Morning News

**Source**: Wall Street Insights

**Market Overview**

The US stock market was closed. US stock index futures rose slightly, with S&P 500 futures up nearly 0.2%. European stocks rebounded, and the pan-European stock index emerged from a trough of more than two weeks. Military - industrial stocks RENK rose more than 7% and RHM rose more than 3%; Novo Nordisk closed up nearly 2%.

The US dollar index hit a five - week low. The offshore RMB fell more than 100 points intra - day, breaking through 7.13 and moving away from a nearly ten - month high. Bitcoin broke through the 108,000 - yuan mark to a two - month low, and then rebounded more than 2,000 yuan at one point. Ethereum fell nearly 4% intra - day. The Trump - family - supported token WLFI fell more than 30% at one point.

Crude oil rebounded more than 1% intra - day, and Brent oil refreshed a one - week closing high. Gold rose more than 1% intra - day. Gold futures hit an intra - day all - time high, silver hit a high since 2011, spot silver rose more than 2% intra - day, breaking through $40 for the first time since 2011.

During the Asian session, the ChiNext Index rose more than 2%, computing power hardware stocks were strong, the Hang Seng Index rose 2%, Alibaba soared 18%, BYD fell more than 5% against the trend, government bonds rebounded, and black commodities declined.

**Top News**

Specific arrangements for China's September 3 military parade: It is carried out in two steps, the parade ceremony and the formation march, with a duration of about 70 minutes.

Wang Yi introduced the eight major achievements of the SCO Tianjin Summit, including expressing a just position in support of the multilateral trading system, deciding to establish the SCO Development Bank, setting up six practical cooperation platforms such as energy, green industry, and digital economy, and formulating six high - quality development action plans such as for AI cooperation.

A grand event in the cryptocurrency circle: The "core token" WLFI of the Trump family began trading, and it fell more than 30% on the first day at one point.

Morgan Stanley: Alibaba has become China's best AI enabler, and it is expected that the revenue growth rate of Alibaba Cloud will accelerate to more than 30% in this fiscal quarter.

China's electric vehicle companies' August performance: XPeng's delivery volume increased by 169% year - on - year, NIO delivered 31,300 vehicles, reaching a new historical high, and Xiaomi's delivery volume exceeded 30,000 vehicles again.

**Market Closing Reports**

European and US stocks: The European STOXX 600 index rose 0.23% to 551.43 points.

A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3,875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to 12,828.95 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.29% to 2,956.37 points.

Bond market: The US bond market was closed.

Commodities: Brent October crude oil futures closed up about 1% at $68.15 per barrel.

# Detailed Top News

## Global Highlights

### Specific Arrangements for the September 3 Military Parade Released

The military parade will be conducted in two phases: the parade ceremony and the march - past, with a total duration of approximately 70 minutes. During the parade ceremony phase, the participating troops will line up along Chang'an Avenue and proudly receive the inspection of the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, the President of the People's Republic of China, and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. In the march - past phase, the troops will pass through Tiananmen Square in the order of the air flag - guarding echelon, the foot - march formation, the battle flag formation, the equipment formation, and the air echelon.

### Speech by the President of the People's Republic of China at the "SCO +" Meeting

China is willing to actively share the opportunities of its ultra - large - scale market and continue to implement the High - Quality Development Action Plan for Economic and Trade Cooperation targeting the SCO family. China will establish three major cooperation platforms with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the fields of energy, green industry, and digital economy, as well as three major cooperation centers for scientific and technological innovation, higher education, and vocational and technical education. Moreover, in the next five years, China will work with other SCO member states to implement the newly added "10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power" and "10 million kilowatts of wind power" projects. China is ready to work with all parties to build a well - functioning AI Application Cooperation Center and share the dividends of AI development. All parties are welcome to use the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, and countries with the necessary capabilities are invited to participate in the construction of the International Lunar Research Station.

### Speech by the President of the People's Republic of China at the 25th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

China plans to implement 100 "small but practical" people's well - being projects in member states in need; provide 2 billion yuan of free assistance to member states within this year, and issue an additional 10 billion yuan of loans to member banks of the banking consortium in the next three years; starting from next year, double the number of SCO special scholarship quotas on the existing basis, implement the SCO Doctoral Student Innovation Training Program, and jointly cultivate outstanding academic and scientific research talents; and build 10 "Luban Workshops" in member states and provide 10,000 human resource training quotas in the next five years.

### Statement of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Supporting the Multilateral Trading System

It supports the multilateral trading system based on the rules of the World Trade Organization (hereinafter referred to as "WTO"), with decision - making based on consensus, and featuring openness, transparency, fairness, inclusiveness, equality, and non - discrimination. It reaffirms that the provisions on granting special and differential treatment to developing countries, including the least developed countries, are an integral part of the WTO and its agreements.

### Statement of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Further Deepening International Cooperation in Artificial Intelligence

Member states will take the following actions: strengthen cooperation in AI infrastructure, promote the interconnection of AI infrastructure, and advance international cooperation in AI applications on a voluntary participation basis; promote cooperation in AI talent cultivation, expand inter - university cooperation and academic exchanges, and facilitate the exchange of scientific research achievements and educational resources.

### Wang Yi Introduces Eight Major Achievements of the SCO Tianjin Summit

First, formulating a 10 - year development strategy for the SCO; second, voicing a just stance on safeguarding the achievements of the victory in World War II; third, expressing a fair position in support of the multilateral trading system; fourth, putting in place the "four security centers"; fifth, deciding to establish the SCO Development Bank; sixth, setting up six practical cooperation platforms in areas such as energy, green industry, and digital economy; seventh, formulating six high - quality development action plans; eighth, achieving a new breakthrough in the SCO reform by deciding to merge observer states and dialogue partners into a unified "SCO Partners".

### A Grand Event in the Cryptocurrency Circle: Trump Family's "Core Token" Starts Trading

Based on the current futures price range of $0.20 to $0.30, the fully diluted valuation of WLFI has exceeded $40 billion, which is sufficient to rank it among the top 45 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Early investors can unlock and sell 20% of the total tokens they hold, and this part of the tokens accounts for approximately 5% of the total supply. Some analysts believe that by restricting early liquidity, the project team can reduce short - term selling pressure to maintain price stability. However, there is also a view that "a low - circulation market cap makes it easier to drive up prices".

### Morgan Stanley: Alibaba Has Become China's Top AI Enabler

Morgan Stanley has dubbed Alibaba "China's top AI enabler" and raised the company's target price to $165. Alibaba Cloud has become a key growth engine, with a year - on - year growth of 26% in the first fiscal quarter, of which AI - related revenue contributed more than 20%. It is predicted that the growth rate will further accelerate to over 30% in the second fiscal quarter. The bank believes that the strong growth and long - term value of Alibaba Cloud and its AI business are sufficient to offset the company's short - term losses in the instant retail business.

### Cloud Computing + AI + Instant Retail: A Three - Pronged Drive, Is Alibaba Entering a New Historical Turning Point?

Analysts generally believe that Alibaba has entered a period where investment returns are becoming apparent. It is expected that the company's revenue will achieve sustained double - digit growth within the next 12 - 24 months, and the profit growth rate will accelerate as the losses in the instant retail business narrow. The strong demand for AI inference and the growing demand for large - model training in vertical industries have brought new growth momentum to Alibaba Cloud; the inflection point of the scale effect in the instant retail business has emerged, and the management's target of 1 trillion yuan in flash sale GMV within three years highlights huge room for growth.

### Silver Breaks Through $40 for the First Time Since 2011!

Currently, driven by the rising expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the silver price has broken through the $40 mark for the first time in 14 years, with a year - to - date increase of over 40%. Moreover, the possibility that the United States may include silver in its list of critical minerals has added more room for imagination to the future price trend. Citigroup is bullish on silver, expecting it to reach $43 per ounce.

### Turning Bullish on Gold Again After Half a Year

Guosen Securities believes that the continuous allocation by global central banks, as a necessary condition for the stability of gold prices, still holds. Combined with the escalation from "insufficient global safe - haven assets" to "doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve", which has led to a second - round discount on the U.S. dollar's credit, gold is expected to usher in a new round of allocation opportunities.

### Can the Global Bull Market Continue? The Next 14 Trading Days Will "Tell the Tale"

In the next 14 trading days, the United States will release a series of key data intensively, including the non - farm payrolls report, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Analysts point out that the market is currently digesting a large amount of positive news. If the CPI data is higher than expected and the employment report is strong, traders may suddenly conclude that an interest rate cut is not a certainty, which may lead to a short - term sell - off. At the same time, some Wall Street bulls are increasingly worried that the eerie calm in the market, combined with the seasonal weakness of U.S. stocks, may lead to a 5% - 10% correction.

### August Delivery Data of Electric Vehicle Companies: XPeng's Deliveries Up 169% YoY, NIO Delivers 31,300 Units (a New Record High), Xiaomi's Deliveries Exceed 30,000 Units Again

XPeng's deliveries in August increased by 169% year - on - year, exceeding 30,000 units for the 10th consecutive month, and the target for the next month is to reach 40,000 units; NIO delivered 31,305 new vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 55.2%, setting a new historical high; Leapmotor's deliveries in August rose by more than 88% year - on - year, also hitting a new all - time high; Xiaomi's deliveries in August continued to exceed 30,000 units. BYD's sales of new energy vehicles in August were 373,626 units, compared with 373,083 units in the same period last year.

## Domestic Macroeconomics

### China's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Rises to 50.5 in August, with New Orders Growing at the Fastest Pace Since March

The increase in new orders has driven the recovery of manufacturing production growth, the pace of contraction in new export business has slowed down, purchasing activities and inventories have increased, and business confidence has also improved. However, enterprises remain cautious in terms of employee recruitment.

### Shenwan Hongyuan Macroeconomics: Price Indexes Improve Continuously, but Supply Has Not Shown a Significant Contraction and Is Better Than Demand; Future Focus Should Be on the Effect of "Anti - Involution" Policies

Different from the supply - side structural reform in 2016, before this round of "anti - involution", high - energy - consuming industries have already undergone large - scale centralized transformation. In the future, more attention should be paid to the supply in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, especially when the transmission of upstream prices to the downstream is blocked.

### UBS: Foreign Investors Held Over 3 Trillion Yuan Worth of A - Shares in H1, with Sufficient Room for Increasing Positions in the Future

Fang Dongming, Head of China at UBS Global Financial Markets, stated that China's economy has entered a new cycle of medium - speed development. High - quality enterprises are more likely to stand out and obtain higher valuations. At the same time, scientific and technological innovation, as the core competitiveness of Chinese enterprises to survive economic cycles, will remain the focus of investment in China for a period of time in the future. Fang Dongming said that in June, the stock holdings of foreign investors exceeded 3 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.4% of the total free - float market value of A - shares.

## Domestic Companies

### Goldman Sachs Raises Cambricon's Target Price Again to 2,104 Yuan Only One Week Later!

Based on higher expectations for AI chip shipments and a better operating expense ratio, Goldman Sachs has raised its profit forecast for Cambricon and also increased the target valuation multiple for 2030 from 65x to 69x. Goldman Sachs further raised its shipment forecast for Cambricon, expecting the company's AI chip shipments to reach 145,000 units in 2025, which is higher than the previous forecast of 143,000 units made last week.

### DeepSeek's Latest Release: Full Disclosure of V3/R1 Training Details!

DeepSeek recently released the training details of its large model V3/R1. During the pre - training phase, the model learns language patterns and knowledge through large - scale data. In the optimization training phase, the model parameters are adjusted through task - specific data to adapt to practical applications. To ensure data quality and security, DeepSeek has adopted a number of measures, including data cleaning, algorithmic bias identification, and anonymization processing, and emphasized that the model training does not rely on users' personal information.

### TSMC Dominates the Chip Foundry Market with Q2 Market Share Exceeding 70%

According to data from TrendForce, TSMC's market share in this quarter reached 70.2%, a significant increase from 67.6% in the previous quarter. The overall revenue of the industry increased by 14.6% month - on - month, mainly driven by government subsidy policies in various countries and the active stockpiling of smartphones, AI, PC, and server products. TSMC's strong performance has put pressure on its main competitor Samsung, whose market share dropped slightly to 7.3%.

### Nomura: BYD's Performance Hit Bottom in Q2; Technology Upgrades + Overseas Expansion Are Gaining Momentum, and a Profit Inflection Point Will Be Achieved in 2026

Nomura believes that BYD's performance hit bottom in Q2, mainly due to the incentive measures that the company paid to dealers in advance to cope with competition, and the negative operating leverage effect caused by the failure of production capacity growth to keep pace with the business scale. BYD is making great efforts in R&D investment to prepare for a major upgrade of its technology platform in 2026. At the same time, its overseas market expansion momentum is extremely strong, which is becoming a key engine to offset the pressure in the domestic market.

### Longi Green Energy Plans to Enter the Energy Storage Industry

According to Jiemian News, Longi Green Energy has acquired a stake in Suzhou Jingkong Energy Technology Co., Ltd., an energy storage enterprise. In addition, Longi Green Energy is in contact with another energy storage enterprise and considering an acquisition, and the matter is still under discussion.

### PV Upstream Industry "Crouches and Jumps": Prices of Polysilicon and Glass Both Surge; Will Self - Disciplined Production Cuts Create a Profit Floor?

The main futures contract of polysilicon rose by more than 6% on Monday, and the spot quotes of leading enterprises were increased simultaneously. The quotation for new PV glass orders in September also rose significantly. Positive changes are taking place in the supply - demand pattern of the PV industry. The industry generally believes that with the advancement of industry self - discipline, conventions, and capacity reduction policies, the upward trend of industrial chain prices is expected to continue, the industry prosperity is expected to pick up, and the profit recovery expectation of related companies is enhanced.

### Has the Moat of the Takeaway Industry Disappeared?

The real manifestation of the takeaway moat lies in the catering takeaway business, while the tea takeaway market is a relatively easier market to enter. Moreover, the catering takeaway business is much more sensitive to timeliness than the tea takeaway business. That is why, despite the fierce competition, although JD and Taobao Takeaway have quickly caught up in terms of order volume, Meituan still holds approximately 70% of the GTV market share in the regular meal takeaway market. It will still take a long - term protracted war for competitors to break through this moat.

## Overseas Macroeconomics

### U.S. Stock Valuations Reach an All - Time High, Surpassing the Internet Bubble Era

Currently, the price - to - sales ratio of the S&P 500 Index has reached 3.23x, a record high; the forward price - to - earnings ratio is 22.5x, far higher than the average level of 16.8x since 2000.

### The Most Accurate Analyst for U.S. Stocks, Hartnett: S&P 500 Will Reach a Historical Peak of 9,914 Points in September 2027

Over the past 100 years, the average gain of 14 U.S. stock bull markets has been 177%, with an average duration of 59 months. According to this historical pattern, we are in the middle of an epic bubble, and the end is still far away.

### Is the United States Entering an Era of Industrial Policy?

CITIC Securities believes that the Trump administration's capital participation in some U.S. companies has injected more "policy factors" into the market, suggesting that the United States may enter an era of industrial policy. If the policy is further expanded, it will significantly affect asset pricing: in terms of credit, government participation reduces the tail risks of enterprises; in terms of equity, although it is beneficial in the early stage, governance constraints and regulatory uncertainties will limit the upper limit of valuations.

### ECB President: Price Target Has Been Achieved, and Efforts Will Be Made to Ensure That Euro Zone Inflation Remains at 2%

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the 2% inflation target has been achieved and measures will be taken to maintain price stability. The Acting Governor of the Bank of Slovenia said that the ECB's "easing cycle has ended". Given that inflation is near the 2% target and the economy remains strong, it is generally expected that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time at its meeting next week.

### Warmed - Up Domestic Demand Boosts Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI to Above the Expansion - Contraction Line for the First Time in Three Years, with Strong Rebounds in Germany and France

The growth of Euro Zone factory output in August reached the strongest level since March 2022, and the new orders index expanded at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years. Germany's manufacturing PMI final value rose to 49.8, the highest level in more than two years; France's manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.4, but political unrest still casts a shadow over the economy.

### Euro Zone Unemployment Rate Drops Against the Trend in July, Falling to a Historical Low

The Euro Zone unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in June to 6.2% in July, with the number of unemployed people decreasing by 170,000. This data ties the historical low set in November 2024. The strong labor market data has consolidated the market's expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the short term.

### European Long - Term Bond "Storm": 2 Trillion Euro Dutch Pension Funds "De - Leverage", and the Yields of German and French 30 - Year Government Bonds Hit Multi - Year Highs

To adapt to the new "life - cycle investment" model, Dutch pension funds are unwinding their large - scale positions in long - duration interest rate swaps, leading to the yields of German and French 30 - year government bonds hitting multi - year highs. The market is particularly worried that a large number of funds will switch systems in a concentrated manner at the end of the year, which may cause liquidity mismatches and exacerbate market volatility. Traders are making preparations for this to deal with potential turbulence from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.

# France Trapped in a "Vicious Circle" Dilemma  

As Prime Minister Bérut faces a confidence vote, if he fails to pass it, he will become the fourth head of government to step down within 18 months. France’s frequent political transitions, high debt levels, and soaring borrowing costs have raised concerns from the outside world that it is following in Italy’s footsteps and becoming a new source of instability in the Eurozone.  

## Overseas Companies  

### Meta and Scale AI Fall Out: The Executive Poached for $14.3 Billion Quits, and Their Business Cooperation Collapses  

Meta’s "century - alliance" with Scale AI, which cost a whopping $14.3 billion, took a sharp turn for the worse after just two months. The core executive, who was poached with a sky - high salary, resigned quickly, internal team conflicts persisted, and Meta even switched to competitors because it was dissatisfied with Scale AI’s poor data quality. This once highly - watched alliance between two industry giants quickly turned into a farce that left both sides worse off, putting Meta in an awkward situation of "spending money to learn a lesson".  

### OpenAI Targets India to Build a 1GW - Class Data Center, Speeding Up the "Stargate" Expansion  

OpenAI is seeking to build a large - scale data center with a capacity of at least 1 gigawatt in India and is currently looking for local partners. This move is part of the global expansion plan for the "Stargate" AI infrastructure, aiming to take an important step in the Asian market. At present, the specific location and timetable have not been determined, but its CEO Altman may announce the plan during his visit to India this month.  

### Bracing for the "Worst - Case Scenario"! Major U.S. Retailers Warn Collectively: Tariff Impacts Continue to Escalate, Price Hikes Are Inevitable  

In recent weeks, major retailers such as Walmart, Target, and Best Buy have all stated that price increases related to tariffs have begun to spread to food, household goods, and electronic products. Retail executives and analysts generally believe that as inventory with higher costs arrives at ports one after another, the worst - case scenario for consumers and enterprises may not have arrived yet.  

## Industries/Concepts  

1. **AI Chips**: Alibaba stated that it has prepared "backup plans" for the global supply of AI chips and policy changes. By cooperating with different partners, it has established a diversified supply chain reserve to ensure that its 380 billion yuan investment plan can advance as scheduled. Against the background of major companies increasing their investment in AI chips, fields such as power supplies and liquid cooling are expected to gain new room for growth, and industry leaders with strong business ties to major companies are expected to benefit significantly.  

2. **Resource Stocks**: The rising expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will significantly boost the demand for commodities. In particular, the revaluation of the value of key mineral resources will gradually offset the negative valuation pressure caused by the cyclical nature of commodities. In the second half of 2025 (25H2), non - ferrous metals may enter a cycle of general upward trends in prices, in the following order: Silver > Rare Earths, Cobalt, Tungsten > Tin, Gold, Copper & Aluminum > Molybdenum, Lead & Zinc > Lithium, Nickel.  

3. **Water Services**: A research report from Founder Securities points out that recently, market attention on the water services sector has increased, and its investment logic is shifting from the traditional defensive attribute to the main line of "water price reform — cash flow enhancement — financing channel expansion — asset value revaluation".  

4. **PTA**: The cycle of large - scale capital expenditure on PTA has basically ended. There are not many remaining under - construction PTA facilities in the future, and so far, they are basically delayed until after 2028 for commissioning. The prospect of PTA prosperity is expected to bottom out and reverse between 2026 and 2027. In the first half of 2025, due to the active production reduction of old and outdated facilities, the supply of the industry will shrink to a certain extent, and the prosperity will improve somewhat. It is expected that starting from 2026, the PTA industry will have significant room for recovery.  

## Preview of Today’s Key News  

- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August  

- Eurozone CPI for August  

- NIO releases financial report  

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