Morning News

# Market Overview and Key News

Source: Wall Street CN

## Market Overview

Last Friday, senior Federal Reserve officials adopted a dovish stance to soothe the market, triggering a rebound in U.S. stocks. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed up by nearly 0.9% at the very least. However, they all dropped by around 2% over the entire week, with the Nasdaq Composite falling for three consecutive weeks. Google saw a rebound of over 3%, closing at an all-time high and surging more than 8% weekly. After sliding over 4% intraday, Nvidia once turned to positive territory but ended down nearly 1%, with a weekly decline of approximately 6%. Oracle plummeted nearly 6%. Eli Lilly rose over 1% to hit a record high, becoming the first healthcare company with a market value exceeding the $1 trillion mark.

Following the dovish remarks from the third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury bond prices rose sharply, and their yields hit a new low this month. The two-year U.S. Treasury bonds posted their best weekly performance in two months. The U.S. Dollar Index extended its gains to a nearly six-month high. Japan's Finance Minister stated that intervening in the foreign exchange market remained an option. The Japanese yen reversed its four-day losing streak, moving away from its ten-month low, though it still fell more than 1% for the week.

Cryptocurrencies suffered a double-digit plunge throughout the week. Bitcoin dropped over 8% intraday, breaking below the $81,000 mark to a fresh seven-month low. It declined more than 10% on a weekly basis and is on track to record its largest monthly drop in over three years.

As the United States continued to promote plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, crude oil prices fell for three consecutive sessions to a one-month low, sliding over 3% for the week. Gold rebounded after dropping more than 1% intraday, but still logged its first weekly decline this month.

During the Asian trading session, Chinese mainland stocks and Hong Kong stocks underwent a sharp correction. The ChiNext Index plummeted over 3%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.8%. Lithium mining stocks led the declines, while AI application stocks bucked the downward trend. Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down.

## Key News

China has sent a letter to Guterres regarding Takichi's wrong remarks and actions, clarifying its stance to all member states of the United Nations. Wang Yi emphasized that China urges Japan to reflect on its mistakes and correct them at an early date instead of persisting in its wrongdoing.

The third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve adopted a dovish stance, stating that there is still room for interest rate cuts "in the near term." Market expectations for a rate cut in December exceeded 70% intraday.

The Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve noted that the AI boom is not "Dot-com Bubble 2.0," yet risks associated with debt need to be guarded against. Fed Governor Milan commented that the impact of the September non-farm payrolls data was "distinctly dovish." A voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for next year predicted that the Fed would resume expanding its balance sheet soon, adding that a rate cut in December is unlikely and that asset valuations are excessively high.

For the first time in history, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI). The November CPI is scheduled to be released on December 18 without the month-on-month growth rate data.

The preliminary reading of the S&P Global U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November stood at 54.8, the highest in four months. The services PMI accelerated its growth, while the manufacturing PMI saw a slowdown in expansion. The preliminary reading of the Euro Zone's November Services PMI reached 53.1, a 1.5-year high. However, the preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 49.7, unexpectedly falling back below the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction. The manufacturing sectors in both Germany and France witnessed a deterioration.

Bitcoin once fell below $81,000 on Friday, which may mark its largest monthly drop since 2022. The total market value of cryptocurrencies slid below $3 trillion.

Trump issued an ultimatum, stating that the 27th is the deadline for Ukraine to accept the U.S.-proposed 28-point peace plan. Ukraine's leadership showed "no gratitude" for the U.S. efforts. Putin confirmed that Russia has received the plan proposed by the United States and is willing to engage in negotiations. Ukraine and the United States held their first round of talks on the U.S. plan in Geneva. After the talks, Ukraine claimed to have made "significant progress," and Zelenskyy stated that he had received positive signals from the United States. The U.S. peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. The U.S. Secretary of State described the talks as "productive," while European leaders formulated a counter-proposal to the U.S. plan.

The G20 South Africa Summit emphasized multilateral cooperation and common development, and China called for a return to solidarity and collaboration. The Leaders' Declaration of the summit proposed leveraging artificial intelligence, data governance and innovation to promote sustainable development, and confirmed the advancement of the "Critical Minerals Framework." Canada and India agreed to launch negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

The COP30 Summit concluded on Saturday. A climate agreement was reluctantly adopted amid "major differences," with no mention of "reducing fossil fuel use."

Japan approved a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus package, the largest scale since the pandemic. A Japanese government advisor stated that the Kishida administration will take more proactive measures to intervene in the yen market, and there is no need to wait for the yen to reach the 160 threshold against the U.S. dollar.

Global Times reported that the U.S. government is considering allowing Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China, which boast twice the performance of the H20 chips.

Huawei unveiled its groundbreaking AI technology by launching and open-sourcing the AI container technology Flex:ai.

An internal letter from Sam Altman of OpenAI was exposed. In the letter, he acknowledged that Google has surpassed OpenAI, whose leading edge has narrowed, and warned of the coming of "difficult times."

Google made another major move by launching BigQuery AI. This intelligent agent can handle data analysis and management tasks in response to simple user instructions directly.

# Details of Key News

## Global Highlights

China has sent a letter to Guterres regarding Takichi's wrong remarks and actions, clarifying its stance to all member states of the United Nations. Wang Yi stated: "China urges Japan to reflect on its mistakes and correct them at an early date, and not to cling to its wrong course."

The third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve adopted a dovish stance, stating that there is still room for interest rate cuts "in the near term," and market expectations for a rate cut in December exceeded 70% intraday. In a speech, Williams said that as the labor market cools, the downside risks facing employment have increased, while the upside risks to inflation have eased. He believes that monetary policy is currently in a moderately tight state, but the degree of restrictiveness is lower than that before recent actions.

Nvidia failed to save U.S. stocks—can he do it? Why the remarks of this Federal Reserve official matter. The phrase "in the near term" mentioned by Williams has a certain degree of ambiguity, but the most obvious interpretation refers to the December meeting. Although he may be expressing his personal views, the signals from the "Big Three" of the Federal Reserve's leadership on key policy issues are almost always approved by the Fed Chair. Sending such a signal without Powell's approval would be a serious professional mistake.

Fed Vice Chair: The AI boom is not "Dot-com Bubble 2.0," but debt risks need vigilance. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that AI companies have actual profits and stable cash flows, with price-to-earnings ratios far lower than the peak of the dot-com bubble, and there are only about 50 core companies rather than thousands. He pointed out that the debt leverage of AI companies is limited, which reduces the possibility of risk transmission, but warned that the leverage ratio may rise in the future and needs close attention. Regarding the impact of AI on the economy and monetary policy, he believes there are still uncertainties and it is too early to make a judgment.

Trump's "designated" Fed Governor Mester: The impact of September non-farm payrolls is "distinctly dovish," and November CPI may be released after the December interest rate decision. Mester said that the September non-farm payrolls report released overnight was "distinctly dovish," which strengthened the evidence that the U.S. labor market is continuing to cool. He further revealed his policy tendency, stating that if his vote were decisive in the next interest rate meeting, "he would vote in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut."

2025 FOMC voter: Expects to resume balance sheet expansion soon; December rate cut unlikely; asset valuations too high. Logan, President of the Dallas Fed who previously worked in the market operations department of the New York Fed for a long time, once again called for a slower pace in continuing interest rate cuts, saying that the Fed will most likely need to stand pat at its December meeting. She mentioned that high asset valuations and narrow credit spreads not only mean that policy rates may not be particularly tight, but also mean that interest rates need to offset the tailwind effects brought by the current financial environment.

5 out of 12 voters tend to "oppose rate cuts"; the market is "counting votes" for Fed voters; "Powell is not showing up now to let everyone's voice be heard." The market is shifting from focusing on the overall consensus of the Fed to calculating the voting tendencies of individual policymakers. Dissenting votes, which were once rare during the Powell era, have now increased significantly. Analysts believe that the December decision is becoming the closest vote in years, with a 50-50 chance of a rate cut or standing pat.

For the first time in history, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) canceled the release of October CPI; the November report will be released on December 18, excluding the month-on-month increase. The BLS stated that it can still obtain some price data for that month and will release relevant figures for October in the November CPI report "when possible." In the November report, for items with missing October data, the one-month percentage increase for November will not be released. The November CPI report will be released after the Fed's last meeting of this year.

The preliminary reading of S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI for November 1 stood at 54.8, the highest in four months. The services PMI accelerated its growth, while the manufacturing PMI saw a slowdown in expansion. Inflationary pressures accelerated for the first time since July, and under the pressure of high costs, corporate hiring remained moderate. Manufacturers reported a worrying combination: slower growth in new orders and a record increase in finished goods inventories. Analysts said that if demand fails to pick up, the accumulation of these unsold inventories means that factory output expansion may slow in the coming months; this in turn may spread to many service industries, leading to a slowdown in their growth.

The preliminary reading of the Euro Zone's November Manufacturing PMI was 49.7, unexpectedly falling back below the 50-mark (the line separating expansion from contraction), with manufacturing sectors in both Germany and France deteriorating. The preliminary reading of the Euro Zone's November Composite PMI was 52.4, remaining stable above the 50-mark, slightly lower than the expected value and the October figure of 52.5. There was a divergence between the services and manufacturing sectors: the preliminary reading of the services PMI was 53.1, recording the best monthly performance in one and a half years. By country, manufacturing in both Germany and France deteriorated—Germany's manufacturing fell below the 50-mark, while France saw disappointing production and order volumes, with manufacturing unexpectedly declining.

Bitcoin once fell below the $81,000 mark, which may mark its largest monthly drop since 2022. On Friday, Bitcoin fell by more than 30% from its October high. The total market value of the cryptocurrency market dropped below $3 trillion, and the investor sentiment index fell to the "extreme fear" level. The sharp drop was driven by the resonance of large-scale forced liquidations, ETF sell-offs, and "whale" cash-outs. In addition, institutions have not shown signs of bottom-fishing, and the weakening of market liquidity has increased the risk of volatility.

How panicked is the crypto market? Even the "original whale" has fled—Owen Gunden liquidated $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin holdings in one month. On Thursday, Owen Gunden transferred his last 2,499 Bitcoins to the crypto exchange Kraken, worth $228 million. Since October 21, this wallet has sold a total of approximately 11,000 Bitcoins, completely emptying its holdings. In sharp contrast, institutional investors have continued to increase their positions, with their shareholding ratio in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs jumping from 27% in the second quarter of 2024 to 40%.

U.S. retail investors adopt a "differentiated approach" to bottom-fishing: buying stocks and selling crypto; Bitcoin falls below "production cost" for the first time since July 2020. Since November, retail investors have sold approximately $4 billion worth of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, setting a new record for historical sell-offs. At the same time, the net inflow of global stock ETFs has reached as high as $96 billion. JPMorgan believes that this "differentiated" behavior indicates that retail investors do not view the crypto crash as a signal of a shift in overall risky assets.

UBS: A "complete washout" is needed to turn bullish. Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 25% this month, on track to record its worst monthly performance since 2022. Nearly $1 billion worth of positions were liquidated in overnight trading on Thursday, triggering a chain reaction. The current environment is highly similar to the 2022 crash period, with forced liquidations, liquidity depletion, and extreme panic dominating the market. UBS warned that continued declines may force retail investors to sell their holdings, and "it may take such a complete washout before the market can shift to a more positive stance by the end of the year."

Yellen unexpectedly appears at a "Bitcoin-themed bar"; the crypto community is "overjoyed": "This is the signal!" U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen unexpectedly appeared at a Bitcoin-themed bar in Washington, a move seen by the cryptocurrency industry as a clear support signal from the federal government. This bar brand has become an important link between politics and cryptocurrency, and Trump also held a campaign event here before. Bitcoin's price has fallen from its high of $125,000, but the industry believes that the Treasury Secretary's endorsement marks the U.S. long-term strategic commitment to integrating digital assets into the mainstream financial system.

Trump issues an "ultimatum": The 27th is the deadline for Ukraine to accept the U.S. peace plan; Putin: Has received the plan proposed by the U.S., and Russia is willing to negotiate. Reports on Friday stated that the Trump administration is urging Ukraine to agree to a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict by the 27th. Putin said that the plan proposed by the U.S. has not yet been publicly discussed, and only the general framework has been involved so far; Russia needs to conduct substantive discussions on all details of the plan. The White House Press Secretary said on Thursday that Trump supports the plan, which is "still being revised," and the White House believes that both sides of the conflict should be able to accept it.

U.S. media disclose the full content of the White House's draft 28-point new plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Xinhua News Agency, the plan states that Ukrainian troops will withdraw from parts of Donetsk Oblast currently under their control, and the evacuation area will be regarded as a neutral demilitarized buffer zone; Ukraine will hold elections within 100 days; the lifting of sanctions against Russia will be agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis; the U.S. and Russia will sign long-term cooperation agreements in fields such as energy and rare earth metal mining; Russia will conclude non-aggression agreements with Ukraine and Europe; NATO will no longer expand and will not station troops in Ukraine; and European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

Responding to the U.S.-drafted 28-point plan for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Zelenskyy: Will propose an alternative plan. When talking about the 28-point plan proposed by the U.S. to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said that he will propose an alternative plan, but "will never give the enemy a reason to say that Ukraine does not want peace." On November 20 (local time), a number of senior U.S. officials confirmed that the draft of a 28-point plan drafted and promoted by the U.S. to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been finalized, with key points including Russia concluding non-aggression agreements with Ukraine and Europe, and Ukraine committing not to join NATO.

International oil prices rose in the short term; sources said Ukraine and its European allies oppose key parts of the U.S.-Russia plan. Although the prospect of the U.S. promoting a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement has made the market worry about an increase in global supply, putting pressure on oil prices. Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer of Karobaar Capital LP in Chicago, said: "The peace plan has reduced some of the geopolitical tensions surrounding crude oil, but this is not a game-changer. Before specific matters occur, this is more of a knee-jerk reaction rather than a structural shift."

In response to the U.S.-proposed 28-point new plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, representatives from the U.S., Ukraine, the European Union, as well as Britain, France, and Germany held talks in Geneva, Switzerland on Sunday, November 23 (local time). The first round of U.S.-Ukraine talks in Geneva ended on Sunday, and Ukraine claimed to have made "significant progress." Zelenskyy issued a statement on the Geneva talks, saying that he had received positive signals from the U.S.; the U.S. peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests, and Ukraine is making further efforts to ensure that all elements can truly and effectively achieve the main goals expected by the Ukrainian people, ultimately ending the bloodshed and the war.

Trump said that Ukraine's leadership has "no gratitude" for the U.S. efforts. The U.S. Secretary of State said: The U.S.-Ukraine talks in Geneva were "productive" and were the most productive and meaningful meeting held between the two sides so far.

The Group of Twenty (G20) Leaders' Summit concluded in South Africa on Sunday, emphasizing multilateral cooperation and common development. Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa (the rotating presidency), implicitly criticized Trump in his opening speech on Saturday, stating that the integrity and credibility of the G20 must be maintained. In his speech at the closing ceremony on Sunday, Ramaphosa emphasized that the summit successfully adopted the *Leaders' Declaration*, which reflects the G20's firm determination to safeguard multilateral cooperation and promote common development amid the difficult global situation.

### G20 South Africa Summit Leaders' Declaration: Artificial Intelligence, Data Governance, and Innovation for Sustainable Development  

According to Xinhua News Agency, the G20 South Africa Summit Leaders' Declaration proposes that artificial intelligence, data governance, and innovation should promote sustainable development. To fully unleash the potential of artificial intelligence, share its benefits fairly, and mitigate risks, we will strive to promote international cooperation and further discuss artificial intelligence, recognizing the need to include the voices of both developed and developing countries.  

According to CCTV News, on the climate issue, all parties reaffirmed their commitment to increasing climate financing and investment for developing countries, supporting a fair and orderly energy transition, and emphasizing the importance of achieving deep, rapid, and sustainable emission reductions. The summit also confirmed the advancement of the "Critical Minerals Framework" to promote sustainable development opportunities brought by critical resources globally.  

China calls for a return to solidarity and collaboration. According to Huanqiu.com, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the G20 South Africa Summit and delivered a speech. Li Qiang said that currently, the world economy is once again facing huge challenges, with unilateralism and protectionism on the rise, and an increase in various trade restrictions, confrontations, and conflicts. The differences in interests and demands among various parties and the deficiencies in global cooperation mechanisms are prominent reasons hindering the unity of the international community. The G20 should face up to existing problems, explore solutions, and push all parties back to the right track of solidarity and collaboration.  

During the summit, Canada and India agreed to launch negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau made some outspoken comments on U.S. President Trump's boycott of the summit, saying that the world can make progress on a range of issues without the United States.  

After the U.S. proposed a new 28-point peace plan and Trump demanded that Ukraine agree by Thursday this week, the Ukraine issue has become a top agenda for European leaders. European leaders rushed to formulate a counter-proposal to the U.S.-proposed Ukraine peace plan, seeking to provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause.  

The COP30 Summit concluded on Saturday; a climate agreement was reluctantly adopted amid "major differences," with no mention of "fossil fuel reduction." Countries at the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) reluctantly adopted a new climate action agreement, calling for accelerating responses to climate change, but there was a serious setback on the issue of fossil fuels. The final text did not set an energy transition roadmap. The plan to phase out fossil fuels promoted by the European Union and more than 80 countries was resisted by oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, and was ultimately passed with a compromise through indirect wording.  

Japan approved a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus package, the largest scale since the pandemic. However, this massive stimulus package has triggered market concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation.  

Japanese government advisor: No need to wait for the 160-yen mark; the Kishida administration will intervene in the yen more proactively. Takuji Aida, a member of the Japanese government advisory group, said that Japan has sufficient foreign exchange reserves and the economic situation is not severe, providing sufficient conditions for intervention actions. It is expected that the Fumio Kishida administration will adopt a more proactive stance in intervening in the yen to curb the inflationary pressure caused by the weak yen.  

Huanqiu.com: Reports say the U.S. government is considering allowing Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China. Sources stated that the U.S. Department of Commerce, which is responsible for regulating U.S. export controls, is reviewing changes to export restrictions to China and said that the relevant plan may change. It is estimated that the performance of the H200 chip is twice that of Nvidia's H20 chip. Jensen Huang once admitted that due to U.S. export restrictions, Nvidia's chip sales to China have stagnated, and it is expected that sales in China will be zero in the next two quarters.  

OpenAI's Altman's internal letter exposed: Admits Google has surpassed, OpenAI's leading edge narrows, warns of "difficult times" ahead. OpenAI CEO Altman said that Google's progress in the field of artificial intelligence "may bring some temporary economic headwinds to our company." He admitted that the new AI recently created by Google seems to have surpassed OpenAI in terms of development methods. Despite the pressure, Altman said he hopes to focus on "very ambitious bets" in technology, even if it means OpenAI will "temporarily fall behind under the current system."  

Google makes another push: Launches BigQuery AI; intelligent agents handle data analysis and management with simple instructions. Users can describe their needs in natural language, allowing intelligent agents to automatically generate production-ready Structured Query Language (SQL) code. Without moving data or mastering complex frameworks, users can complete model training, inference, and workflow automation within Google's data analysis platform BigQuery, covering the entire machine learning lifecycle from feature engineering to model training, evaluation, tuning, deployment, and inference.  

Huawei's breakthrough AI technology revealed! According to the Shanghai Securities News, Huawei released and open-sourced the AI container technology Flex:ai. Through software innovation, it can realize the unified management and efficient utilization of computing resources from Nvidia, Ascend, and other third parties. The computing power segmentation technology it adopts enables a single card to carry multiple AI workloads simultaneously. In scenarios where AI workloads cannot fully utilize the computing power of the entire card, the average utilization rate of computing resources can be increased by 30%.  

# Domestic Macroeconomics

Takichi Sanae’s latest statement: "No change in stance on the Taiwan issue!" The Ministry of Foreign Affairs questioned: "Japan is stepping up 'rearmament'—what is its true intention?" The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that if Japan sincerely intends to develop a China-Japan strategic and mutually beneficial relationship and build a constructive and stable China-Japan relationship that meets the requirements of the new era, it should abide by the spirit of the four Sino-Japanese political documents and the political commitments made, immediately withdraw its wrong remarks, and effectively reflect its commitments to China in practical actions.

# Domestic Industries/Individuals

## Moore Threads: Market demand for AI computing acceleration chips surges explosively; GPUs remain the dominant chips  

Zhang Jianzhong, founder, chairman, and general manager of Moore Threads, stated that with the rapid expansion of China's AI downstream application market, the market demand for AI computing acceleration chips has witnessed explosive growth, attracting the participation of various chip manufacturers. Currently, GPUs remain the dominant chips in the AI market. However, other types of chips represented by ASICs and FPGAs have also achieved commercialization and occupy a certain share in the market. In the future, as Chinese GPU companies continue to make technological breakthroughs, the market size of AI computing acceleration chips is expected to grow rapidly.

## Duan Yongping: "I don’t want to be friends with Musk, but investing in Tesla is okay"  

Duan Yongping recently stated that he has started investing in Tesla by selling short-term put options. Although he previously clearly expressed that he dislikes Musk’s character and does not want to be friends with him, he recognizes Musk’s capabilities and the differentiated advantages of Tesla’s products. He insists that "being friends is one thing, and investing is another," and judges that this investment may turn out to be correct when viewed in ten years.

## Zhang Junjie, founder of Bawang Chaoji, refutes rumors: "Never been married before; there’s no truth to the 'disabled daughter of a tea tycoon' story. My family has been deeply hurt, so I must speak up"  

"In my solemn statement: Before I met my wife (Gao Haichun), I had never been married, and there is no truth to any story about the 'disabled daughter of a tea tycoon,'" Zhang Junjie said on his WeChat Moments. "As a husband, I need to protect my wife and family. I love them and cannot stand by and watch them be harmed by rumors."

# Overseas Macroeconomics

## Goldman Sachs traders "review" the logic behind the U.S. stock slump: Fed turns hawkish "kicks off," Google (not Nvidia) reshapes "AI trading," crypto market hits retail investors hard, and "systematic selling" ensues  

The key to this round of slump lies in the breakdown of multiple market consensuses: The Fed’s unexpected hawkish turn dashed rate-cut expectations; Google’s Gemini-3 reshaped the AI landscape, turning AI from a "broad rally" to a "winner-takes-all" scenario; retail investors’ sentiment collapsed due to the crypto market crash, transforming from "diamond hands" (long-term holders) to "sellers"; systematic funds (such as CTA and vol-control funds) were forced to cut positions amid amplified volatility, eventually leading to the conversion of technical selling into systematic selling.

## Citadel’s Chief Strategist: "AI investment sentiment is saturated, Fed leans hawkish, K-shaped economic consumption divergence—U.S. stocks now face 'ten major bearish factors'"  

Scott Rubner, Chief Strategist at Citadel, pointed out that the U.S. stock market is currently facing "ten major bearish risks": peaking AI investment sentiment, sustained Fed hawkish stance, rising election volatility, and hidden concerns over liquidity tightening. In addition, issues such as high U.S. stock valuations, extremely concentrated market breadth, cracks in private credit, K-shaped economic divergence, and crypto deleveraging are intertwined, indicating increased market fragility. Liquidity pressure and policy uncertainty may trigger more severe tests.

## Dalio interprets "when bubbles burst": "Big stock market bubble + wide wealth gap = huge danger"  

Dalio stated that the U.S. stock market is currently in a bubble, and bubbles do not burst simply because valuations are too high. Historically, what truly triggers a crash is a liquidity crisis—when investors are suddenly forced to sell assets on a large scale to repay debts, pay taxes, or meet other liquidity needs. Against the backdrop that the wealthiest 10% of the U.S. population holds nearly 90% of stocks, the risk of such liquidity shocks is escalating.

## A quarter of U.S. unemployed hold bachelor’s degree or higher, a record high proportion  

In September, the number of unemployed people aged 25 and above in the U.S. with at least a bachelor’s degree exceeded 1.9 million, accounting for a quarter of the total unemployed population in the country. Since data recording began in 1992, this proportion has never been so high before 2025. Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan Chase, pointed out that the rising unemployment rate among college-educated groups should further fuel concerns about AI-induced job losses.

## Second major bank after Morgan Stanley! JPMorgan withdraws its December rate-cut forecast: "Skip December, resume rate cuts in January"  

JPMorgan has become the second major Wall Street investment bank to withdraw its forecast of a Fed rate cut in December. It believes that while U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September (a new high), the unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, sending mixed signals. It is expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in December and delay the resumption of rate cuts until January and May 2026. The bank’s chief economist believes that the mixed report will trigger intense debate within the FOMC, and the outcome of the December decision will be extremely close—dissenting votes from committee members may occur whether the Fed pauses or continues rate cuts.

## Head of Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund: "Signs of long liquidation in U.S. stocks; AI cycle seems to enter a new phase of skepticism"  

Pasquariello from Goldman Sachs believes that the market has experienced a significant risk shift this week, with some signs of capitulation. Investors have begun to doubt the sustainability of capital expenditures and future returns of large-scale cloud service providers. He still maintains the judgment that the main upward trend of U.S. stocks remains intact, and expects the S&P 500 Index to close above the current level by the end of 2025, but has lowered his expectations for the stock market’s performance next year.

## Focus on the AI bubble—don’t just盯着 Nvidia and Oracle CDS; the U.S. trillion-dollar "private credit" sector is facing a major crisis  

A latest report from Goldman Sachs warns that Blue Owl, a U.S. private credit giant, has seen its stock price plummet due to the collapse of its fund merger plan, while also facing liquidity pressure from a surge in investor redemptions. This risk event has exposed deep-seated cracks in the $1.7 trillion private credit market. Its impact has exceeded the scope of a single company and is shaking the core financing channels that support grand narratives such as AI infrastructure.

## "Crypto Bull" Tom Lee: "Crypto market correction may be near an end; Bitcoin is becoming a leading indicator for U.S. stocks"  

Tom Lee, known as the "crypto bull," stated that an anomaly in the crypto market on October 10 triggered automatic liquidations, with 2 million accounts liquidated. Market makers, after suffering heavy losses, reduced their balance sheets, leading to a vicious cycle of liquidity depletion. Referring to the eight-week recovery period required after the large-scale liquidation in 2022, six weeks have now passed, suggesting that the correction may end in another two weeks.

## Is the gold pattern changing? "Russian Central Bank sells physical gold for the first time to 'supplement the budget'; 'stablecoin leader'’s gold hoarding scale approaches that of small central banks"  

The Central Bank of Russia, the world’s fifth-largest gold reserve holder, has confirmed for the first time that it is selling physical gold reserves to supplement the budget, highlighting fiscal pressure under Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Tether, a stablecoin issuer, has rapidly emerged as the world’s largest non-sovereign gold holder, with gold holdings reaching 116 tons—its gold hoarding scale is comparable to that of small central banks. It increased its holdings by 26 tons in the third quarter alone, equivalent to 2% of global demand. Analysts point out that this has profoundly changed the traditional buying and selling structure of the market.

## Goldman Sachs sharply raises long-term copper price expectations and believes aluminum prices are too high in the short term  

Goldman Sachs stated that copper will face a supply gap in the later part of this decade due to resource constraints and growing demand in key areas. It has raised its long-term forecast for copper prices in 2035 to $15,000 per ton. Although aluminum demand will benefit from demand drivers similar to those of copper and substitution effects, aluminum will not face the resource constraints encountered by copper. It is expected that aluminum prices will fall to $2,350 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026. The copper-aluminum price ratio will rise from an average of 3.8:1 in 2025 to 4.4:1 in 2035.

# Overseas Companies

## Nvidia internal meeting: Jensen Huang admits: "It’s too hard—'good performance means an AI bubble'; 'a little underperformance, and the whole world will collapse'"  

Jensen Huang rarely admitted that Nvidia is now facing an unsolvable dilemma: good performance will lead to accusations of fueling the AI bubble, while poor performance will be seen as evidence of the bubble bursting.

## Actual test of Nano Banana Pro: "Incredibly powerful! I don’t even want to call it AI—it’s AGI at the visual level!"  

Google’s Nano Banana Pro has demonstrated extremely strong visual generation and logical understanding capabilities. This model can not only instantly convert obscure papers, codes, and financial reports into clearly logical whiteboard notes or charts to achieve extreme "data compression" but also possesses a hard-core knowledge base in fields such as physics, biology, and industry (e.g., PCB manufacturing). With its accurate text rendering capabilities and high character consistency, it is regarded as a prototype of AGI at the visual level and the most powerful productivity tool.

## Facing doubts about the AI bubble: Google’s AI infrastructure chief admits: "The company must double AI computing power every six months to meet demand"  

Amin Vahdat, Head of Google Cloud AI Infrastructure, revealed at an all-staff meeting on November 6 that the company must double its computing power every six months to meet the demand for AI services and expects to achieve a 1,000-fold increase in computing power within the next 4-5 years. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet, acknowledged concerns about the AI bubble at the meeting but emphasized that the risk of underinvestment is even greater.

# Industries/Concepts

1. **Computing Power**: Recently, Google disclosed its grand goal for future AI infrastructure at its all-staff meeting, planning to "double computing power capacity every 6 months" and achieve a "1,000-fold capability increase" within the next 4-5 years. Vahdat, Head of Google Cloud AI Infrastructure, emphasized that competition in AI infrastructure is the most critical and costly part of the entire AI race. He pointed out that Google’s task is not to outspend others but to build more reliable, high-performance, and scalable infrastructure.

2. **Storage**: On November 23, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) launched its latest DDR5 product series, with a maximum speed of 8000Mbps and a maximum chip capacity of 24Gb, while simultaneously releasing seven module products covering the entire range of servers, workstations, and personal computers. CXMT demonstrated its latest DDR5 series products on-site, as well as the latest LPDDR5X mobile memory with a maximum speed of 10667Mbps and a maximum chip capacity of 16Gb. It is reported that these two product series rank among the first echelon in the industry in terms of both speed and capacity, marking that domestic memory chips have the technical strength to compete with leading international manufacturers.

3. **Huawei Industry Chain**: According to reports, at the 2025 AI Container Application Implementation and Development Forum held on November 21, Huawei officially launched its AI container technology—Flex:ai. At the same time, it joined hands with three universities to announce that this cooperative achievement will be open-sourced to the public, helping to solve the problem of computing power resource utilization. The Flex:ai XPU pooling and scheduling software launched and open-sourced this time achieves precise matching between AI workloads and computing power resources through refined management and intelligent scheduling of intelligent computing power resources such as GPUs and NPUs, which can significantly improve computing power utilization.

4. **Low-Altitude Economy**: On November 22, at the 2025 China "5G+" Industrial Internet Conference, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially launched China’s commercial pilot of satellite IoT services. The commercial pilot period is two years, with the goal of enriching the supply of the satellite communication market and supporting the safe and healthy development of emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy through the implementation of the commercial pilot of satellite IoT services.

5. **Pig Farming**: On November 21, an executive meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs required strengthening the comprehensive regulation of live pig production capacity, accelerating the construction of a high-quality development pattern for the live pig industry featuring dynamic supply-demand adaptation, reasonable scale structure, and coordinated industrial chain improvement. It is necessary to strengthen production and market monitoring and early warning, dynamically adjust the target for the normal stock of breeding sows nationwide, carry out counter-cyclical adjustments in advance, and prevent major fluctuations. Efforts should be made to improve the competitiveness of the entire live pig industry chain, improve the modern live pig breeding system, further promote food-saving actions in the breeding industry, optimize the layout of live pig slaughtering and processing, actively promote the harmless treatment and resource utilization of manure, and effectively do a good job in the regular prevention and control of major animal diseases such as African swine fever. Large live pig enterprises should be guided to improve quality and efficiency and develop steadily, while supporting small and medium-sized farms and households in developing moderate-scale breeding.

6. **Robotics**: The 23rd Guangzhou International Automobile Exhibition was held at the Canton Fair Complex from November 21 to 30. In addition to traditional exhibits such as new car models, many domestic mainstream automakers including GAC Group and XPeng Motors showcased important achievements in the field of cross-border embodied intelligence—their latest robots—at this year’s Guangzhou Auto Show.

7. **Nuclear Power**: According to reports, Unit 2 of the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Plant in Fujian successfully achieved grid connection for the first time on November 22 and began supplying electricity to the power grid, marking significant progress in the mass construction of the "Hualong One" nuclear power technology. Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Plant is the starting point for the mass construction of "Hualong One" and is currently the world’s largest "Hualong One" nuclear power base, with plans to build 6 "Hualong One" nuclear power units. After the base is fully completed, it is expected to provide more than 60 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, which is estimated to meet 75% of the total electricity demand of Xiamen and Zhangzhou in southern Fujian.

# Today’s Key News Preview

- The White House will brief on the disclosure of the draft 28-point new plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict; new progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected in the near future.

- Media reports indicate that Trump plans to sign a new AI policy called the "Genesis Plan" at the White House.

- Release of WeRide’s financial report.

<End of Full Text>

# Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is risky, and investment needs to be prudent. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Investment made based on this article shall be at the user’s own risk.