Live situation in the Strait of Hormuz: "Nearly stagnant" for 7 consecutive days, with only Iranian ships passing through in the past 24 hours

# Dong Jing

Source: Wallstreetcn

Ship-tracking data shows that only one Iran-related bulk carrier left the Persian Gulf in the past 24 hours, with **no vessels entering from the opposite direction**, marking a **de facto suspension of commercial shipping**. Very few merchant ships have attempted to pass through the strait by identifying as “Chinese-owned,” with few others following suit. The crisis has caused oil inventories to back up in multiple Gulf countries, forcing production cuts. Saudi Arabia has opened a Red Sea alternative route for record exports, yet actual diversion volumes remain far below theoretical potential.

The commercial shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues to deepen.

On March 9, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, the world’s most important energy artery has been in a state of “near standstill” for the seventh consecutive day. Only one Iran-related bulk carrier departed the Persian Gulf in the past 24 hours, with no ships entering from the Gulf of Oman. The last commercial vessel with no obvious links to Iran — the Chinese-owned bulk carrier *Sino Ocean* — transited the strait as early as last Saturday.

As reported by Wallstreetcn, the vessel broadcast the signal **“CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW”** while passing through the narrowest section of the strait, becoming the second ship to transit using the “Chinese shipowner” identifier after the *Iron Lady*. However, such cases remain rare, and no major number of Chinese cargo ships have followed this navigation strategy.

The strait blockage is rapidly spreading up the supply chain. According to Bloomberg, as tankers cannot enter or exit the Persian Gulf normally, onshore storage tanks are backing up, and some refineries have reduced output. Iraq has been forced to cut oil production, with Kuwait and the UAE following suit. As of last Friday, only nine empty supertankers remained in the Gulf.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is shifting crude exports to the Red Sea route. In the first seven days of March, the number of supertankers loaded at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea terminals of Yanbu and Al Muajjiz hit a record high. Analysts warn, however, that major uncertainty remains over whether this alternative corridor can function sustainably.

---

## Only Iranian Vessels Moving; Commercial Shipping Effectively Halted

According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, during the latest observation window, only one Iran-related bulk carrier left the Persian Gulf in 24 hours, with **zero incoming traffic from the Gulf of Oman**. This means **two-way commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped**.

Repeated missile and drone attacks on merchant ships are the direct cause of the shipping standstill. Bloomberg notes that ongoing missile and drone activity poses a “critical risk” to all nearby vessels, prompting most commercial shipowners to avoid the waterway.

Wallstreetcn reported that the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) noted on March 6 that only two confirmed commercial transits occurred in the past 24 hours, both bulk carriers rather than oil tankers, with traffic falling to single digits. Data from Lloyd’s Market Association shows around 1,000 ships with a total value of about $25 billion remain trapped in the Gulf and surrounding waters, mostly in a wait-and-see mode.

Notably, Bloomberg warned that large-scale signal jamming and transponder switching in the region make real-time ship tracking difficult. Vessel positions are often only confirmed days later when they reappear on satellite feeds, meaning actual traffic levels may be understated.

---

## “Chinese Identity” Used as Passage Card, But Few Follow

Among the tiny number of successful transits, marking vessels as “Chinese-owned” has become a risk-avoidance tactic for some ships, according to Wallstreetcn.

On March 5 Beijing time, the bulk carrier *Iron Lady* changed its transponder to “China Owner” and safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast, as reported by Jiefang Daily.

Subsequently, on the morning of March 7, the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier *Sino Ocean* used the same strategy, continuously broadcasting “CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW” while crossing the narrowest part of the strait, becoming the second vessel to do so.

The practice has sparked imitation in commercial shipping. Analyses citing Marine Traffic data show at least 10 ships — including container ships and oil tankers — have modified their transponders to claim Chinese links in the past week.

Matthew Wright, an analyst at shipping data firm Kpler, stated:

> “They can change almost anything, put whatever they want. Crews are trying to obscure association with specific ports, destinations, or nationalities — there’s an element of deception here.”

He added that disguising identity to avoid risk is not new, dating back to Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea in 2023.

Despite the *Iron Lady*’s successful passage, Jiefang Daily reported on the afternoon of March 7 that such cases remain isolated, with **no major follow-up by additional Chinese cargo ships**.

---

## Saudi Red Sea Exports Hit Record, But Alternative Route Has Risks

With Persian Gulf export routes effectively blocked, Saudi Arabia is actively activating alternative lines.

Saudi Arabia is pumping crude via the East-West Pipeline to its Red Sea coast. In the first seven days of March, eight supertankers — each carrying around 2 million barrels — were loaded at Yanbu and nearby Al Muajjiz. If this pace continues for the rest of the month, Red Sea exports could reach around 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly 50% above any monthly level since late 2016.

According to Saudi Aramco, the East-West Pipeline has a nominal capacity of about 7 million bpd, but pre-crisis throughput was less than half, leaving theoretical spare capacity of around 5 million bpd. However, the alternative route faces two major obstacles:

1. The facilities have never operated at full nominal capacity, so long-term high-intensity use is unproven.

2. Most Saudi crude buyers are in Asia, yet most shipments from Yanbu head north toward the Suez Canal, with very few going south to Asia. Only one supertanker, the *Arsan*, has sailed south from Yanbu to Malaysia so far this month.

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi movement has threatened to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping if the U.S. and Israel strike Iran, putting the security of the Red Sea corridor in doubt.

Goldman Sachs estimates that net diversions via pipelines and the ports of Yanbu and Fujairah over the past four days totaled only about **900,000 bpd**, far below the theoretical diversion capacity of 3.6 million bpd.

PREVIOUS：Morning News NEXT：The wave of production shutdowns in the Middl