Trump issued a ceasefire signal, Asian stocks rebounded, South Korean stocks closed up 5.3%, technology stocks led the gains, and oil prices plunged

# Zhao Ying, Zhang Yaqi

Source: Wallstreetcn

Trump Hints Iran War “Will End Soon”; Asia-Pacific Market Sentiment Reverses Sharply. Nikkei 225 Closes Up 2.9%, KOSPI Rallies 5.3% to 5,532.57. Oil Plunges Over 10%. Yet Institutions Warn: Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk Remains Unresolved; Market Optimism May Be Only a Brief Reprieve After Extreme Panic.

Trump’s hint that the war with Iran is nearing an end sparked a sharp rebound in Asia-Pacific equities on Tuesday, while crude oil prices retreated dramatically from record highs. However, multiple analysts cautioned that the market move is more of a technical correction from extreme risk aversion, and the supply shock from a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz still poses a tangible threat to the global economy.

According to Xinhua News Agency, at a press conference held in Miami, Florida, on local time March 9, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the war against Iran “will end soon” but “not this week.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 3% on Tuesday, led by tech stocks; European stock futures pointed to a 1.3% gain. Brent crude slumped 6.1% to $92.90 a barrel, having earlier fallen as much as 11%. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened broadly against major G10 currencies, gold and silver both advanced, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up 2 basis points to 4.11%.

Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone Group, said: “What we are seeing now is more of a bounce after extreme risk aversion, rather than a genuine return to a full risk-on environment.” Market risk gauges remain near levels seen when Trump announced global tariffs last year, with cross-asset volatility showing little sign of easing.

- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.9% at 54,248.39.

- Japan’s Topix Index rose 2.5% to 3,664.28.

- South Korea’s KOSPI closed 5.3% higher at 5,532.57.

- European stock futures indicated a 1.3% rise.

- Pakistan’s KSE-30 Index surged 8%, triggering a trading halt.

- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed 2 basis points to 4.11%.

- India’s 5-year government bond yield fell 5 basis points to 6.34%.

- The U.S. Dollar Spot Index was little changed.

- The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1619.

- Brent crude plunged 6.1% to $92.90 a barrel, having fallen as much as 11% earlier.

- Spot gold rose 0.7% to $5,175.14 an ounce.

- Bitcoin gained 1.4% to $69,947.04.

## Crude’s Wild Swings, Historic Volatility Sound Alarm

On Monday, the crude oil market witnessed its largest single-day swing since oil briefly turned negative during the COVID-19 pandemic—WTI futures swung by a massive $38 in a single day, spiking to near $120 a barrel before retreating sharply as major economies discussed releasing strategic reserves. Even after Tuesday’s steep drop, Brent crude is still up more than 50% year-to-date.

Spot gold rose 1% to $5,183.76 an ounce. S&P 500 futures edged down 0.2%, suggesting the recovery rally that began on Wall Street on Monday may be nearing its end. Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, said: “This is likely a technical rebound, not a signal of any long-term trend reversal. Until we see tangible evidence of the conflict ending, it remains too risky to reposition into growth sectors, though some investors may seek value names while waiting for a resolution.”

## War-End Expectations Ignite Asia-Pacific Markets

According to Xinhua News Agency, at a press conference held in Miami, Florida, on local time March 9, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the war against Iran “will end soon” but “not this week.”

South Korea’s KOSPI led gains across the Asia-Pacific, rising more than 6% at one point during the session. Samsung Electronics jumped nearly 10%, while SK Hynix surged 12%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 3%, recovering from its biggest one-day drop since April last year in the previous session. The Topix Index extended gains to 3% during the day. Japan’s 20-year government bond yield fell 4 basis points to 3.015%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose about 1.5%, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 2.2% overall, reversing Monday’s 3.7% slump.

Notably, market interpretations of the signals diverge. Eric Van Nostrand, chief investment officer at Lazard Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television that Trump’s remarks at the press conference “are not the most reliable signals,” and investors have reason to remain cautious.

“There is a great deal of mispriced optimism in the market that the situation will de-escalate quickly, as it has in past Middle East tensions,” he said. “But given the potential for a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this time is different, and it will have profound and material implications for the global economy.”

Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone Group, also warned that what we are seeing is more of a brief respite after extreme risk aversion, rather than a genuine inflection point back to full risk appetite.

To be continued…

## Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Markets are subject to risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment based on this article is at your own risk.