The big question that determines AI deals: How much money can OpenAI raise this round?

# Source: Wall Street Insights  

By Dong Jing  

The scale of OpenAI’s new round of financing has become a key variable determining the trading logic of the AI sector. Latest rumors suggest the funding could reach as high as $170 billion, but NVIDIA has clarified that its investment will be lower than expected, directly impacting the fulfillment of Oracle’s $300 billion contract as a supplier. To fill the gap, OpenAI is seeking support from tech giants: SoftBank is negotiating an additional investment of up to $30 billion, and Amazon is also in talks to participate in this round of financing.  

Whether OpenAI can successfully complete this new round of massive financing is not only a matter of its own survival but also a key variable shaping the trading logic of the entire AI sector.  

While market rumors indicate the next round of financing could range from $150 billion to $170 billion, if confirmed, this would ensure OpenAI’s cash flow until 2030 and is expected to drive a sharp rise in the entire AI sector. However, uncertainties in reality are mounting.  

As previously reported by Wall Street Insights, Jensen Huang clearly clarified on January 31 that although the chip giant "will definitely participate" in OpenAI’s latest financing round, the amount will be far less than外界 speculated.  

On February 2, according to The Wall Street Journal, this funding gap has triggered a chain reaction, directly impacting Oracle, which provides computing power to OpenAI. Oracle previously recorded a $300 billion contract with OpenAI as remaining performance obligations (RPO), supporting the earlier surge in its stock price.  

Analysts point out that with adjustments in the investment willingness of core investors, doubts have arisen about OpenAI’s ability to pay this astronomical sum and the prudence of Oracle’s accounting treatment in fully recording it on the books.  

Reports indicate that Oracle is currently facing a dilemma: on one hand, it needs to raise funds through stock issuance to defend its investment-grade credit rating; on the other hand, it must address shareholder concerns about dilution after its stock price halved from the September 2025 high.  

## Significant Uncertainty Surrounding Financing Scale  

The final scale of OpenAI’s current financing round is the "make-or-break factor" determining capital flows in the AI industry chain.  

On February 2, the latest market rumors circulating on social platform X claimed that OpenAI’s next round of financing could reach $150 billion to $170 billion. This optimistic expectation is seen as the fuel for the continued surge of the entire "AI complex."  

However, the actual progress on the financing front is full of variables. According to a Wall Street Journal report last Friday, due to internal doubts at NVIDIA, the letter of intent disclosed by the two parties in September—under which NVIDIA would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI over multiple years—has stalled.  

When asked if the investment would exceed $100 billion, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang clearly stated on January 31: "No, no, not at all." Although he confirmed NVIDIA will definitely participate in OpenAI’s latest financing round, a reduction in the investment scale is a foregone conclusion.  

To fill the funding gap, OpenAI is seeking support from other giants. After investing $22.5 billion in OpenAI in December 2025 and increasing its stake to 11%, SoftBank is negotiating an additional investment of up to $30 billion.  

In addition, Amazon is also in contact with OpenAI to participate in this round of financing. Given that OpenAI is estimated to have commitments totaling up to $1.4 trillion, its ability to successfully raise massive funds from these investors will directly determine its performance capabilities.  

## Oracle’s $300 Billion Gamble  

The relationship between OpenAI and NVIDIA has long been seen as a microcosm of the "circularity" of AI transactions: NVIDIA invests in OpenAI, OpenAI uses the funds to purchase computing power from Oracle, and Oracle then uses this revenue to buy NVIDIA chips.  

Uncertainties surrounding OpenAI’s financing have exposed its core supplier Oracle to significant risks. As of November 30, Oracle reported remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $523 billion, approximately nine times its revenue over the past four quarters.  

Notably, this includes a $300 billion contract related to OpenAI. It was precisely because the financial report showed that RPO had more than quadrupled from the previous quarter that Oracle’s stock price soared by 36% in a single day in early September 2025.  

Oracle spokesperson Deborah Hellinger stated:  

"The NVIDIA-OpenAI transaction has zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI. We have full confidence in OpenAI’s ability to raise funds and fulfill its commitments."  

However, under accounting standards, the $300 billion can only be recorded as RPO if management judges that collection is "probable." If OpenAI fails to make full payment or needs other customers to fill the gap, the credibility of the book data will be greatly compromised.  

This also poses an urgent question for Oracle’s management: in the upcoming financial report, will they still determine that collecting $300 billion from OpenAI is "probable"? This judgment will directly affect market confidence.  

## The Battle to Defend Oracle’s Balance Sheet  

Amid concerns about OpenAI’s performance capabilities and its own debt levels, Oracle is taking action to safeguard its financial credibility.  

On February 1, Oracle announced plans to issue up to $20 billion in common stock this year, part of a broader plan to raise $45 billion to $50 billion through equity and debt financing to expand its cloud infrastructure business.  

Reports indicate that while this move will dilute shareholder equity—and comes after the stock price has fallen by about half from its September 2025 high—increasing equity buffer is considered a prudent measure amid uncertainties in AI transactions. Oracle is currently taking on debt to build data centers, and these investments are largely dependent on the contract signed with OpenAI.  

Market concerns have already emerged in the bond market. Oracle’s current credit rating is BBB, which has been placed on negative watch by S&P and Moody’s, facing the risk of downgrade. Some of Oracle’s debt (including the 10-year notes issued in September) has recently traded near junk bond levels, and the cost of protecting against its debt default has surged.  

### Risk Notice and Disclaimer  

The market is risky, and investment requires prudence. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this article shall be at the investor’s own risk.  

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### Translation Notes:  

1. **Core Terminology**:  

  - 剩余履约义务 (RPO)：Retained Performance Obligations (RPO) (accounting term, retained official abbreviation)  

  - 融资规模：financing scale / funding amount  

  - 算力：computing power  

  - 信用评级：credit rating  

  - 垃圾债：junk bond  

  - 债务违约保护成本：cost of debt default protection  

2. **Proper Nouns**:  

  - 企业/机构：OpenAI, NVIDIA, Oracle, SoftBank, Amazon (retained original names); 标普 (S&P), 穆迪 (Moody’s) (standard abbreviations)  

  - 职位：CEO (Jensen Huang), 发言人 (spokesperson)  

  - 社交平台：X (retained official name)  

3. **Market & Financial Expressions**:  

  - 交易逻辑：trading logic  

  - 资金链：cash flow  

  - 连锁反应：chain reaction  

  - 股东稀释：shareholder dilution  

  - 会计处理：accounting treatment  

  - 资产负债表：balance sheet  

  - 负面观察名单：negative watch list  

4. **Sentence Structure**:  

  - Split long Chinese sentences into concise English clauses (e.g., "OpenAI能否顺利完成新一轮巨额融资，已不仅是其自身的生存问题，更成为了决定整个AI板块交易逻辑的关键变量" → "Whether OpenAI can successfully complete this new round of massive financing is not only a matter of its own survival but also a key variable shaping the trading logic of the entire AI sector").  

  - Preserve logical relationships (cause-effect, contrast, emphasis) using conjunctions (however, while, because, if) and transitional phrases (as a result, in addition, notably).  

5. **Tone & Formality**:  

  - Maintain a formal, objective tone consistent with financial news reports.  

  - Direct quotes are retained in italicized form (e.g., Jensen Huang’s statement: "No, no, not at all").  

6. **Cultural & Contextual Adaptation**:  

  - "胜负手" (make-or-break factor)：conveyed the core meaning of "a decisive factor that determines success or failure" in a financial context.  

  - "豪赌" (gamble)：used to reflect the high-risk nature of Oracle’s $300 billion contract commitment.  

  - "极可能 (probable)"：retained the accounting term "probable" (a specific threshold under U.S. GAAP/IFRS).