Morning News

Source: Wall Street Journal  

**Market Overview**  
Uncertainty over tariff prospects led to mixed performance in U.S. stocks, with small-cap stocks performing relatively well, while the Dow lagged. Tesla rebounded 1.3% after a sharp decline in the previous session. Nvidia rose over 1%, closing at a record high, with its market capitalization approaching $4 trillion.  

Trump's push to tighten clean energy tax-related regulations caused solar stocks to fall, with SunRun dropping over 11%.  

U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trend from the previous day, with long-term bond yields leading the gains. The 30-year yield rose 4 basis points, while the 20-year yield surpassed the 30-year yield for the first time in nearly four years.  

Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper, causing New York copper prices to surge over 18% from their intraday low. Gold fell 1.1%, briefly dipping below $3,300.  

During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index came "within striking distance" of 3,500 points, with photovoltaics and computing power industry chains surging. The Hang Seng Index rose 1%, while Jin Yong Investment soared 530%. Polycrystalline silicon futures hit limit-up, and government bonds fell across the board.  

**Key News**  
Trump stated that reciprocal tariffs would take effect from August 1 without further delay and warned the EU that tax notices were imminent. He threatened a 50% tariff on copper and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, leading to the largest single-day gain for near-month copper contracts since 1968.  

Responses to Trump's tariffs varied: Japan and South Korea sought further negotiations, South Africa argued for lower rates, and Brazil angrily denounced the move and vowed countermeasures. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke with Japan's chief negotiator, and rumors circulated about her visiting Japan next week. Germany warned that the EU was prepared to retaliate if a fair trade deal could not be reached.  

Trump expressed strong dissatisfaction with Putin and threatened additional sanctions on Russia.  

Trump claimed that if Fed Chair Powell misled Congress about the Fed headquarters renovation project, he should resign immediately.  

The Fed reported that U.S. one-year inflation expectations for June fell to a five-month low, while concerns about layoffs eased.  

Fears of the ruling coalition's election losses reignited turmoil in Japan's long-term bonds, with the stock market also at risk.  

Zhiyuan Robotics plans to acquire 63.62% of Shanghai Weihong New Materials, potentially making it the first embodied AI company listed on the STAR Market.  

**Market Close**  
**Global Stocks**:  
- S&P 500: -0.07% at 6,225.52  
- Dow: -0.37% at 44,240.76  
- Nasdaq: +0.03% at 20,418.46  
- Europe STOXX 600: +0.41% at 545.71  

**A Shares**:  
- Shanghai Composite: +0.7% at 3,497.48  
- Shenzhen Component: +1.47% at 10,588.39  
- ChiNext: +2.39% at 2,181.08  

**Bond Markets**:  
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: +1.99 bps at 4.3992%  
- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: -0.40 bps at 3.8905%  

**Commodities**:  
- WTI August crude: +0.59% at $68.33/barrel  
- Brent September crude: +0.82% at $70.15/barrel  
- COMEX gold: -0.96% at $3,310.80/ounce

### Detailed News

#### Global Highlights

Trump said that reciprocal tariffs would be implemented from August 1 and would not be postponed again, warning that a tariff notice to the EU was on the way. Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday, postponing the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs to August 1. That night, he said that the August 1 deadline was set, but not 100% certain. On Wednesday, he said that the tariffs in some tariff notices would be 60% or 70%. Dissatisfied with the EU's taxation and fines on US tech companies, he might send a tariff notice to the EU in the next two days. He would impose a 10% tariff on India, which is a BRICS country. US Treasury Secretary Bezant said on Wednesday that the US had collected $100 billion in tariffs so far, and the tariff revenue might increase to $300 billion by the end of the year.

Trump threatened to impose a 50% copper tariff and a 200% drug tariff, and the near - month copper contract in New York had the largest increase since 1968. Trump threatened to impose a tariff of up to 200% on drugs, giving pharmaceutical companies at least one year to transfer their supply chains back to the US. He did not disclose the time and level of semiconductor tariffs. The US Commerce Secretary said that the copper tariff would take effect in late July or on August 1, and the investigations into the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors would be completed by the end of the month. The copper price in New York closed up 13%, reaching a record high.

Many countries responded to Trump's tariffs: Japan and South Korea sought to continue negotiations, South Africa argued that the tax rate could still be reduced, and Brazil angrily condemned and emphasized counter - measures. Japan and South Korea expressed “regret” over the US decision, but both expressed their willingness to solve the problem through negotiations. Thailand was surprised by the tariff rate, the South African President raised objections to the tariff calculation method, and the Brazilian President took a tough stance, criticizing the US approach as “wrong and irresponsible”, and emphasizing that if the US imposed tariffs, other countries would also take reciprocal counter - measures.

After Trump sent the tariff notice, the US Treasury Secretary had a phone call with Japan's chief negotiator, and it was rumored that he would visit Japan next week. The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that after Japan received the US tariff notice, Japanese and US officials had a frank and in - depth discussion, and Japan would continue to explore ways to reach a mutually beneficial agreement with the US. The media said that Bezant would visit Japan next week as the head of the US delegation to the World Expo, and there would be no formal bilateral talks. Japanese Prime Minister Ishibashi Shigeo said that he would quickly promote the negotiations before August 1, and according to Japan's response, the US might modify the tariff notice. Negotiator Akazawa Ryo was insisting that the trade agreement should solve the problem of US auto tariffs.

Germany warned that if a fair trade agreement could not be reached, the EU was ready to retaliate. German Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister Klingbiel emphasized that the EU was still willing to maintain an open attitude and continue negotiations, but would not accept any unequal conditions. “The agreement must be fair, and we will not compromise blindly.”

Trump said he was “very dissatisfied” with Putin and threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russia. US President Trump said on the 8th that he had approved the delivery of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and was considering further sanctions against Russia. He also said that he was “very dissatisfied” with Russian President Putin.

Trump: If Powell misled Congress on the renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters, he should resign immediately. On Tuesday, July 8, local time, US President Trump claimed at a cabinet meeting held at the White House that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell really misled Congress on the issue of the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project as critics had pointed out, he should resign immediately.

The Federal Reserve: The one - year inflation expectation in the US in June dropped to a five - month low, and the worry about layoffs was reduced. Consumers' median expectation of price increases in the next year decreased for the second consecutive month, falling from 3.2% to 3%, a five - month low. The annualized inflation expectations for the next three - year and five - year remained unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively.

Neither a Dove nor a Hawk, with Strong Judgment, Is Waller the “Best Candidate” to Succeed Powell? Waller is neither a “dove” who blindly emphasizes loose policies nor a “hawk” who advocates strong interest - rate hikes. Instead, he always follows the data and makes accurate judgments. Researchers pointed out that Waller could gain market trust and meet Trump's demand for reducing the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds, and his nomination was expected to avoid the risk of yield surges caused by the appointment of extreme candidates. Waller previously expressed his approval of starting to cut interest rates in July, and this dovish statement was regarded as a “token of allegiance” to Trump.

The market was worried about the ruling coalition's electoral defeat, and the Japanese long - term bond storm recurred. If the ruling coalition lost this time, the new government might tend to adopt larger - scale fiscal stimulus measures to boost the economy, which would further increase Japan's already high public debt burden. This worry pushed the Japanese bond yield curve steeper. The yield of Japanese 30 - year Treasury bonds rose sharply by 12.5 basis points to 3.09%, and the yield of 40 - year Treasury bonds also approached a historical high.

The Butterfly Effect Caused by a Bowl of Rice: Is the “Japanese Moment” of the Global Bond Market Coming? Societe Generale warned that there was a 50% probability that the election in Japan, which was to be held in two weeks, would trigger a government crisis. Once the political situation was turbulent, the yield of Japanese government bonds would rise sharply. In the current context of the general surge in global fiscal deficits and the high - degree linkage of long - term interest rates in various countries, if the Japanese bond market got out of control, it was very likely to trigger a global bond market crisis.

As the Japanese Senate election approaches, the prospects of the ruling party are worrying. Is the Japanese stock market in danger? The public opinion poll results of the Japanese Senate election make the prospects of the ruling coalition worrying, and some surveys even predict that it will lose its majority. Nomura analysis believes that historical data shows that the Japanese stock market often falls when the ruling party loses its majority. The most direct threat of the election results to the stock market comes from the potential reversal of corporate governance policies. In addition, the election results will also affect the process of Japan - US tariff negotiations, increasing the uncertainty of economic policies.

At a sensitive moment, the second - quarter reports of US stocks are coming. Analysts expect that the profit growth rate of US stocks in the second quarter will slow down significantly from 12% in the first quarter to 4%, providing a “low - threshold” expectation. The impact of tariffs has become the focus of market attention. If enterprises are forced to absorb the tariff costs, this will directly affect their profitability and stock price performance.

Zhi Yuan Robotics plans to acquire 63.62% of the shares of Shangwei New Materials, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board may welcome the first intelligent enterprise. Shangwei New Materials announced that Zhi Yuan Robotics planned to acquire at least 63.62% of the shares of Shangwei New Materials. The transaction consideration was determined based on the closing price of Shangwei New Materials on July 1, which was 7.78 yuan per share. According to this calculation, the market value of Shangwei New Materials was about 3.138 billion yuan. The latest valuation of Zhi Yuan Robotics reached 15 billion yuan, about 4.8 times the current market value of Shangwei New Materials. The stock of Shangwei New Materials will resume trading on July 9.

UBS answers the 10 most difficult questions in the current global market. UBS said that the US tariffs were equivalent to a 1.5% GDP tax, resulting in global growth falling to a historical low of 1.3% annualized growth rate; the US dollar depreciated cyclically, but it was not a long - term trend; the inflationary impact of tariffs would be reflected in the July CPI; the European stock market had an obvious valuation advantage relative to the US stock market, with a P/E ratio discount of 25%; central banks around the world generally shifted to loose policies to cope with the impact of tariffs; it was expected that China would further cut the policy interest rate by 20 - 30 basis points in the second half of the year.

#### Domestic Macroeconomy

Xi Jinping emphasized when inspecting Shanxi that efforts should be made to make new progress in promoting the transformation and development of the resource - based economy, and strive to write a new chapter in promoting Chinese - style modernization in the Sanjin land. Xi Jinping emphasized that on the premise of ensuring the responsibility of national thermal coal supply, the coal industry should be promoted to upgrade from low - end to high - end, and coal products should be upgraded from primary fuels to high - value - added products. At the same time, focusing on building a high - level important energy and raw material base in China, supporting the development of wind power, photovoltaic power generation, hydrogen energy and other energy sources, and building a new energy system. We should focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market and expectations, strengthen the guarantee and service of key people's livelihoods such as the elderly and children, and ensure the basic living of the needy.

#### Domestic Companies

Does Yiwu start to accept stablecoins? Is the monthly trading volume 1 billion US dollars? Most merchants “do not accept, do not understand, or have never heard of” it, and a very small number of merchants said “they can accept it, but do not do small - order business”. According to the National Business Daily, legal experts pointed out that under the current Chinese legal and financial supervision system, the conversion between the RMB and stablecoins is currently prohibited within the territory. However, if an enterprise chooses to receive stablecoins through an overseas wallet and does not intend to remit these funds back to China, “many small companies also do the same, but they can't tell you if you ask directly.”

The China Passenger Car Association: The retail sales of passenger cars in China in June were 2.084 million, reaching a monthly high, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 29.7% year - on - year. The passenger car market in China performed strongly in June, with retail, wholesale, production and export volumes all reaching historical highs. The effect of the industry's “anti - involution” was remarkable, and the inventories of passenger cars and new energy vehicles both decreased in June. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rose to 53.3% in June, thanks to the strong support of preferential policies such as scrapping and renewal, trade - in, and purchase - tax exemption.

Does TSMC continue to exceed expectations in Q2? J.P. Morgan: The orders for advanced processes are full, and the appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar may pose a profit challenge. Despite the exchange - rate pressure, J.P. Morgan believes that TSMC's leading position in the advanced process field and strong demand are still its core advantages. The migration of AI accelerators to N3P and N3X processes will keep the N3 process with extremely high capacity utilization from 2026 to 2027, and it may even be in short supply. The non - AI field is quite resilient, benefiting from the strong game cycle and AMD's continuous share increase in the PC and server markets.

#### Overseas Macroeconomy

Goldman Sachs: The target of the S&P 500 at the end of the year is 6600, driven by interest - rate cuts and fundamentals. Goldman Sachs significantly raised the target price of the S&P 500 index, expecting it to reach 6600 at the end of the year, a substantial increase compared with the previous forecast. At the same time, it raised the three - month target to 6400 and the twelve - month target to 6900. The core factors driving this optimistic outlook are two - fold: first, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts has significantly increased, and it is expected that interest - rate cuts may begin in September; second, the fundamentals of large - listed companies are continuously strong, and their profitability and growth prospects are stable.

CICC: After the “Great - looking” bill is passed, $1 trillion will be withdrawn in the third quarter, and there will be a buying opportunity for US stocks and US bonds. CICC believes that after the “Great - looking” bill is passed, the surge in US bond supply in the third quarter may withdraw $1 trillion, which will push up interest rates in the short - term and disrupt the market, but the volatility will provide re - allocation opportunities. It is judged that the US credit cycle may restart in the fourth quarter: AI investment, fiscal improvement (tariff revenue can largely offset expenditures) and the Fed's interest - rate cuts will support the economy. Therefore, the volatility can instead provide a better buying point, both for US stocks and US bonds.

Exports to the US plummeted by 7.7%, and Germany's exports in May decreased for the second consecutive month. Germany's exports in May decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, and exports to the US dropped to a low level in more than three years, highlighting the impact of tariffs on the largest economy in Europe. The President of the German Central Bank warned that due to the impact of tariffs, the largest economy in Europe was at risk of falling into recession. The EU is striving to ease the tariff pressure through trade negotiations and is seeking to lock in a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline.

The interest - rate cut failed, and the RBA unexpectedly held its fire, choosing to wait - and - see under the uncertainty of tariffs. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.85%, catching the market off - guard. 27 out of 32 economists previously predicted an interest - rate cut. The Australian dollar jumped by more than 0.7%应声, and the yield of three - year Treasury bonds rose by 5 basis points. The RBA statement emphasized that more information was needed to confirm that inflation would return to the 2.5% target, and at the same time, it was vigilant against the global uncertainty risks caused by the Trump administration's tariff policy.

Contrary to Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank: The strong fundamentals of platinum will continue until next year. Different from Goldman Sachs' pessimistic expectation, Deutsche Bank believes that under the support of a continuous four - year supply deficit and structural demand, the strong fundamentals of platinum will continue until 2026. The substitution trend from gold to platinum and the industrial inventory replenishment have laid a strong foundation for platinum's fundamentals. Based on the above - mentioned optimistic expectations, Deutsche Bank believes that the price of platinum may reach $1550 per ounce in 2026, which still has room to rise compared with its basic forecast of $1400 per ounce.

#### Overseas Companies

Samsung “exploded”, and its net profit in Q2 is expected to plummet by 56%. Samsung expects that its sales in the second quarter will be basically flat at 74 trillion won, and its operating profit will decrease by 56% year - on - year to 4.6 trillion won, exceeding the previous market - expected decline of 39%. The chip business is the main drag, and the adjustment of inventory value and the uncertainty of the trade situation have directly weakened the profit performance.

SpaceX, the space exploration company of Musk, has a valuation of about $400 billion. It is reported that SpaceX is discussing plans to raise funds and sell internal shares, and the valuation of Musk's rocket and satellite manufacturer in this transaction will reach about $400 billion. This valuation has significantly increased compared with the high of $350 billion set when SpaceX repurchased shares in December last year, and it will also rank it among the companies with the highest market value in the world.

#### Industry/Concepts

1. Semiconductor: ChangXin Memory recently completed the IPO counseling record - filing. ChangXin is the leader of the domestic DRAM industry and occupies a core position in the global DRAM industry. It has strong industrial competitiveness in the mobile phone, PC and niche consumer markets, and is vigorously expanding the enterprise - level DIMM and HBM markets. The listing of ChangXin is a key event in the development of the domestic memory industry, and this listing is fully beneficial to the upstream and downstream of the company's industrial chain.

2. Photoinitiator: Since 2025, the prices of various photoinitiator products have increased. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of July 7, 2025, the price of photoinitiator 907 is 88 yuan/kg, an increase of 27.54% compared with the beginning of the year, and the price of photoinitiator 184 is 45 yuan/kg, an increase of 32.35% compared with the beginning of the year. According to the research report of Guohai Securities, the traditional demand for photoinitiators has a recovery trend, and emerging application industries such as 3D printing materials, PCBs and photoresists are developing rapidly, and the price is expected to bottom out and rebound.

3. Liquid - cooling: Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the continuous increase of computing power and power consumption, liquid - cooling will change from an auxiliary solution to a necessary configuration for data centers. Looking further ahead, not only the server side, but also network - side equipment (such as optical modules and switch chips) can use liquid - cooling technology, and the liquid - cooling market has a huge space.

4. Huangjiu: According to the research report of Dongwu Securities, the current marginal changes in the Huangjiu industry have an industrial logic. On the one hand, the obvious transformation of the supply and demand sides of the current Huangjiu industry is similar to that of the Chinese beer industry around 2018; on the other hand, the overseas sake brand Dassai has achieved high - end transformation against the trend, which also provides a realization path for the current upgrading of the Huangjiu industry.

Preview of Today's Key News

China's June CPI and PPI.

China's June increment in social financing scale, new RMB loans, M0, M1.

Expiration of the suspension period for U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

The Bank of England releases the minutes of its financial policy meeting.

The 9th OPEC International Seminar, with the theme "Charting a Common Course: The Future of Global Energy".

Change in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the past week.

Amazon Prime Day.

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