Morning News

(Source: Wall Street CN)

## Market Overview

Ahead of the Fed's crucial interest rate meeting, the three major U.S. stock indexes pulled back, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending their four-day winning streaks; Tesla fell over 3%, but the semiconductor index rose for two consecutive sessions, as Nvidia rebounded nearly 2% driven by H200-related news. Paramount, which is competing with Netflix to acquire Warner Bros., closed up 9%, Warner Bros. gained over 4%, while Netflix dropped more than 3%. Confluent, set to be acquired by IBM, surged 29%.

U.S. and European government bond prices declined across the board. Hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials prompted markets to bet on interest rate hikes next year, with the 10-year German bund yield hitting a nearly nine-month high; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a more than two-month high. The U.S. Dollar Index reclaimed the 99.00 level intraday but failed to extend its move toward a more than one-month low; Bitcoin climbed back above $92,000 before reversing to a nearly 3% drop.

Most commodities fell: Crude oil declined over 2% intraday, ending a three-day rally and pulling back from a two-week high; gold turned lower during the session, with COMEX gold futures closing at a monthly low; silver retreated from an intraday record high, with COMEX silver futures falling over 2% at one point; however, LME copper hit a new all-time high.

During the Asian session, A-shares opened higher and extended gains, with the ChiNext Index surging over 2% amid a rally in computing hardware and securities stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.2%, 30-year Chinese government bond futures rose, Vanke bonds advanced, while coking coal and coke prices plummeted.

## Key News

- **Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee Meeting**: For next year's economic work, we will adhere to the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "improving quality and efficiency", leverage the synergistic effects of existing and incremental policies, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, adopt more vigorous macro policies, sustainably expand domestic demand, optimize supply, improve the quality of incremental growth, and revitalize stock assets.

- **China's November Foreign Trade Growth Rebounds Sharply**: In U.S. dollar terms, exports turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, while imports rose 1.9% year-on-year. Rare earth exports increased 26.5% month-on-month; refined oil imports saw "volume growth but price decline", copper ore imports achieved "both volume and price increases", and soybean imports fell 14.5% month-on-month.

- **U.S. Supreme Court Hints at Backing Trump's FTC Commissioner Dismissal**: A 90-year precedent may be overturned, but one conservative justice expressed "concerns" about undermining the Federal Reserve's independence.

- **Trump Teases Potential Overturn of "Reciprocal Tariffs" with a "Plan B"**: U.S. companies are scrambling for "tax refunds".

- **Trump to Issue Executive Order on AI**: He announced plans to release a single-rule executive order on artificial intelligence this week, restricting states from making independent decisions.

- **Trump Claims U.S. Inflation "Largely Solved"**: He stated that inflation will decline slightly further but denied the possibility of deflation. "Shadow Fed Chair" Kevin Hassett argued that publishing a six-month interest rate path would be irresponsible, and Jerome Powell may also view interest rate cuts as prudent.

- **Google Partners with Chinese AR Firm Xreal for "Project Aura" Glasses**.

- **Riding Trump's Robot Push**: SoftBank and Nvidia are reportedly in talks to participate in Skild AI's new funding round, valuing the company at approximately $14 billion.

- **Apple Chip Chief Denies Departure Rumors**: Johny Srouji stated he has no plans to leave anytime soon.

- **Paramount Surges on Warner Bros. Acquisition Bid**: Following Trump's criticism of Netflix, Paramount made a bid for Warner Bros., with its CEO announcing a $17.6 billion cash return to shareholders. Paramount's stock soared 9%, and Warner Bros. gained over 4%.

- **Pop Mart Plummets 9% Intraday**: Suspected underperformance of U.S. "Black Friday" sales pushed short interest to a two-year high.

- **Muxi Semiconductor Lottery Results Announced**: The winning rate was 0.033%, making it more sought-after than "China's first domestic GPU stock" Moore Threads.

## Market Closing Quotes

### U.S. & European Stocks

- S&P 500: -0.35% to 6,846.52

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.45% to 47,739.32

- Nasdaq Composite: -0.14% to 23,545.904

- Europe STOXX 600 Index: -0.07% to 578.36

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: +0.54% to 3,924.08

- Shenzhen Component Index: +1.39% to 13,329.99

- ChiNext Index: +2.60% to 3,190.27

### Bond Market

- U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: ~4.16% (+2+ basis points intraday)

- U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield: ~3.58% (+2 basis points intraday)

### Commodities

- WTI Crude Oil (Jan): -2.0% to $58.88/barrel

- Brent Crude Oil (Feb): -2.0% to $62.49/barrel

- COMEX Gold (Feb): -0.6% to $4,217.7/ounce

- COMEX Silver (Mar): -1.1% to $58.405/ounce

- LME Copper: +0.1% to $11,636/ton

# Detailed Key News

## Global Highlights

### CPC Central Political Bureau Meets to Discuss 2026 Economic Work

The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee convened a meeting to analyze and deliberate on economic work for 2026. According to Xinhua News Agency, the meeting emphasized that next year's economic work will adhere to the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "improving quality and efficiency". It will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, leverage the synergistic effects of existing and incremental policies, strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cycle adjustments, and effectively enhance the efficiency of macroeconomic governance. The meeting stressed adhering to domestic demand-driven growth to build a strong domestic market, and persisting in innovation-driven development to accelerate the cultivation and expansion of new growth drivers.

The meeting highlighted the implementation of more vigorous and effective macro policies, enhancing policy foresight, pertinence, and coordination. It called for sustained efforts to expand domestic demand, optimize supply, improve the quality of incremental growth, revitalize stock assets, develop new quality productive forces in light of local conditions, advance the construction of a unified national market in depth, and continuously prevent and defuse risks in key areas. Efforts will be made to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy, maintain social harmony and stability, and achieve a sound start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.

The CPC Central Committee held a forum with non-Party personages to solicit opinions and suggestions on economic work, which was presided over by General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee who delivered an important speech.

### Institutional Analysis on the Political Bureau Meeting

- The Taichuan team from Guolian Minsheng Macro believes the meeting sent a clear signal: policy has shifted from "promoting stability through progress" to "improving quality and efficiency", emphasizing the dual adjustment of "counter-cyclical + cross-cycle". Fiscal and monetary policies will work in coordination, shifting from "investing in tangible assets" to "investing in people" to enhance fiscal sustainability. Equal emphasis will be placed on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with the cultivation of new growth drivers upgraded from "accelerating" to "urgently promoting" to respond to international trade frictions. In terms of people's livelihood security, efforts will focus on resolving wage arrears and safeguarding the lives of vulnerable groups, laying a solid foundation for the start of the "15th Five-Year Plan".

- Shenwan Hongyuan notes that the meeting explicitly proposed "enhancing policy foresight, pertinence, and coordination" and "leveraging the synergistic effects of existing and incremental policies", which may mean subsequent policies will pay more attention to the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies, aggregate and structural policies, and the revitalization of stock assets and optimization of incremental growth, echoing the tone of "effectively enhancing the efficiency of macroeconomic governance". Domestic demand will remain the core of policy, as indicated by the explicit call to "adhere to domestic demand-driven growth", and policies supporting consumption and investment may be rolled out at an accelerated pace. "Prioritizing people's livelihood" remains a key focus, and policies related to stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations are expected.

### China's November Foreign Trade Growth Rebounds Sharply

In U.S. dollar terms, China's exports in November turned positive with a year-on-year surge of 5.9%, reversing the year-on-year decline in the previous month. Rare earth exports increased by 26.5% month-on-month; refined oil imports saw "volume growth but price decline", copper ore imports achieved "both volume and price increases", while soybean imports fell by 14.5% month-on-month.

For the first 11 months, China's imports and exports to Belt and Road Initiative partner countries rose by 6%, while those to the United States dropped by 16.9% year-on-year. During the same period, mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 60% of China's total exports, with integrated circuits and automobile exports registering significant growth. The trade surplus reached $1.076 trillion in the first 11 months, exceeding $1 trillion for the first time this year.

- November soybean imports stood at 8.107 million metric tons, up 13.3% year-on-year.

- Imports of refined oil, natural gas, and coal were 4.241 million tons, 11.947 million tons, and 44.053 million tons respectively, increasing by 4.1%, 10.7%, and 19.9% year-on-year.

- Imports of integrated circuits reached 273.85 billion yuan in value, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, while import volume rose slightly by 2.14% to 46.83 billion units.

Exports to Africa in November soared by 27.6% year-on-year, contributing nearly 1.5 percentage points to overall export growth and temporarily surpassing other economies such as ASEAN. Guolian Minsheng pointed out that driven by infrastructure demand, mechanical and electrical products account for an absolute proportion of Africa's imports from China, while labor-intensive products play an increasingly limited role in driving overall exports. Africa's significant economic growth potential and industrialization space provide a solid foundation for China to explore the African market.

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that export growth was mainly driven by a low base effect, and the two-year compound growth rate remains steady after excluding the base effect. Mechanical and electrical products, especially integrated circuits, showed strong export performance, but exports to the United States fell by 28.6% (a larger decline), while exports to non-U.S. regions maintained steady growth. On the import side, the two-year compound growth rate turned negative to -1.1% after excluding the base effect, indicating domestic demand still needs stronger policy support. The gap between domestic and external demand has further widened, and exports are expected to decline year-on-year in December.

### U.S. Supreme Court May Overturn 90-Year Precedent, Fed Independence at Stake

Will a 90-year precedent be overturned, and is the Federal Reserve's independence at risk? The U.S. Supreme Court has signaled support for Trump's dismissal of Federal Trade Commission (FTC) commissioners from independent government agencies. Six conservative justices questioned the 1935 Humphrey's Executor v. United States precedent, which has protected the independence of federal government agencies for 90 years, stating their primary concern is that Congress has created agencies exercising executive power without being accountable to the president. The three liberal justices issued a strong warning against overturning the long-standing job protection mechanism. However, Justice Kavanaugh, a conservative, expressed "concerns" about undermining the Federal Reserve's independence .

### Trump Hints at "Plan B" for Tariffs, U.S. Companies Scramble for Refunds

Did Trump hint that the Supreme Court will strike down "reciprocal tariffs"? U.S. companies are scrambling for "tax refunds". In a social media post, Trump suggested he might lose the tariff case but has a "Plan B", with his administration preparing to use other laws to maintain tariffs. Meanwhile, a large number of U.S. companies, including Costco, have filed lawsuits to claim potential refunds exceeding $100 billion, ensuring their rights before the tariff "liquidation" deadline. Analysts believe that even if the tariffs are ruled illegal, the Supreme Court may not order refunds. U.S. officials have stated that refunds "will not happen".

### Trump to Issue AI Executive Order, Restricting State-Level Decision-Making

U.S. President Trump announced he will issue a single-rule executive order on artificial intelligence this week, restricting states from making independent decisions. The order aims to establish unified rules to limit states' ability to formulate their own AI regulatory policies. Trump emphasized on social media, "If we are to maintain our leading position in AI, we must have only one rulebook." He clearly stated that enterprises should not be forced to obtain separate approvals from 50 states for each business operation, implying the current state-level regulatory system has imposed an excessive burden on enterprises.

### Trump Claims U.S. Inflation "Largely Solved"

Trump stated that the U.S. inflation problem has been "largely solved", predicting a slight further decline in inflation but denying the possibility of deflation. He once again criticized the previous Biden administration, asserting his team "inherited" the high inflation situation left by Biden.

### "Shadow Fed Chair" Hassett on Interest Rates

Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council (dubbed the "Shadow Fed Chair"), stated that it would be "irresponsible" for the Federal Reserve to announce a specific six-month interest rate path in advance, emphasizing decisions must be based on economic data. He praised Chairman Powell for effectively coordinating opinions within the committee and successfully forging a consensus on this week's interest rate cut. Hassett noted that AI investment is expected to bring a "positive supply shock" similar to the computer technology boom in the 1990s; if inflation falls while the economy maintains positive growth, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will have significant room to decline .

### Google Partners with Chinese AR Firm Xreal for "Project Aura" Glasses

Google will collaborate with Chinese AR company Xreal to develop standalone glasses codenamed "Project Aura". Running on a unified Android XR system, the glasses can work without a smartphone but require an external battery.

### SoftBank and Nvidia in Talks to Invest in Skild AI

Riding the wave of Trump's full-scale push for robotics? SoftBank and Nvidia are reportedly in discussions to participate in Skild AI's new financing round, which may value the company at $14 billion. If the new round of financing exceeding $1 billion is successful, Skild AI's valuation will be nearly three times higher than that in its Series B financing this year, which was led by SoftBank and participated in by Nvidia. Reports last week indicated that the U.S. Secretary of Commerce has recently held frequent meetings with robotics industry CEOs to fully support the industry's accelerated development, and the Trump administration is considering issuing an executive order on robotics next year.

### Apple Chip Chief Denies Departure Rumors

Johny Srouji, head of Apple's chip business, stated on Monday that he will continue to serve at Apple for the time being, quashing recent rumors. Previously, the market feared his departure might exacerbate instability in Apple's senior management.

### Paramount Bids for Warner Bros. After Trump's Netflix Criticism

One day after Trump raised antitrust concerns about Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros., Paramount CEO Bob Bakish bypassed Warner's board and made a $30-per-share all-cash offer directly to shareholders, representing a 139% premium to Warner's stock price. This offer is higher than Netflix's $27.75-per-share cash-and-stock bid, with Bakish hinting to Warner's CEO that he is willing to offer more. A key difference between the two bids is that Paramount seeks to acquire all of Warner's assets, while Netflix is only interested in the film studio and streaming business. Warner Bros. rose nearly 8% intraday on Monday and closed up over 4%, while Paramount closed 9% higher.

### Pop Mart Plummets 9% Intraday Amid Disappointing Black Friday Sales

Pop Mart's Hong Kong-listed shares plummeted 9% intraday, marking the largest drop in over a month, as short-selling pressure continued to build amid stock price pressure. According to S&P Global data, as of last Thursday, short interest in Pop Mart had risen to 6.3% of tradable shares, the highest level since August 2023. Analysts expect Pop Mart's U.S. sales growth to slow to below 500% this quarter, down from the previous forecast of 1200%.

### Muxi Semiconductor's IPO Winning Rate Hits 0.033%

Muxi Semiconductor announced its IPO lottery results, with a winning rate of 0.033%—more sought-after than Moore Threads, "China's first domestic GPU stock". The IPO attracted 5.17 million subscribers, with strategic placement including major players in the AI industry chain, reflecting strong market bets on domestic computing power. The company raised over 3.9 billion yuan to deploy full-stack GPU R&D. Despite rapid revenue expansion, it has accumulated losses exceeding 3.2 billion yuan and is expected to achieve break-even as early as 2026.

### Dalio Warns of "Perilous" Global Economy in Next Two Years

Ray Dalio believes the global economy will face dangers in the next one to two years due to the overlap of three major cycles: debt, political conflicts, and geopolitics. Although the AI industry has shown signs of a bubble, he argues that attention should be paid to the catalysts for a bubble burst—monetary tightening or forced asset sales to meet debt obligations. He advises against rushing to exit AI investments despite high valuations.

### Wall Street Veteran Yardeni Ends 15-Year Tech Stock Overweight

Ed Yardeni, a senior Wall Street strategist, has ended his 15-year practice of overweighting tech stocks and downgraded "Mag 7" for the first time. He recommends significant reductions in holdings of the Magnificent Seven, as increased competition will erode the giants' profit margins, with earnings growth shifting to sectors such as finance, industrials, and healthcare. Yardeni also downgraded the U.S. overweight rating in global indexes, believing other markets offer more attractive valuations and stronger performance.

## Domestic Macroeconomy

### What Does "Appropriate Deregulation" Mean for Securities Firms?

Following the CSRC Chairman's statement on "appropriate deregulation", institutional analysis suggests the securities industry is expected to enter a "policy easing period" centered on supporting high-quality firms and restricting underperforming ones after reshaping through strict regulation. Currently, the average leverage ratio of listed securities firms is only 3.3 times, far lower than the 12-14 times of international investment banks. An increase in the leverage ceiling will directly expand business space, help leading securities firms break through in ROE, and constitute a significant positive for high-quality leading securities firms.

## Domestic Companies/Industries

### China's November Passenger Car Sales Decline 8.5% Year-on-Year

China's passenger car sales fell for the second consecutive month in November, dropping 8.5% year-on-year to 2.24 million units, mainly due to a 22% decline in fuel vehicle sales and the phasing out of subsidy policies. Although new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for a record 58.9% of total sales, their growth rate of only 4.2% was insufficient to offset the overall decline. Exports emerged as a bright spot, growing by 52.4% in November. Institutions predict NEV exports will increase by 40% to 2.83 million units next year.

### Why Did Coking Coal and Coke Prices Plummet?

Coking coal and coke futures tumbled under the dual pressure of weak spot market and surging imports. The main coking coal contract fell below 1,100 yuan/ton, dropping over 17% within the month. Weak daily coal consumption at power plants and inventory accumulation due to the warm winter weighed on demand, while high supply and soaring imports exacerbated the imbalance. Despite short-term pressure, institutions believe winter demand and long-term contract mechanisms will provide support, limiting the decline in coal prices.

### AI Enters "Liquid Cooling Era", Domestic Supply Chain Accelerates Entry

Institutional views indicate that AI has spawned a 220 billion yuan liquid cooling super cycle, and the market has generally underestimated the speed and scale of this transformation. Technically, cold plates and microchannel lids (MCL) will dominate the market; structurally, Nvidia's supply chain strategy of "decentralization" is opening a historic window for domestic manufacturers to enter the global core supply chain. It is estimated that by 2026, the demand for liquid cooling systems on Nvidia's platform alone will reach 69.7 billion yuan, with ASIC demand at 35.3 billion yuan. The domestic supply chain is accelerating to seize this 100-billion-yuan market opportunity.

# Overseas Macroeconomics

Yellen "Spoils" the Outcome: U.S. Real GDP Growth to Reach 3% This Year. Despite the government shutdown, the U.S. will end this year with a 3% real GDP growth rate, Treasury Secretary Yellen stated. The holiday shopping season has performed "very strongly," with economic conditions better than expected. She predicted inflation will "drop significantly" next year and noted that the bond market has "just experienced its best year since 2020."

Rare 30-Year Divide in U.S. Bond Market: Long-Term Yields Rise Instead of Falling on Eve of Fed Rate Cut. The phenomenon of U.S. long-term Treasury yields rising instead of falling has sparked intense debate on Wall Street. Optimists view it as a signal of an economic soft landing, neutral observers see it as interest rates returning to normal, while pessimists worry about inflation risks, massive government debt, and impaired Fed independence, believing "bond vigilantes" are making a comeback. Some opinions further point out that the global structural shift from "savings glut" to "bond supply glut" is weakening the Federal Reserve's control over long-term interest rates.

Wall Street's Most Optimistic Forecast Emerges! Oppenheimer: S&P 500 to Surge to 8,100 Points Next Year. Bullish sentiment on Wall Street is heating up. Oppenheimer predicts the S&P 500 will rise to 8,100 points in 2026, an additional 18% from current levels, marking the most aggressive forecast. Its logic is based on U.S. economic resilience and expected 12% growth in corporate profits next year. However, JPMorgan warns that rate cut expectations are already fully priced in, and short-term profit-taking pressure from "buy the rumor, sell the fact" may emerge. Despite increased short-term volatility, institutions generally remain optimistic about risk assets in 2026, with global capital accelerating positions for the medium-term upward trend of U.S. stocks.

Where Lies Market Division? Morgan Stanley Responds to Client Doubts About Its "2026 Outlook." Morgan Stanley reaffirmed that AI financing demand remains strong, and AI-driven investment will promote credit market expansion. It expects total investment-grade bond issuance to soar to $2.25 trillion, while credit spreads will only widen moderately. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley insists the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three more times in this cycle, and the European Central Bank will make two additional rate cuts in 2026.

JPMorgan's 2026 Vision: Economic Divergence, Policy Divergence, and Soaring AI Adoption. JPMorgan predicts 2026 will be dominated by the AI super cycle, unbalanced monetary policies, and economic structural divergence, supporting the upward trend of global stock markets and bullish on the S&P 500 to 7,500 points. AI will drive capital expenditure expansion, while consumption will show a "K-shaped" pattern. The bank is bearish on oil, extremely bullish on gold with a target price of $5,000, expects a weak U.S. dollar and a depreciating Japanese yen, and warns of downside risks such as macroeconomic slowdown and policy shifts.

BofA's Hartnett: Going Long on Commodities Is Next Year's Best "Run-It-Hot Trade," All Commodities Will "Be Like Gold"! Hartnett predicts that going long on commodities will be the best "run-it-hot trade" in 2026. Under the new paradigm of "fiscal populism + deglobalization," long-neglected oil and energy have become the best contrarian sectors. In contrast, the bond market faces pressure due to historical patterns. Data shows that yields will inevitably rise three months after the Fed Chair nomination, with an average increase of 49-65 basis points.

Japan's Q3 GDP Shrinks by 2.3% More Than Expected, 10-Year JGB Yields Fall Temporarily. Japan's third-quarter GDP contracted by an annualized rate of 2.3%, a further decline from the initial estimate of 1.8%. The weakness in Q3 was mainly due to a temporary drop in residential investment caused by regulatory changes, which further justifies Japan's economic stimulus package.

$100 Million Sold Per Minute: India's Rupee Defense Battle. Facing the rupee's nearly 5% depreciation against the U.S. dollar to a historic low this year, the Reserve Bank of India has adopted a highly confidential intervention strategy. Traders receive orders in soundproof rooms, sometimes selling $100 million per minute. Continuous interventions have significantly depleted foreign exchange reserves: foreign currency assets in reserves have decreased by approximately $38 billion since the June high. The new governor has shifted to a more flexible "crawling peg" management, seeking a balance between curbing speculation and avoiding reserve exhaustion. This week's U.S.-India trade negotiations may become a key variable.

# Overseas Companies

OpenAI: Global Paid Enterprise AI Users Surge 143%, AI Tools Save Employees 40-60 Minutes Daily. OpenAI's report shows that enterprise-level AI has shifted from a trial tool to a core infrastructure. Enterprise API inference token consumption has soared 320 times year-on-year, with the fastest growth in applications in technology, healthcare, and manufacturing. Brad Lightcap, COO of OpenAI, stated that OpenAI currently has over 1 million paid enterprise users for its enterprise-level AI products. The report indicates that the number of paid seats (i.e., employee users) for ChatGPT's workplace products has reached 7 million.

Layoffs Amid Big Acquisitions: IBM Makes Another Move in AI Transformation, Plans to Acquire Confluent for $11 Billion. IBM announced on Monday its plan to acquire data streaming company Confluent for $11 billion, with the transaction expected to close in mid-2026, potentially setting a record for the largest merger and acquisition in recent years. While replacing HR positions with AI, the former "Big Blue" is aggressively acquiring core real-time data processing technologies, making a big bet on AI transformation.

Goldman Sachs' Calculation on AI Downstream Status: U.S. Enterprise AI Adoption Rate Surges. The AI adoption rate among U.S. enterprises has reached 17.4%, with large enterprises showing particularly strong willingness to adopt AI—40% of large enterprises are expected to use AI technology within six months. Early survey results indicate that many adopters have achieved positive return on investment. By industry distribution, information technology, professional services, education, finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, healthcare, and entertainment industries are leading in AI adoption.

UBS Refutes AI Bubble Theory: Data Centers Show No Signs of Cooling, Raises Next Year's Market Growth Forecast to 20-25%. UBS believes the global data center equipment market shows no signs of cooling, with current under-construction capacity reaching 25GW. Based on extremely low vacancy rates and high capital expenditures by hyperscale vendors, UBS raised its 2026 market growth forecast to 20-25% and predicts liquid cooling technology will lead with a 45% growth rate. The structural change in AI data center construction costs means high-intensity investment will continue at least until 2027, and AI monetization has begun to show initial results.

On Eve of Buffett's Retirement, Berkshire Portfolio Manager Todd Joins JPMorgan to Lead $10 Billion Strategic Investment Group. Todd Combs, a portfolio manager at Berkshire Hathaway and considered a core member of Buffett's succession team, will resign to join JPMorgan as head of a newly established strategic investment group, overseeing $10 billion to bet on national defense and key technologies. The move comes amid a comprehensive leadership transition at Berkshire, with Buffett announcing multiple key executive adjustments to pave the way for the post-95 era.

"Cathie Wood's" ARK Publicly Releases SpaceX "Valuation Model": $2.5 Trillion by 2030! Recently, SpaceX's valuation has been pushed up to $800 billion due to market optimism, while ARK's model gives a longer-term forecast: its valuation may reach $2.5 trillion by 2030. The core logic lies in the "flywheel effect"—Starlink's cash flow drives Starship iteration to support the Mars program, but this goal is highly dependent on the realization of key technologies such as rapid Starship reusability.

# Industries/Concepts

1. Humanoid Robots: Midea Group officially unveiled its six-arm wheeled humanoid robot "MIROU," the third-generation product in Midea's humanoid robot family. Research institutions believe that catalysts such as Tesla Optimus' running video and growing attention to new processes indicate that the finalization and mass production of the Optimus Gen 3 robot are accelerating, with more rational and consistent expectations. The U.S. has shifted to supporting robot technology, and China's industrial support and subsidy policies are also expected to be introduced. Looking ahead to 2026, the mass production of humanoid robots is imminent with frequent subsequent catalysts, presenting obvious market opportunities in components such as lead screws and body manufacturing.

2. Shipbuilding: According to CCTV, on December 8, China State Shipbuilding Corporation and China COSCO Shipping Group completed the cooperation signing of a new shipbuilding project in Shanghai, with an amount exceeding 50 billion yuan. This is the largest single domestic cooperation order signed by Chinese shipyards in terms of value. In the first week of December, global shipyards received 62+9 new ship orders, with Chinese shipyards securing 59+9 and South Korean shipyards 3. The weekly transaction volume hit a new high this year. Institutions are optimistic about the demand in the shipbuilding industry next year; the logic of the shipbuilding sector in 2026 is similar to that of construction machinery in 2019, and the current inflection point of marginal recovery has arrived.

3. Aluminum-Metal Batteries: According to Xinhua News Agency, a research team from Tianjin University has successfully developed a low-corrosion "organic dichloride" electrolyte. Replacing traditional ionic liquids with an aluminum chloride/n-propyl ether organic system, it "confines" corrosive chloride ions around aluminum ions through precise regulation of the solvation structure, significantly reducing corrosion while improving electrochemical reversibility, providing a feasible solution for the large-scale application of aluminum-metal batteries.

4. Quantum Information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently announced the preparation plan for the Quantum Information Standardization Technical Committee. The committee will coordinate the standardization work of the quantum information industry, be responsible for the formulation and revision of quantum information standards and technical归口, strengthen the linkage between domestic and international standards, improve basic and common technical standards, accelerate the research and formulation of urgently needed industry standards, and promote the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements.

5. AI Glasses: Google will hold a special Android XR launch event at 2:00 AM Beijing time on December 9. It is reported that it will launch the world's first consumer-grade AR glasses "Project Aura" equipped with the Android XR platform + Gemini AI, marking the official entry of the AR industry into a new phase of "AI + Spatial Computing." The market generally believes that this launch event signifies that the AI edge (device-side) + XR industry is entering a period of concentrated explosion, which is expected to drive the penetration of Extended Reality (XR) devices and innovation in application scenarios.

# Today's Key News Preview

- China's new RMB loans, total social financing increment, M0, M1, M2.

- U.S. October JOLTS job openings.

- Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

- OpenAI may "urgently advance" the release of GPT 5.2.

- EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

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# Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific circumstances. Investment made based on this article shall be at the user's own risk.