The risk of conflict between the United States and Iran is superimposed, and

# Dong Jing

Source: Wall Street Insights

Data from Polymarket shows the market-implied probability of a U.S. military strike on Iran by March 15 has risen to 47%. Combined with the fact that South Korea’s Sinokor Group controls roughly one‑third of the world’s tradable VLCC capacity, daily charter rates for global Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have surged to $200,000, hitting a six‑year high. Geopolitical risks, capacity monopolization, and supply‑demand fundamentals are converging to reshape pricing mechanisms and transmit pressures to the crude oil market.

The global VLCC market is experiencing its sharpest rate shock in six years. A dual overlay of war risk premiums and an unprecedented wave of fleet consolidation has pushed freight rates to historic highs, with spillover effects now reaching physical crude prices and the entire tanker market.

On February 25, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia’s national shipping company Bahri recently chartered five VLCCs at daily rates as high as $200,000—the highest level recorded by the Baltic Exchange in six years. One vessel, the *DHT Jaguar*, was fixed at $208,000 per day.

Meanwhile, Polymarket data shows the market‑implied probability of a U.S. military strike on Iran by March 15 has climbed to 47%. Risks of a Strait of Hormuz closure are rapidly being priced into both freight rates and Brent crude futures, which remain above $70 per barrel.

Another critical driver behind the rate surge cannot be overlooked. As previously reported by Wall Street Insights, Bloomberg cited multiple industry veterans saying South Korea’s Sinokor Group has rapidly bought or leased a large number of vessels over the past one to two months. It now controls approximately 120 VLCCs, equivalent to roughly one‑third of the world’s tradable VLCC fleet.

Ole Hjertaker, CEO of shipping firm SFL Corp., stated bluntly: “Effectively, one party or a group of collaborators controls about one‑third of the available or traded VLCC fleet.” This highly concentrated market structure is reshaping global tanker pricing mechanisms.

## War Premium: Strait of Hormuz Risk Returns to Center Stage

The Strait of Hormuz has once again become the most sensitive geopolitical nerve in the global energy market.

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