For the third consecutive week, capital inflows have surged into commodities, with high concentration in precious metals and agricultural products.

# By Long Yue

The latest report from JPMorgan Chase shows that capital has seen a substantial inflow into the global commodities market for the third consecutive week. As of January 23, the total notional value of open interest climbed to approximately $1.83 trillion, a record high. Capital flows were highly concentrated in the precious metals and agricultural commodities sectors, with net inflows of $21.5 billion and $8.9 billion respectively, among which gold emerged as the primary source of incremental capital. In addition, extreme cold weather has sent U.S. natural gas prices surging by 70%.

Global capital continues to pile into the commodities market, with flows rapidly converging on specific sectors.

According to the Zongfeng Trading Desk, JPMorgan Chase's Global Commodities Research Report released on January 27 indicated that driven by three straight weeks of large-scale capital inflows and rising prices of precious metals and natural gas, the total notional value of open interest in the global commodities market has surged to an all-time high.

In the week ending January 23, 2026, the notional value of open interest in the global commodities market rose by nearly 6% week-on-week (an increase of about $101 billion) to hit $1.83 trillion.

The report pointed out that the current expansion in scale is driven by a combination of sustained net capital inflows and rising prices, with precious metals and agricultural commodities being the main sectors attracting capital.

## Capital Sees Third Consecutive Week of Net Inflows; Precious Metals and Agricultural Commodities Lead in Capital Attraction

The precious metals sector was the undisputed top destination for capital inflows during the week.

The net inflow of capital into the global commodity futures market, measured by contract value, stood at approximately $36 billion, with a high degree of concentration across various asset classes. Among them, the precious metals sector recorded a net contract inflow of $21.5 billion, and gold alone drew a net contract inflow of about $15.8 billion, significantly higher than silver, platinum and palladium.

On the price front, the report showed that gold prices rose by around 8% and silver prices by about 14% during the week, forming a positive resonance between prices and capital flows.

As a result, in the week ending January 23, the notional value of open interest in the precious metals market surged by 16% week-on-week (an increase of about $59 billion) to $433 billion, making it the single largest contributing sector for the week.

JPMorgan Chase's Commodities Strategy Team noted that investors' positions in precious metals are now close to a phased high, but the structural logic for gold remains relatively clear, and they continue to favor gold over silver.

Silver remains vulnerable to the risk of sudden and disruptive pullbacks. While such volatility may have a certain contagion effect on gold prices, this will mainly be repriced through a rebound in the gold-silver ratio, which in turn presents buying opportunities for gold as it continues to have a clearer and more bullish structural narrative.

## Energy and Agricultural Commodities: Weather Drives Natural Gas Prices; Capital Flows into All Agricultural Commodity Subsectors

In the energy market, the notional value of open interest rose by 4.8% week-on-week (an increase of $32 billion) to $700 billion.

Among them, the crude oil and refined products market saw a net contract inflow of about $8 billion. Against the backdrop of a phased easing of geopolitical risks, short-term supply disruptions continue to provide support for prices.

In contrast, the natural gas market witnessed a **price-driven expansion**. The report pointed out that despite a net contract outflow of about $2.5 billion in the natural gas market during the week, sustained cold snaps in North America and Europe sent the U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price surging by approximately 70% in a single week, driving a notable rise in the notional value of open interest.

The research report indicated that Europe's natural gas inventories are at a historically low level for this time of the year, and the rebound in heating demand is an important backdrop for the sharp price increase.

The agricultural commodities sector also gained favor among investors. Data showed that the notional value of open interest in the global agricultural commodities market rose by 2.4% week-on-week to approximately $337 billion. This growth was driven by a net contract inflow of $8.9 billion across the entire sector, with price gains in the grain, oilseed and livestock markets offsetting price declines in the soft commodities market.

## Base Metals: Rising Copper Inventories Weigh on Fundamentals

The notional value of open interest in the base metals market rose by 2% week-on-week to $258.4 billion.

However, in terms of capital flows, the sector as a whole saw a net outflow (of $400 million). Although copper and lead recorded capital inflows of $2 billion, this was offset by outflows of $2.4 billion from other varieties within the sector.

JPMorgan Chase analysts expressed caution over elevated copper prices, noting that fundamentals are becoming more challenging. The report mentioned: "Inventory builds have been above normal levels ahead of China's Lunar New Year (February 17), and COMEX/LME arbitrage at the front end of the curve has reversed."

## Investor Positions Stabilize Overall with Notable Structural Adjustments

In terms of investors' net positions, as of January 20, the net long position size of investors in the global commodity futures market stood at approximately $195 billion, remaining basically flat week-on-week overall.

Structurally:

- Net long positions in precious metals held steady at a high of about $130.6 billion;

- The energy sector remained in a net short position, but the short position size narrowed to approximately $9.6 billion, mainly driven by improved positions in European natural gas;

- Net long positions in both base metals and agricultural commodities edged slightly lower.

The research report also warned that short-term momentum indicators for some varieties have moved close to the **overbought** zone, indicating that buying momentum may see a phased slowdown.

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