HashKey trading moment: Ethereum holds $3,000, Bitcoin’s $115,000 defense line is in urgent need?

Daily Market Key Data Review and Trend Analysis, jointly produced by PANews and HashKey.

1. Market Observation

The Federal Reserve's "renovation gate" controversy continues to escalate. Donald Trump personally went to the Federal Reserve headquarters to pressure Chairman Powell over the $3.1 billion renovation cost and repeatedly urged interest rate cuts. Although Trump has temporarily shelved the idea of firing Powell, White House officials, Republican lawmakers, and Trump's political allies have used this project as a political weapon, continuing to attack Powell by accusing him of "mismanagement" and "misleading Congress," attempting to weaken his credibility to force him to make concessions on interest rate policies. "New Fed News Agency" reporter Nick Timiraos believes that this move is an unconventional public opinion war by Trump to promote interest rate cuts; strategist Brian Gardner pointed out that this move can also divert public attention from other controversies such as the Epstein case. However, the core contradiction of this controversy is that although Trump demands significant interest rate cuts on the grounds of high government borrowing costs and housing purchase pressure, the current financial environment is extremely loose.

Despite unprecedented political pressure, economic fundamentals show that the U.S. financial environment has been extremely loose: the Chicago Fed's broad financial conditions index has fallen to a three-year low, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have hit new highs driven by Google's AI demand, the scale of money market funds has reached $7.1 trillion, and household deposits have remained at a high level of $4.46 trillion. This flood of liquidity has put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma - inflation is still above the target and the job market is strong, but the Trump administration has demanded interest rate cuts of more than 300 basis points on the grounds of high national debt issuance pressure. Analysts are worried that interest rate cuts at this time may exacerbate the stock market bubble. At the same time, OpenAI plans to launch GPT-5 in early August, while Tesla's stock price is under pressure due to a 12% year-on-year decline in second-quarter revenue and a pessimistic outlook.

Stablecoins remain the main narrative in the current market. Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst of HashKey Group, put forward a prospect for the future application of stablecoins, believing that their large-scale adoption will mainly focus on three major areas: B2B settlement, crypto assets and DeFi ecology, and sovereign financial expansion. He pointed out that stablecoins combined with smart contracts can significantly reduce costs and improve efficiency in cross-border corporate settlement and supply chain finance. Within the crypto ecosystem, stablecoins are already core liquidity infrastructure. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges use them as mainstream trading pairs. For example, the daily trading volume of USDT can even exceed $100 billion during market fluctuations. In addition, Jeffrey Ding particularly emphasized the potential of stablecoins driven by policies and anchored to national currencies. Such stablecoins can not only improve the efficiency of cross-border trade and inter-central bank settlements but also conform to the currency sovereignty strategies of various countries in promoting the internationalization of their own currencies and de-dollarization. They may become important tools in the evolution of geopolitical finance in the future.

Regarding Bitcoin, several analysts have warned of short-term correction risks. Analyst Crypto Chase focuses on the key range in the middle of $113,000. Biraajmaan Tamuly pointed out that there is a bearish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator, coupled with a CME gap in the range of $114,380 to $115,635, indicating that the price may adjust downward. Rakesh Upadhyay mentioned that Bitcoin is facing strong selling pressure at the $120,000 resistance level. In the past three days, spot ETFs have had a cumulative net outflow of $285.2 million, but bulls have successfully defended the $115,000 support level. If the price can break through $123,218, it may move towards the target levels of $135,729 and even $150,000. Conversely, if it breaks below $110,530, bears may take the advantage. Analyst Gaah also observed that Bitcoin's cycle indicators have entered the "distribution zone," suggesting a high risk of short-term correction, but he emphasized that key indicators have not yet reached their peaks, indicating that this is not the final top of the bull market. In the medium to long term, Dennis Liu, partner of Momentum 6, gave a buying range of $89,380 and a target price of $200,000.

In contrast, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance. The Glassnode model shows that Ethereum has solid support in the range of $2,000 to $3,000, with key resistance above at $4,500. Crypto Chase is focusing on whether Ethereum will hit the key liquidity level of $3,476 in the short term and rebound quickly. In the long term, Dennis Liu set a buying range of $2,200 and a target price of $10,000 for Ethereum. However, Markus Thielen of 10x Research warned that Ethereum may be unstable in the short term and is at risk of correction. He believes that Ethereum has risen too fast in the short term and is technically "overbought." More importantly, the cost of borrowing Ethereum on platforms such as Aave has soared, which may force some leveraged traders to close their positions and sell, triggering a price decline. He stated that Ethereum's average return in the third quarter since 2013 is 8.19%, while the average return in the fourth quarter is 22.59%.

Market funds are flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other altcoins, but a comprehensive "altcoin season" has not yet been confirmed. Analyst Crypto Chase believes that Solana will rebound quickly after falling to $173. In the NFT field, listed company GameSquare announced the acquisition of the rare "Cowboy Ape" CryptoPunk #5577 from Compound founder Robert Leshner for $5.15 million and plans to incorporate it into its income strategy. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, also stated that NFTs are the ultimate game of Internet status. He predicts that CryptoPunks will outperform Ethereum in terms of US dollar pricing in this cycle because ETH holders will use such assets to "show off" their social status. In addition, after Elon Musk announced the launch of AI version Vine yesterday, the token with the same name VINE surged by more than 100% in a short time, and the current increase has narrowed to 50%.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT on July 25)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

Bitcoin: $115,774 (YTD +23.39%), daily spot trading volume $70.943 billion

Ethereum: $3,638.16 (YTD +8.78%), daily spot trading volume $54.538 billion

Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)

Average GAS: BTC: 0.84 sat/vB, ETH: 0.26 Gwei

Market share: BTC 60.8%, ETH 11.6%

Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: SYRUP, XRP, NEWTL, HYPER, BTC

24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 48.19%/51.81%

Sector gains and losses: Crypto sectors generally corrected, NFT sector fell 7%; AI sector fell 4.3%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 201,010 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $702 million, including $154 million for BTC, $160 million for ETH, and $52.77 million for SOL

BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($118,465.84), lower line of the channel ($116,119.99)

ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($3,494.47), lower line of the channel ($3,425.27)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower lines, it is a medium to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of July 24)

Bitcoin ETFs: +$227 million, turning to net inflow after three consecutive days of outflows

Ethereum ETFs: +$231 million, maintaining net inflows for 15 consecutive days

4. Today's Preview

OKX will delist BADGER, BAL, and NIL perpetual contracts on July 25

Binance Alpha will list DePHY Network (PHY) on July 26

Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4:00 PM on July 25, accounting for 2.84% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $13.4 million;

AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6:00 PM on July 25, accounting for 6.39% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $8.9 million;

Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock approximately 84.27 million tokens at 8:00 PM on July 26, accounting for 4.13% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $6.9 million;

The largest declines among the top 100 by market capitalization today: Pump.fun down 22.4%, dogwifhat down 9.3%, Pudgy Penguins down 8.3%, Fartcoin down 8%, Virtuals Protocol down 6.9%.

HashKey Trading Moment: Ethereum holds steady above $3,000, while Bitcoin's $115,000 defense line is in jeopardy?

5. Hot News

Suspected Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen sent approximately $140 million worth of XRP to exchanges in 7 days

REX-Osprey's Solana staking ETF will integrate JitoSOL and distribute 100% of rewards to shareholders

Tether Treasury newly minted 2 billion USDT on the Ethereum chain in the early morning

TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital plan to raise $400 million for the TONCoin treasury

Strategy intends to increase the fundraising scale for Bitcoin purchases to $2 billion

GameSquare acquired CryptoPunk #5577 for $5.15 million and increased holdings by 12,913 ETH

BitMine's Ethereum holdings exceeded $2 billion, totaling 566,776 ETH

Anchorage Digital and Ethena Labs collaborated to launch USDtb, the first GENIUS-compliant, federally regulated stablecoin

deBridge Foundation launched a reserve fund, using 100% of protocol revenue to repurchase DBR tokens

Ruihe Digital Technology Holdings announced an HK$80 million cryptocurrency investment plan

GoPlus launched a 500 million GPS token security fund

New Solana treasury company Accelerate plans to raise $1.5 billion, with Joe McCann to serve as CEO

FTX's next round of compensation will be executed on September 30, releasing $1.9 billion in disputed creditor reserves

BitMine launched BMNR options trading on the New York Stock Exchange, planning to acquire 5% of Ethereum's supply

This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets. It is committed to setting new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.

Disclaimer: The views in this article solely represent the author's personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, originality, or timeliness of the information in the article, nor shall it be liable for any losses arising from the use or reliance on such information.