Morning News

# Market Overview

Source: Wall Street News

## Market Overview

Energy and tech stocks powered a rebound in the two major U.S. stock indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq turned positive after falling more than 1% intraday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its second consecutive daily decline. The S&P 500 energy sector rose nearly 2%. Among the "Magnificent Seven," only Google and Amazon closed lower; Nvidia gained 3%, while Google retreated more than 1%. Lumentum and Coherent, both backed by Nvidia, surged nearly 12% and over 15% respectively. Palantir rose nearly 6%, and Berkshire Hathaway fell nearly 5% following its earnings report.

European stocks slumped sharply, with the pan-European index posting its largest drop in over three months. Middle East conflict threats to key oil shipping routes weighed on markets. Travel stocks TUI fell nearly 10%, Air France-KLM dropped over 9%, while shipping giant Maersk rose nearly 8% and Equinor gained over 8%.

Soaring oil prices stoked inflation concerns and diminished rate-cut expectations, pressuring U.S. Treasury prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its lowest level since April last year (when equivalent tariffs were announced) before rebounding more than 10 basis points. The U.S. Dollar Index rose over 1% intraday, reaching a six-week high.

Offshore yuan fell more than 500 pips intraday, breaking below 6.91 for the first time in two weeks. Cryptocurrencies rallied during the session; Bitcoin briefly surged above $70,000, gaining nearly 8% from its daily low.

Following Iran's attack, crude oil initially spiked over 10% before giving back more than half its gains, closing up over 6%—its largest increase since the Israel-Iran mutual attacks last June. Saudi Arabia shut down its largest domestic oil refinery, and European gasoline futures jumped over 20% intraday. Qatar suspended operations at the world's largest LNG export facility, sending European natural gas soaring over 50% during the session.

Gold hit a one-month high, with futures rising over 3% at one point. After the release of U.S. manufacturing data, spot gold turned lower in short-term trading, while silver hit a fresh daily low with spot silver falling nearly 8%. LME aluminum rebounded nearly 2% to a one-month high amid supply concerns from the Iran conflict.

During Asian trading hours, the Shanghai Composite opened lower but closed up nearly 0.5%. China's "Big Three Oil Companies" all hit their daily limit up for the first time in history, triggering a surge in limit-up moves across energy and chemical commodities. The Hang Seng Tech Index plummeted nearly 3%.

## Key News

### China

- Amid overseas market volatility, MiniMax reported 2025 revenue growth of 158.9% year-on-year, with adjusted net loss widening 2.7% to $250 million, while gross margins improved significantly. During the earnings call, the company stated it would focus on "multimodality" and "high quality," moving beyond pure "model competition" to evolve into an AI platform ecosystem.

- Alibaba's Qianwen launched its first AI glasses, fully integrated with the Qianwen App, priced from 1,997 yuan.

### Overseas

- Trump: War will not stop until objectives are met; does not rule out sending U.S. ground troops to Iran "if necessary." The "big wave" of strikes against Iran has not yet begun, operations could last four to five weeks, and preparations are in place for a longer duration. NATO and the UK both stated they would not participate in U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran. Kuwait reported "several" U.S. military aircraft crashed. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) stated that the use of force is unacceptable and called on all parties to exercise restraint.

- Iran: Will not negotiate with the U.S.; ceasefire timing will be determined by Iran. Has not attacked Saudi Aramco. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and all vessels attempting to pass will be targeted.

- Following attacks on Qatari facilities, operations at the world's largest LNG export plant were suspended, sending European natural gas futures soaring over 50% intraday. Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery was closed after a drone attack, with European gasoline futures jumping over 20% during the session.

- A U.S. federal appeals court rejected the Trump administration's request to extend tariff refund deadlines, sparking a $175 billion refund battle.

- U.S. February ISM Manufacturing Index expanded for the second consecutive month, with the prices index surging to a nearly four-year high. The Iran conflict could add further inflationary pressure.

- GPT-5.4 is reportedly launching next week, featuring a 2 million-context window and persistent state, eliminating frequent memory loss.

- Apple released the iPhone 17e and new iPad Air, maintaining prices while targeting the mid-range market.

- Report: ASML plans to expand chip manufacturing equipment into the advanced packaging sector.

## Market Closing

### U.S. & European Equities

- S&P 500: +0.04% to 6,881.62

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.15% to 48,904.78

- Nasdaq Composite: +0.36% to 22,748.857

- Europe STOXX 600: -1.65% to 623.36

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite: +0.47% to 4,182.59

- Shenzhen Component: -0.20% to 14,465.79

- ChiNext Index: -0.49% to 3,294.16

### Bond Market

- By market close, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at approximately 4.03%, up about 9 basis points on the day.

- The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield was around 3.48%, rising approximately 10 basis points intraday.

### Commodities

- WTI Crude Oil (April): +6.28% to $71.23/barrel

- Brent Crude Oil (April): +6.68% to $77.74/barrel

- COMEX Gold (April): +1.21% to $5,311.6/ounce

- COMEX Silver (May): -4.76% to $88.853/ounce

- LME Tin: -7% to $53,685/ton

- LME Copper: -1.8% to $13,108/ton

- LME Aluminum: +1.7% to $3,194/ton

# Detailed News Highlights

## Global Headlines

### China

- **MiniMax Reports Explosive Growth Amid Global Market Volatility**

MiniMax posted **158.9% YoY revenue growth** in 2025, while its **adjusted net loss widened by 2.7% to $250 million**, with a significant improvement in gross margins. During its earnings call, the company emphasized a strategic shift toward **multimodality and high quality**, moving beyond pure "model competition" to evolve into an **AI platform ecosystem**.

**Revenue Breakdown**:

- AI Products: **67.2%**

- Open Platform: **32.8%**

- Overseas Revenue: **73%**

The company reported a **net loss of $1.872 billion**, primarily due to accounting treatment of **convertible preferred shares** issued before its IPO, which are recognized as financial liabilities. The sharp valuation surge resulted in a massive book loss, while the **adjusted net loss of $250 million** was nearly flat compared to $244 million in the previous year.

During the call, founder **Yan Junjie** introduced a platform value formula: **Intelligence Density × Token Throughput**. The M2.5 model set an industry record in programming benchmarks, with **daily token consumption surging over 6x**. International markets contribute over **70%** of revenue, and the **M3 multimodal model** is scheduled for launch in **H2 2026**. The company is transitioning from a large model developer to an **AI platform enterprise**.

- **Alibaba Qianwen Launches First AI Glasses**

Alibaba's Qianwen officially released its **first AI glasses**, fully integrated with the Qianwen App, starting at **¥1,997**. Qianwen enters the hardware arena! The first AI glasses go on sale **March 8**, with flagship models starting at **¥1,997** after national subsidies. "Food delivery" and other utility functions will launch by the end of the month, with plans to enter global markets in **2026**. Goldman Sachs believes **2026 AI competition is a life-or-death battle for "default entry points"**. Doubao's daily active users have exceeded **100 million**, and Alibaba's push into AI hardware beyond apps signals an **escalation in competition**.

### Overseas

- **Trump Doesn't Rule Out Ground Troops for Iran; NATO Rejects Involvement**

Trump said Monday the "big wave" of strikes against Iran **has not yet begun**, and operations could last **four to five weeks**, with preparations for a much longer duration. The U.S. Defense Secretary stated no ground troops have been deployed to Iran, but **all options remain on the table**; the Secretary of State claimed success in neutralizing Iran's naval threat. U.S. media reported Pentagon officials fear the campaign could **spin out of control** and **deplete U.S. air defense stockpiles**.

**Macron** announced an expansion of France's nuclear arsenal; the French Foreign Minister said U.S.-Israeli actions lack legitimacy without UN Security Council approval. The UK Prime Minister ruled out participation in strikes against Iran.

**Massive explosions** reported at Iran's **Isfahan nuclear facility**; Iranian media denied attacking Saudi Aramco. Israel claimed to have destroyed **~600 Iranian targets**. Media reported Qatar and the UAE are lobbying allies for an **early end to U.S. operations**. The SCO stated the use of force is unacceptable, calling for restraint and an immediate halt to actions escalating tensions.

Trump said Sunday the war will **not stop until objectives are met**; Iran stated the ceasefire timeline is **Iran's decision**. U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader; Iranian retaliation killed **3 U.S. service members**. Trump vowed "revenge" and advocated for **regime change** in Iran; Iran's Foreign Minister responded firmly, stating its defense system will **determine the war's outcome**.

**Senior Iranian official Larijani**: "We will not negotiate with the U.S. The U.S. and Israel cannot strike and leave!" U.S. officials acknowledged no intelligence indicates Iran plans **preemptive strikes** against U.S. forces. Larijani explicitly rejected talks, emphasizing the U.S. and Israel cannot "**hit-and-run**" and Iran will retaliate. U.S. airstrikes continue, while Iran retaliates against multiple U.S. bases in the Middle East, **escalating regional conflict**.

**"Venezuela Model" an Option?** Trump: "Open to talks with Iran's new leadership"; Iran: "No". On Iran's future leadership, Trump referenced the "Venezuela Model," stating, "What we did in Venezuela, I think, is perfect." On "who will lead Iran," Trump claimed to have "**three very good options**" but "won't reveal them now—let's finish the job first."

**Kuwait Reports "Several" U.S. Warplanes Crash**. Kuwait's Defense Ministry spokesperson stated on social media that U.S. warplanes crashed Monday morning, without disclosing location, type, or number. Iran confirmed shooting down a **U.S. F-15 fighter jet** that attempted to enter Iranian airspace. The jet crashed in Kuwait due to its proximity to the border.

**Iran Announces Closure of Strait of Hormuz; Will Target All Vessels**. An advisor to the IRGC commander stated the **Strait of Hormuz is closed**, and Iran will target **all vessels attempting passage**.

- **Qatar Suspends World's Largest LNG Plant After Attack; European Gas Surges 50%**

Qatar Energy suspended operations at its **Ras Laffan complex**, the world's largest LNG export facility, following a drone attack. European natural gas futures **spiked over 50% intraday**; Goldman Sachs warned prices could **double** if the blockade persists. Two products will go on sale **March 11**. This fall, Apple will launch the **iPhone 18 series** and its **first foldable iPhone**, seen as the centerpiece of its annual hardware strategy.

- **ASML Plans Expansion into Advanced Packaging**

Lithography leader **ASML** is expanding into **advanced packaging equipment** to strengthen its AI supply chain position. The company will also research突破 existing **exposure field size limits** and ways to boost productivity via **AI integration**. ASML's **P/E ratio of 50x** far exceeds Nvidia's, reflecting **high market expectations**.

## Selected Research Reports

- **What Determines How Long Trump Can Fight? Missile Stockpiles**

As the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates with tough rhetoric, its duration is physically constrained by **air defense interceptor stockpiles**. Defending against Iranian retaliation typically requires **2-3 interceptors per target**. Sources warn U.S. and allied stockpiles of **THAAD, Patriot, and SM-3 systems** risk **depletion within days**, as consumption outpaces replenishment.

- **Brent Crude Targeting $120? JPMorgan Identifies Four Key Variables**

JPMorgan believes oil prices depend on: **barrels affected, conflict duration, alternative supply availability, and geopolitical trajectory**. If the conflict lasts **over three weeks**, Gulf producers' storage will be exhausted, forcing mandatory production cuts, potentially pushing Brent to **$100–120**.

- **Only 25 Days of Supply? JPMorgan Warns of Total Middle East Shutdown if Strait Blocked**

JPMorgan's latest analysis: A **full closure of the Strait of Hormuz** would leave **seven major Middle East producers with only 25 days of storage**, forcing a **complete production shutdown** thereafter. Tanker traffic has effectively halted, with daily exports plunging to **25% of normal**. Brent already includes a **$9–10 risk premium**, with global energy markets approaching a **physical supply crunch**.

- **Oil Could Hit $120 if Energy Infrastructure Targeted; Strait of Hormuz Key**

Citi raised its short-term Brent forecast to **$85**, warning of a surge to **$120** in an extreme scenario with infrastructure attacks. HSBC noted a Strait closure would render **OPEC+'s 4.6 mb/d spare capacity useless**, as it cannot be exported, creating **significant upward pressure** on prices.

- **$200 Oil if Strait Fully Blocked? Deutsche Bank Models Three Scenarios**

Deutsche Bank outlined three scenarios:

1. **Reopened within 2 weeks**: Oil falls to **$70s**

2. **Current "ambiguous blockade"**: Oil trades **$80–100**

3. **Full "enforced blockade" with mining**: OPEC+ production increases ineffective; Brent surges to **$200**

Damage to **Kharg Island** and blockade duration are **critical variables**.

- **JPMorgan: PetroChina Top Asia Energy Pick; Attractive Even at $60 Oil**

JPMorgan believes geopolitically driven oil price gains may be **unsustainable**, with upstream leaders as primary beneficiaries. **PetroChina** remains its top Asia energy pick, with **valuation appeal even at $60/bbl**. At $80/bbl, upside potential reaches **70%. Sinopec may underperform** due to surging VLCC freight rates.

- **Deutsche Bank: Strait Closure to Severely Hit Asian Energy; Japan, Korea Most Vulnerable**

Deutsche Bank warns **89% of Strait oil flows to Asia**, creating an **asymmetric shock**. Japan and Korea, with **87% and 81% import dependence**, face the greatest risk. Asian FX markets have already felt the impact.

- **Tanker Stocks to Win, Airlines to Bleed if Strait Blocked?**

Goldman Sachs analysis: A-share tanker names and **COSCO Shipping Energy** are top beneficiaries from **rerouting, restocking, and sanctions relief**, with potential daily earnings gains of **$30,000** in extreme scenarios. Airlines face the greatest earnings downside from **fuel cost spikes**. Container shipping rates are supported by **Red Sea rerouting and port congestion**. A prolonged blockade could push Brent above **$100**.

- **Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank Invest $110B in OpenAI: What's in It for Them?**

- **Amazon**: Invests **$50B** in installments for **model licensing** and **$100B** in cloud service contracts

- **Nvidia**: Invests **$30B** for a **3GW compute commitment** from OpenAI

- **SoftBank**: Invests **$30B** betting on OpenAI's IPO

- **Microsoft**: Did not participate in this round but retained **exclusive API rights**

# Domestic Macro

- **Will China and Russia provide military support to Iran if requested? Foreign Ministry responds.** According to The Paper, a reporter from Turkey’s Anadolu Agency asked whether China and Russia would consider offering military assistance to Iran upon request. Mao Ning responded: “Regarding the phone call between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, China has already issued a statement with details. I have no further information to provide.”

- **Qiushi Journal: Further enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation.** Enhancing consistency in macro policy orientation means ensuring coordination and alignment across all policies in terms of objectives, tools, timing, intensity, and pace—so that they work in the same direction and form synergy, avoid policy conflicts and offsetting effects, and unleash maximum policy effectiveness. This is also an inherent requirement for improving the macroeconomic governance system and boosting its efficiency.

# Domestic Companies

- **Lei Jun: Xiaomi robots are interning at auto factories; mass deployment of humanoid robots in Xiaomi plants over next 5 years.** Lei Jun revealed that Xiaomi robots have begun internships at automotive factories, achieving autonomous operation in scenarios such as self-tapping nut loading stations and bin handling. Key metrics including mean time between failures and single-task success rates are steadily improving. Lei Jun expects a large number of humanoid robots to enter Xiaomi’s factories for production work over the next five years.

- **National Integrated Circuit Fund leads 2.5-billion-yuan financing round for Galaxy General; embodied intelligence enters critical scaling phase just two months after last funding.**

# Global Macro

- **BOJ Deputy Governor gives no hint of March rate hike; says Middle East tensions may impact Japan’s economy and prices.** Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino offered no signal of a March rate hike; market pricing implies only a 6% chance of a BOJ rate increase this month. The Middle East situation has become the biggest wildcard—if oil price shocks persist, Japan’s inflation could rise an additional 2 percentage points to above 4%, potentially prompting the BOJ to act as early as March, with the April window still open.

# Global Companies

- **Seven major international marine P&I clubs announce suspension of war risk coverage for vessels in Persian Gulf starting March 5.** More than half of the world’s largest marine insurance group members declared full termination of war risk insurance for ships in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters from March 5. This means merchant vessels entering the region will be fully “uninsured” against war, terror attacks, and other risks. The move will sharply dampen shipowners’ risk appetite and bring massive volatility and uncertainty to Middle Eastern and global shipping.

- **Nvidia teams up with Nokia, Cisco, and other Western giants to “define” 6G, aiming to “connect AI to telecom.”** Jensen Huang stated that “the telecom industry will be the next sector reshaped by AI.” Partnering with Nokia, Cisco, Deutsche Telekom, and others, Nvidia is betting on 6G as the nervous system of the “Physical AI era”—enabling real-time connectivity between millions of autonomous machines, robots, and the physical world—using AI-RAN as an entry point. Commercial 6G is expected around 2030, but the battle for dominance has already begun.

- **Epicenter of the “private credit crisis”: Blue Owl, once Wall Street’s “hottest” firm.** Blue Owl Capital, a private credit giant managing $300 billion, suspended fund redemptions, triggering panic on Wall Street. Overexposure to software loans backfired amid AI disruption; heavy reliance on retail investors created fatal asset mismatches and runs. Could this private credit meltdown be the “canary in the coal mine” for the next financial crisis?

- **Blue Owl’s redemption halt triggers chain reaction; private credit fund fundraising plunges 40% in January.** Blackstone’s flagship Bcred raised just $1.1 billion in the first two months of this year, compared to over $1 billion monthly last year. Apollo’s Debt Solutions saw February sales of about $150 million, down 72% from its 2025 monthly average. The private credit industry faces a funding gap where redemptions exceed new subscriptions, sparking fears of renewed runs.

# Industries & Concepts

### 1. Waterproofing Materials

Brokerage grassroots research shows leading waterproofing material firms have issued price increase notices, with prices for engineering asphalt-based membranes and coatings to rise 5%–10%.

**Commentary**: Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities note that after credit risks from accounts receivable and rapid volume-price declines, waterproofing has become the most intensely consolidated sub-sector in consumer building materials in recent years, with rising concentration enabling price recovery. Price recovery attempts are expected to continue in 2026, with early-year asphalt prices laying a solid foundation for margin repair. In response to calls against cutthroat competition, top waterproofing firms issued price hikes in July 2025. While the impact on gross margin repair was not yet significant in Q3 2025 reports, the collective intent of leaders to improve profitability is clear.

### 2. SuperPoD

According to Securities Times, during MWC 2026 (March 2–5), Huawei showcased overseas for the first time its latest product lineup including Atlas 950 SuperPoD and TaiShan 950 SuperPoD, providing precise support for computing power demands across diverse scenarios.

### 3. Tungsten

According to China Tungsten Online, the tungsten market maintained its strong rally from February in the first week of March. On March 2, 65% wolframite concentrate stood at 830,000 yuan/ton, up 30,000 yuan/ton (80.4% YTD); 65% scheelite concentrate at 829,000 yuan/ton, up 30,000 yuan/ton (80.6% YTD); and ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 1.25 million yuan/ton, up 50,000 yuan/ton (86.6% YTD).

**Commentary**: Market participants believe constrained mine operating rates tighten supply, while geopolitical risk spillovers and strategic metal revaluation drive current pricing sentiment. On February 28, U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil artery. Rising global risk aversion and market volatility have further lifted tungsten’s strategic resource value, supporting strong price momentum.

### 4. Agentic Network

According to China Securities Journal, Huawei recently announced it will launch the **Agentic Core** solution at MWC 2026 Barcelona. Leveraging three engines—**network element intelligence, network intelligence, and service intelligence**—it addresses key challenges in the AI era: surging traffic, differentiated network demands, and new revenue streams for operators, driving large-scale commercialization of agentic networks.

**Commentary**: Agentic Core marks a shift from networks as “connection pipes” to “intelligent service hubs.” Through three-layer intelligence collaboration, it not only supports large-scale AI deployment but also unlocks a new business model for operators—from “traffic monetization” to “intelligent service monetization.” The solution will foster cross-industry innovation. GSMA Intelligence data shows global enterprises will allocate 10% of revenue to digital transformation from 2025 to 2030, with AI as a key focus. By providing standardized agent communication protocols, Agentic Core enables secure, efficient collaboration across sectors, accelerating digital transformation. It is poised to become a core technology direction for 6G core networks, redefining digital infrastructure for the next decade.

### 5. Quantum Technology

According to China Securities Journal, a team led by Yuan Zhiliang at the Beijing Academy of Quantum Information Sciences, in collaboration with Niu Zhichuan’s group at the Institute of Semiconductors, CAS, has made a breakthrough in solid-state quantum light sources, developing a high-efficiency, high-purity two-photon emitter. This work marks a critical milestone in achieving two-photon states from single quantum dot emitters.

**Commentary**: Quantum light sources are core components of quantum technology; deterministic two-photon sources play key roles in quantum metrology, imaging, and biomedical applications. Experiments show the new source exhibits strong two-photon bunching: 98.3% of emitted photons appear in pairs under pulsed excitation, with a two-photon emission efficiency of 29.9%—among the world’s top levels for solid-state quantum sources balancing high purity and efficiency. This breakthrough will advance the practical development of quantum light sources in China, supporting future deployment of quantum precision measurement and imaging.

### 6. Perovskite

Researchers from the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology (CAS), the National Key Laboratory of Solar Energy Conversion and Utilization, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology have achieved a breakthrough in buried interface engineering for perovskite solar cells. They pioneered a “solvate crystal pre-seeding” strategy, offering new hope for high-efficiency, scalable perovskite photovoltaic modules.

**Commentary**: China Securities Journal notes perovskite modules have reached 22% mass-production conversion efficiency. Their superior low-light performance and low temperature coefficient deliver actual power output over 10% above rated efficiency. The perovskite PV market is accelerating from lab to commercialization: global shipments are projected to reach 20 GW by 2030, with a market size of ~20 billion yuan and a CAGR exceeding 200%, positioning it as a key breakthrough for the “efficiency revolution” in photovoltaics.

# Today’s Key Events Preview

- Eurozone February CPI

- German Chancellor Merz to meet Trump in the U.S.

- UK Office for Budget Responsibility releases spring forecasts

- Speeches by New York Fed President Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari

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# Risk Warning & Disclaimer

The market involves risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not account for individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should assess whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein align with their particular circumstances. Investment decisions based on this material are at the user’s own risk.