Morning News

Source: Wall Street News

**Market Overview**

Investors awaited earnings reports from major tech companies such as Google and Tesla, while digesting tariff-related news. Tech giants in the semiconductor and AI sectors declined, putting an end to the Nasdaq's seven-day winning streak. Thanks to broad gains in most non-tech sectors including healthcare and residential construction, the S&P 500 edged up to a new record high.

General Motors fell more than 8% as its Q2 performance declined due to Trump's tariffs. Texas Instruments issued a pessimistic Q3 guidance, with its after-hours stock price dropping over 11%.

U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down nearly 3 basis points. The U.S. dollar fell for the third consecutive day, dropping nearly 0.5%. Bitcoin rose 2.3% and once reclaimed the $120,000 mark.

Gold rose more than 1%, returning to $3,400, reaching a one-month high. Coking coal and coke futures surged sharply in night trading.

During the Asian session, China's three major A-share indices all hit new yearly highs. Stocks related to the Yalong River Hydropower Station continued to soar, with commodities booming—glass, coking coal, coke, and polysilicon, among others, hit their daily limit ups.

**Top News**

- Bessent: Tariff revenues are expected to reach $2.8 trillion over the next decade, supporting Powell's continued tenure.

- Trump stated that the U.S. and the Philippines have reached a trade agreement and will impose a 19% tariff on the Philippines. Details of the U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement: At least $50 billion in new market access for U.S. goods, with "unimpeded" exports of Indonesia's key minerals. Malaysia is seeking a 20% tariff but refuses to concede on electric vehicle incentives and foreign ownership limits. Thailand said it is close to reaching an agreement with the U.S., with the new tariff rate likely to drop to around 20%.

- Fake resignation letter stirs waves: Rumors of Powell's "resignation" roiled the market, with MAGA lawmakers taking it seriously. Trump toned down his "firing Powell" remarks, and together with Bessent, pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

- Lutnick revealed: Trump calls me almost every night at 1 a.m., including gossip, and once asked me to take the blame.

- Japanese government bonds fell, with growing intra-party calls for Shigeru Ishiba to resign.

- China's domestic commodity market狂欢 collectively, with six major varieties hitting daily limit ups on the same day. Coal stocks surged with a wave of limit ups; is there a rumored "coal mine production inspection" notice? Reporters verified: It is true.

- SAP, the largest weighted stock in European equities, reported weaker-than-expected cloud sales, with tariff concerns and exchange rate fluctuations becoming hidden worries, falling 3% in after-hours trading at one point.

- AI infrastructure accelerates: OpenAI officially announced a partnership with Oracle to expand a 4.5GW data center.

- Medpace's Q2 results crushed expectations, with its stock price surging nearly 55%, driving up CRO concept stocks.

**Market Closing Reports**

- U.S. and European stock markets:

- S&P 500 Index: +0.06% to 6,309.62 points

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.40% to 44,502.44 points

- Nasdaq Composite Index: -0.39% to 20,892.69 points

- Europe's STOXX 600 Index: -0.41% to 544.34 points

- A-shares:

- Shanghai Composite Index: +0.62% to 3,581.86 points

- Shenzhen Component Index: +0.84% to 11,099.83 points

- ChiNext Index: +0.61% to 2,310.86 points

- Bond market:

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: -3.37 basis points to 4.3440%

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: -2.74 basis points to 3.8334%

- Commodities:

- WTI crude oil futures (August): -1.47% to $66.21/barrel

- Brent crude oil futures (September): -0.89% to $68.59/barrel

- COMEX gold futures: +1.02% to $3,441.10/ounce

### Details of Top News

#### Global Highlights

- **Bessent: Tariff revenues expected to reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade, supporting Powell’s continued tenure**. Bessent stated that tariff revenues are substantial, noting August 1 as a "relatively hard deadline" but emphasizing that the quality of agreements matters more. He revealed smooth progress in trade negotiations with Indonesia and Japan. Additionally, he voiced support for Federal Reserve Chair Powell to complete his term, calling for an internal review of Powell’s non-monetary policy functions.

- **Trump announces U.S.-Philippines trade deal, to impose 19% tariff on Philippines; Dow accelerates gains**. Trump said he met with visiting Philippine President Marcos at the White House, where the two reached a trade deal: the Philippines will open its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs. The 19% tariff is lower than the 20% he threatened in a letter two weeks ago. Following Indonesia, the Philippines becomes the second country to reduce the new tariff rate threatened in his August-targeted letter this month through a trade agreement.

- **Details of U.S.-Indonesia trade deal: At least $50 billion in new market access for U.S. goods; "unimpeded" exports of Indonesia’s key minerals**. According to a White House statement, Indonesia will eliminate 99% of tariffs on U.S. industrial, food, and agricultural products, adopt U.S. motor vehicle safety standards, and lift restrictions on key mineral exports. Indonesia will purchase $15 billion worth of U.S. LNG, crude oil, and gasoline; $4.5 billion of soybeans, soybean meal, wheat, and cotton; and $3.2 billion of U.S. aircraft. This is only a preliminary agreement, with negotiations to finalize terms in the coming weeks. A senior Trump administration official noted that goods transshipped through Indonesia will face a 40% tariff.

- **Malaysia seeks 20% tariff but refuses concessions on EV incentives and foreign ownership limits**. Reports indicate Malaysia’s negotiating team aims for a tariff rate below 25% (around 20%), targeting levels similar to regional neighbors like Indonesia and Vietnam. However, it remains cautious about U.S. demands to extend EV tax exemptions, relax foreign ownership caps, and cut fisheries subsidies.

- **Thailand says close to U.S. deal; new tariff rate may drop to around 20%**. Thailand’s finance minister stated that final-stage negotiations are underway to avoid 36% punitive tariffs effective August 1. The new rate is expected to fall to around 20%, aligning with regional peers. Thailand will expand its zero-tariff list for U.S. goods and commit to increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products, LNG, and aircraft.

- **Fake resignation letter stirs chaos: Powell "resignation" rumors roil markets; MAGA lawmakers fall for it**. A forged "resignation letter" of Fed Chair Powell,疑似 AI-generated, went viral on social media, triggering short-term volatility in Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury markets. Several MAGA figures, including Senator Mike Lee, shared the letter before hastily deleting posts. Media noted irregularities in the letter’s seal and spelling errors.

- **Trump tones down "firing Powell" remarks; joins Bessent in pressuring Fed to cut rates**. U.S. President Trump continued criticizing the Fed but softened his stance on dismissing Powell: "He should’ve cut rates many times. People can’t afford homes now, all because of this fool." Trump added that Powell would leave office in eight months anyway.

- **Lutnick reveals: Trump calls me almost nightly at 1 a.m., including gossip, and once asked me to take the blame**. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick told an interview that Trump calls him around 1 a.m. nearly every night. *The New Yorker* reported: "That night, Trump angrily called Lutnick demanding to know how tariffs were determined. Uncertain himself, Trump told Lutnick to defend the tariffs on TV regardless." Lutnick was pressured to "take the blame" even when uninformed.

- **Japanese bonds fall; intra-party calls for Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation intensify**. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces growing calls to resign within his party. A former LDP secretary-general criticized: "Refusing to step down after repeated failures will cost him his last supporters." Financial markets reacted negatively, with JGB yields rising and yen/stocks under pressure. Analysts warn political turmoil, fiscal risks, and trade frictions could trigger a "stock-bond-yen triple crash" for Japanese assets.

- **China’s domestic commodity market狂欢 collectively; what signal does six品种 hitting daily limit ups send?** Main contracts for glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon all hit daily limit ups. Analysts attribute the surge to sustained policy signals against "involution" and rumors of coal mine production inspections sparking supply-tightening expectations. They caution that the rally is policy-driven, with actual supply-demand unchanged; risks include volatility at highs and potential corrections post-September复产.

- **Coal stocks surge with limit ups; is the "coal mine inspection" notice real? Reporter verifies: Yes**. The Paper confirmed with China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association that the circulating notice on "coal mine production inspections" is authentic, though timing remains unconfirmed. Inspections will check: 1) Whether 2024 raw coal output exceeded announced capacity, and 2025 H1 monthly output exceeded 10% of capacity; 2) Whether enterprise groups set over-capacity production targets for subsidiaries in 2025 plans; 3) Whether 2025 quarterly/monthly plans are unbalanced or irrational.

- **Post-coking coal’s return to 1,000 yuan: outlook discussion**. Yide Futures expects short-term strong sentiment and inventory drawdown expectations to keep prices range-bound and firm. Medium-term, the core focus remains marginal supply-demand changes. Sentiment will eventually yield to fundamentals; track domestic raw material 复产进度 and import recovery. Improved balance sheets (supply recovery/import growth) and eased inventory pressure could cool market亢奋.

- **SAP, Europe’s largest-weighted stock, misses cloud sales expectations; tariff fears and exchange rate volatility loom, falling 3% after hours**. SAP’s Q2 cloud revenue, total cloud+software revenue, and cloud backlog all missed estimates, weighed by currency swings and tariff uncertainties. While maintaining full-year targets, it warned of exchange rate headwinds, with after-hours shares dropping 3% at one point.

- **AI infrastructure accelerates: OpenAI partners with Oracle to expand 4.5GW data center**. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced a partnership with Oracle to scale the $500 billion Stargate project. The firms will develop 4.5GW of additional data center capacity in the U.S., pushing total Stargate capacity beyond 5GW with over 2 million chips, advancing toward the 10GW goal. OpenAI noted Oracle began delivering Nvidia GB200 racks last month, with early training/inference workloads underway to push next-gen research boundaries.

- **Medpace Q2 results crush expectations; stock surges nearly 55%, lifting CRO sector**. Medpace’s Q2 revenue and EBITDA rose over 10% YoY, beating analysts’ estimates by over 11%. It raised full-year revenue and profit guidance by at least 11%. After a 29% YTD drop through Monday, shares hit a closing high with record daily gains on Tuesday. Jefferies remains cautious on the CRO sector, deeming the outperformance unsustainable.

- **Beyond tech hype: humanoid robots enter phase two – who lands orders first?** Morgan Stanley argues market expectations for robot technology are fully priced in; investors now focus on who will first secure orders and validate commercial value. Most integrators target delivering hundreds to thousands of units in 2025, with execution to become the key industry benchmark.

- **Bridgewater’s Dalio: Defend currency value**. Dalio stated that the Trump-Powell dispute本质上 revolves around controlling currency value, reflecting inherent tensions between central bankers and reelection-seeking leaders. He advised investors to bet on a "weak currency" trend – a softer dollar and low/still-falling real rates.

#### Domestic Macro

- **PBOC: Property loan growth picks up; household consumption loans keep growing**. As of end-Q2 2025, financial institutions’ RMB loans totaled 268.56 trillion yuan (+7.1% YoY), with H1 new loans at 12.92 trillion yuan. RMB property loans reached 53.33 trillion yuan (+0.4% YoY), 0.6pp higher than end-2024, with H1 additions at 416.6 billion yuan.

- **SAFE’s latest remarks: on RMB exchange rate, foreign inflows into domestic stocks**. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated no significant RMB appreciation/depreciation expectations exist; markets trade rationally, and the currency is set to remain stable at balanced levels. Foreign investors net bought 10.1 billion USD of domestic stocks/funds in H1, with sustainable growth in RMB asset allocation expected. A survey of 75 global central banks showed 30% plan to increase RMB holdings. SAFE will fully cancel registration requirements for foreign direct investment reinvestment nationwide, with policies to be formally released soon.

- **China-EU leaders’ meeting to address sensitive topics; EU presidents visit China Thursday**. The talks will focus on bilateral relations and global geopolitical challenges, plus balancing trade ties, climate change, biodiversity, and green transition.

- **Economic recovery expectations rise; key rate curve ends "inversion"**. China’s 5-year vs 1-year IRS spread turned positive and widened on Tuesday. The curve normalization signals a shift in investor sentiment toward long-term growth, with expectations shifting from monetary easing to policy normalization.

- **China’s infrastructure enters its "DeepSeek moment"**. Guosen Securities argues domestic infrastructure is key to unlocking a "second phase" of domestic demand amid macro changes. Sustained investment in projects like the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower, Hainan Free Trade Port, and urban renewal signals infrastructure’s "DeepSeek moment," driven by policy support and market demand.

- **1.2 trillion yuan Yalong River investment: economic impact?** CSC Financial estimates the 10-year project will invest ~120 billion yuan annually, boosting infrastructure investment by ~0.8% yearly. It expects 1.2 trillion yuan in investment to drive 2.04 trillion yuan in GDP growth over 10 years, averaging 0.15% yearly. July may see policy-driven trading opportunities in domestic demand-linked Chinese assets.

#### Domestic Companies/Industries

- **Tsinghua embodied AI team’s debut after 500 million yuan funding: 55 DOF robot masters 360° spins,街舞, and folding clothes at e-sports speed**. Star Dynamic Era, a Tsinghua-backed team, launched the global-leading humanoid robot L7, breaking records in 360° spins, 4m/s running, and combining街舞 with fine tasks like folding clothes/screwdriving. Its end-to-end model ERA-42 learns 100+ tasks via video; 12-degree hand movement achieves e-sports-level response, with首创 full-size/half-body switching. Over 200 units have been delivered in 2025, with hundreds more in the pipeline.

- **China’s pharmaceutical overseas deals hit $48 billion in H1; how is China reshaping global pharma?** China is evolving from API manufacturer to global innovator. Multinationals, facing patent cliffs, seek cost-effective Chinese R&D (faster trials, lower costs). Meanwhile, Chinese firms expand overseas to ease funding pressures.

#### Overseas Macro

- **U.S. court ruling could be biggest trade wildcard, underappreciated by markets**. A July 31 ruling on presidential tariff authority is critical. If the Federal Circuit Court rules Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs unconstitutional, August 1 negotiations may become irrelevant, forcing the White House to use more complex tools like Sections 122, 232, 338, triggering months of trade volatility.

- **U.S. Commerce chief pushes tariffs, but his son’s firm bets "tariffs will be struck down"?** A company linked to Lutnick’s son is buying potential tariff refund rights at 20-30% discounts, betting Trump’s tariffs may fail legal challenges. The Commerce Department claims Lutnick was unaware and has no control over Cantor.

- **Watch U.S. semiconductor tariffs; impact may exceed expectations, "most likely after mid-August, latest September"**. Barclays expects tiered rates (not 25% flat), rising gradually, with country-specific rates like Section 232 for steel. AI chips and equipment may face tariffs (contrary to market expectations of exemptions), significantly hurting 2025H2-2026 demand.

- **Trump considers eliminating capital gains tax on home sales to boost housing market**. Current rules exempt up to $250,000 (double for couples) in gains, unchanged since 1997.

- **JPMorgan embraces digital assets, explores crypto-backed loans**. The bank may accept Bitcoin/Ethereum as collateral for loans as early as 2026, marking a shift for CEO Dimon, who once called Bitcoin a "fraud" but now supports users’ freedom to buy it.

- **BOJ: Elections won’t affect rate stance**. The BOJ may keep rates at 0.5% next week. Officials say PM Ishiba’s recent election losses won’t derail gradual hikes, with U.S.-Japan trade talks a key factor in delaying moves.

- **Israeli defense minister: Iran strike not ruled out**. Yoav Gallant said Israel is "very close" to military goals, with Gaza and Yemen remaining battlefields.

#### Overseas Companies

- **U.S. tech Q2 earnings ahead!** Semiconductors are the most crowded TMT trade, with Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC as top longs; software sentiment is low, with only Microsoft/Oracle expected to outperform; internet long-short ratios are neutral, with focus on AI ROI.

- **Alphabet Q2 preview: AI unlikely to dethrone search; antitrust risks, capex outlook in focus**. Analysts expect over $90 billion in revenue, with resilient search and AI-driven query growth. Citi doesn’t anticipate a hike to this year’s $75 billion capex despite GPU shortages.

- **Meta Q2 preview: ad revenue "beats expectations," AI tools work; 2026 capex to surge?** Deutsche Bank expects 1% QoQ ad growth, driven by AI-powered Advantage+. 2026 expenses may stay at $113-118 billion or rise, with savings redirected to data centers over shareholder returns.

- **Will Musk return to politics? SpaceX warns investors of risks**. SpaceX’s investor documents highlight Musk’s potential return to roles like Trump’s senior advisor, warning of time/energy demands.

- **Cash-strapped Musk seeks up to $12 billion for xAI via private equity**.

- **Coca-Cola’s price hikes pay off; Q2 operating profit surges 63%, revenue beats**. Adjusted revenue rose 2.5% to $12.62 billion, EPS $0.87. Strong zero-sugar sales and inflation-era pricing drove profit growth despite lower volumes.

- **"Alchemy" realized? Startup claims fusion can "turn mercury into gold," 5 tons per GW**. Marathon Fusion’s paper proposes neutron-induced transmutation. It estimates 5 tons of gold per GW, matching power revenue, but the gold may be radioactive for 14-18 years.

#### Industries/Concepts

1. **TDI**: Domestic plant maintenance and a 300,000-ton Covestro Germany outage tightened supply, accelerating destocking. A shift from passive to active restocking may occur, with Q4 price-volume gains possible if旺季 demand aligns with capacity.

2. **Forklifts**: Haitong Securities notes unmanned forklifts are in a 1-to-10 growth phase; undervalued domestic leaders may see revaluation.

3. **Platinum**: China Merchants Securities argues platinum’s long-term bottom and high gold-platinum ratio are boosting jewelry/investment demand. With auto demand recovery, supply rigidity, and inventory clearance, prices and consumption may enter a positive cycle.

4. **Chemicals**: Changjiang Securities identifies sub-sectors with slow capacity growth, high utilization, concentration, narrow cost gaps, and bottomed景气 as likely to avoid cutthroat competition, enabling price elasticity.

#### Today’s News Preview

- China Internet Conference.

- Humanoid Robot Precision Manufacturing Forum.

- First Shanghai International Low-Altitude Economy Expo.

- Trump speaks at "Winning the AI Race" event.

- Japan’s PM Ishiba hosts EU’s von der Leyen and Costa.

- U.S. June existing home sales.

- U.S. weekly EIA crude inventories.

- Earnings: Alphabet, Tesla, IBM.

Disclaimer: This article reflects only the author’s personal views and does not constitute investment advice. The platform makes no guarantees regarding accuracy, completeness, originality, or timeliness, nor shall it be liable for losses arising from use/reliance on the information.