This week's major schedule: US and Europe's first quarter GDP, US non-agricultural, China PMI, Buffett shareholders' meeting, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon financial report

Source: Wall Street News

A Summary of Major Financial Events in the Week from April 28th to May 4th (all in Beijing time):

In terms of major events, Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, will hold its annual general meeting of shareholders, Meta will host its first AI developers conference, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, the United States and Japan may conduct the second round of negotiations, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies and measures for stabilizing employment, stabilizing the economy, and promoting high-quality development.

In terms of data, pay attention to the GDP of the United States and the eurozone in the first quarter, the US non-farm payrolls report for April, the PCE price index for March, and China's manufacturing PMI for April. In terms of earnings reports, pay attention to Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, Kweichow Moutai, etc.

The First Quarter Economic Report Cards of the United States and Europe

The GDP data of the United States and the eurozone for the first quarter will be released on Wednesday.

The market expects that the initial value of the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter will be 0.2%, which is a significant contraction compared to 2.4% in the previous quarter and the lowest record since the third quarter of 2022. Against the backdrop of Trump's global trade war, this almost stagnant GDP data may intensify concerns about a potential recession and the risk of a possible deterioration of the job market.

The latest monthly survey of economists by Bloomberg shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the GDP growth of the United States will be below 1%, and private investment will contract. At the same time, many consumers who are increasingly worried about job security will also reduce their purchases.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its economic forecast for the United States this year (from 2.7% to 1.8%) and predicted that the probability of the United States falling into a recession this year is 40%, compared with 27% expected in October last year.

The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting

The eyes of the global investment community are about to focus on Omaha, the United States. From May 2nd to 3rd local time, the annual general meeting of shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway will be grandly held here.

This event, known as the "Spring Festival Gala of the investment world," is not only a gathering for shareholders but also an excellent opportunity for global investors to learn and communicate. During the core Q&A session on May 3rd, Warren Buffett will directly face shareholders' questions and share his profound insights into market trends, corporate operations, and investment strategies.  

The highlights of this conference lie in how Berkshire Hathaway will deploy the $318 billion in cash it currently holds, as well as the succession issue of Warren Buffett.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Drop Sharply, Unemployment Rate Likely to Remain Unchanged

The highly anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls data will be released on Friday. The market expects that the number of new nonfarm payrolls in April will drop from 228,000 in March to 130,000, possibly reaching the lowest level in four months.

Waller, a prominent Federal Reserve governor, previously stated that if the job market experiences a significant decline, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more frequently and quickly. He said that if the Trump administration reimplements aggressive tariff policies, companies may start laying off employees, and if the unemployment rate rises significantly, he will support interest rate cuts.

The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings in April is expected to increase slightly from 3.8% to 3.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the unemployment rate is one of the best indicators for warning of an economic slowdown and usually signals just one month after a recession begins. This means that if the unemployment rate this time fails to meet expectations, it will trigger the recession alarm again.

Another important data is the U.S. core PCE price index for March, which will be released on Wednesday. This is the inflation data that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to. The market expects that the year-on-year increase in the core PCE price index in March will be 2.6%, which will be the smallest increase since June last year. About a week after the release of this data, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in May, and economists expect the interest rate to remain unchanged.

The Second Round of U.S.-Japan Negotiations is About to Begin, with the Tariff Outlook Uncertain, and the Bank of Japan is Likely to Keep Its Policy Unchanged

The Bank of Japan will release its latest interest rate decision and economic outlook report on Thursday, and the market expects the Bank of Japan to keep its interest rate unchanged.

Later, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the market will focus on the Bank of Japan's views on the impact of Trump's tariff policies.

Some media reported that Ryo Akazawa, the Minister in Charge of Economic Revitalization of Japan and the chief Japanese representative in trade negotiations with the United States, is planning to visit the United States from April 30th to May 2nd to meet with officials of the Trump administration such as Bessent and conduct the second round of U.S.-Japan negotiations.

After the meeting with the U.S. Treasury Secretary this week, the Japanese Finance Minister said that the United States did not call out Japan regarding the exchange rate level and exchange rate targets. Japan was once again reported to be considering using soybeans as a bargaining chip in the negotiations in order to reach an agreement to reduce tariffs.

Meta's First Open-Source AI Conference

Meta will hold its first AI developers conference, LlamaCon, on April 29th, focusing on the development of generative artificial intelligence. It is expected that a new model, LLaMA 4 Behemoth, will be released at this conference. This model is expected to surpass GPT-4.5 and Claude Sonnet 3.7 in benchmark tests in the STEM field.

The name of the conference is derived from Meta's open-source AI model Llama series. Meta said that at the conference at the end of April, it will share the latest developments in the open-source AI field to help developers build "amazing applications and products." In the next few weeks, the company will also release more information related to LlamaCon.

Earnings Reports of U.S. Tech Giants

During the week, tech giants such as Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Spotify will successively release their earnings reports, and investors will closely monitor their supply chains and the potential tariff impacts on products imported from overseas.

According to comprehensive analysis, Amazon and Apple may be the two tech giants most severely affected by the tariff storm. Amazon will release its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Thursday. Not only may its advertising business be affected, but its market revenue, which relies heavily on Asian suppliers and retailers, will surely be severely hit by Trump's tariffs.

Apple will also release its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Thursday. Although the company may benefit in the short term due to consumers' panic buying in advance, as the tariffs are fully implemented, the dual pressures of rising supply chain costs and declining consumer purchasing power will gradually emerge.

Other Important Data, Conferences and Events

China's April PMI Data

On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the quarterly report on the production and operation of cultural and related industries above a designated size. The data shows that China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.5, compared with the previous value of 50.2. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level continued to rise, reaching the highest level in nearly a year.

Press Conference of the State Council Information Office on Policies and Measures for Stabilizing Employment, Stabilizing the Economy and Promoting High-quality Development on April 28th

The State Council Information Office is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10:00 am on April 28th, 2025 (Monday). Zhao Chenxin, Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, Yu Jiadong, Vice Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, and Zou Lan, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, will be invited to introduce the policies and measures for stabilizing employment, stabilizing the economy and promoting high-quality development and answer reporters' questions.

Regular Press Conference of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade in April

According to China.com.cn, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade is scheduled to hold a regular press conference in the auditorium of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade from 10:00 to 11:00 am on April 28th (Monday). It will release the Global Economic and Trade Friction Index for February 2025, the commercial certification data of the national Council for the Promotion of International Trade system in the first quarter of 2025, the latest preparation progress and highlights of the Third China International Supply Chain Expo, a number of policies and measures introduced by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade to stabilize foreign trade, and the upcoming Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit.

The Preparatory Meeting of the Beijing Xiangshan Forum will be Held

At the regular press conference held by the Ministry of National Defense on the afternoon of April 24th, Zhang Xiaogang, the spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense, introduced that the first "Preparatory Meeting of the Beijing Xiangshan Forum" will be held in Beijing from April 28th to 30th, with the theme of "Opportunities and Challenges Facing Global Security." More than 200 defense officials, experts, scholars, and media representatives from more than 30 countries and international organizations will attend the meeting. Through multilateral discussions and dialogues, the international participation effectiveness of the forum will be enhanced, and wisdom will be contributed to improving global security governance. During this period, bilateral and multilateral meetings, as well as cultural and technological visits, will also be arranged.

Huawei Innovation Data Infrastructure Forum

From April 28th to 29th, the Huawei 2025 Innovation Data Infrastructure Forum (IDI Forum 2025) will be held in Munich, Germany. It will discuss how to build an intelligent infrastructure for the future from aspects such as strategy, industry, and ecology.

The Eighth Digital China Construction Summit

The Eighth Digital China Construction Summit will add a sub-forum on Digital China and Intellectual Property Rights for the first time. The forum will be held at the Fuzhou Strait International Convention and Exhibition Center from April 29th to 30th.

The forum focuses on the theme of "The Future is Here: Intellectual Property Rights in the Digital Age." Centering on better promoting the development of new real productive forces and starting from supporting all-round innovation and high-quality industrial development, it will discuss the reform of the intellectual property rights system in the digital age, improve the comprehensive governance ability and level of intellectual property rights, and better assist in the construction of Digital China.

The National Standard for "Good Houses" Will be Implemented

The National Standard "Code for Residential Projects" will come into effect on May 1st. It requires that the construction of residential projects should aim at safety, comfort, greenness, and intelligence, and be regulated from five major elements including project scale, layout, function, performance, and key technical measures. The standard stipulates that the floor height of newly built residential buildings should not be lower than 3 meters, and elevators should be installed in residential buildings of the 4th floor and above; the sound insulation performance of walls and floors has been improved; the clear passage width of the main door and the bathroom door has been increased; the height of the railing at the overhanging parts such as balconies has been increased; it is required that the public mobile communication signal covers the public space and the elevator car.

The Law on Rural Collective Economic Organizations Will Come into Effect on May 1st, 2025

This law further clarifies the definition, functional positioning, rights and obligations of members, organizational structure, as well as the operation, management, income distribution of property of rural collective economic organizations. This means that China's rural collective economic organizations have entered a stage of standardized and sustainable development.

The Deadline for the Disclosure of A-share Annual Reports and First Quarter Reports

On April 30th, the disclosure of annual reports and first quarter reports of the Shanghai Stock Exchange main board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange main board, the ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange will end. The disclosure time of the first quarter reports should not be earlier than that of the previous year's annual reports.

A New Round of Price Adjustment Window for Domestic Refined Oil Products Will Open

Since 24:00 on April 17th, 2025, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel have been reduced by 480 yuan and 465 yuan per ton respectively. On average across the country, the prices of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel have been reduced by 0.38 yuan, 0.4 yuan, and 0.4 yuan per liter respectively. According to the "ten working days" principle, the next adjustment time for the retail price limit of refined oil products is 24:00 on April 30th.

Xiaohongshu Will Cancel Employees' Non-compete Agreements and the "Big and Small Weeks" Work Arrangement

On April 24th, Xiaohongshu issued a letter to all employees stating that starting from May 1st, it will no longer add new non-compete agreements in cash or options, and all existing non-compete agreements in cash and options will be lifted. It also announced that employees of Xiaohongshu can apply for the repurchase of options when leaving the company, and cancel the work arrangement on every other Saturday.

During the Labor Day Holiday, the A-share Market Will be Closed for 5 Days

From May 1st to May 5th is the Labor Day holiday, and the A-share market will be closed for 5 days.

The United States Cancels the Exemption of Small Tariffs

According to the Securities Times, the Trump administration will terminate the duty-free treatment of small packages imported from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, China to the United States since May 2nd.

Trump Imposes Tariffs on Automobile Parts Produced Outside the United States

It is reported that since May 3rd, Trump has started to impose import tariffs on automobile parts produced outside the United States.

Australian General Election

Australia will hold a federal general election on May 3rd, and early voting has started on April 22nd local time. This election will produce a new House of Representatives of the Australian Federal Parliament. Winning at least 76 seats out of 150 seats in the House of Representatives is required to obtain the right to form a government. This is a new round of direct confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition party in Australia.

Singapore General Election

The polling day for the 2025 Singaporean general election is set for May 3rd. The Parliament of Singapore is unicameral, and members of Parliament are elected by voters, with a term of office of 5 years. The political party that wins the majority of seats in Parliament can form a government. The just-dissolved Parliament was established in 2020, and its term of office is about to expire.

The Third Round of U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

According to Xinhua News Agency, a new round of talks between the United States and Iran may be held on May 3rd, and the specific location will be determined and notified to both parties by the Omani government.

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