more specific timeline: each week of Qatari production downtime cuts the expected surplus by about 1.5 million tons. At that rate, the market could flip from surplus to deficit within five weeks. In addition, Qatar Energy has decided to delay the start of a major expansion project, creating further downward pressure on 2026 supply.

### U.S. growth limited; new capacity cannot fill gap in short term

There are strong doubts over whether the U.S., the world’s top LNG exporter, can fill the supply vacuum in time. Although several new projects are under development, capacity will come online gradually and cannot provide effective replacement in the short term.

The Golden Pass project in Texas, a joint venture between Qatar and ExxonMobil, is near completion but not yet in service. Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi facility is still expanding gradually, while Venture Global is ramping up output at its Plaquemines project in Louisiana and building a third project, CP2.

All these incremental supplies are medium-to-long-term developments and offer little near-term support to the rapidly tightening spot market. Rising spot procurement costs are pressuring cash-strapped emerging market economies. Further prolongation of the shutdown would raise the risk of localized shortages.

## Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market involves risks; investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual investors’ specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Investors should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein suit their particular circumstances. Any investment based on this article is at your own risk.