Morning News

# Source: Wall Street Insights

## Market Overview

U.S. stocks rebounded, with the three major U.S. stock indexes reversing a two-day losing streak. TSMC's earnings boosted chip stocks, and the chip index closed nearly 2% higher. TSMC's U.S.-listed shares surged over 4% to a record high, storage chip giant SanDisk rose 5.5%, NVIDIA climbed more than 2%, and ASML's European-listed shares advanced 6%. Following the release of financial reports, Goldman Sachs closed 4.6% higher, while Morgan Stanley and BlackRock gained nearly 6%.

After the release of U.S. unemployment data, U.S. Treasury yields accelerated their rebound; the U.S. dollar index staged a sharp rally to hit a more-than-six-week high. The offshore renminbi rebounded over 100 points intraday, breaking above the 6.97 mark and hitting a 20-month high for the second consecutive day this week. Cryptocurrencies pulled back, with Bitcoin once falling more than 2% from its intraday high to breach the $96,000 level.

The metal rally paused: gold, silver, copper and tin pulled back from their intraday record highs. Gold fell over 1% intraday, spot silver plunged more than 7%, and LME tin closed nearly 3% lower. However, silver futures turned higher later to close at a fresh record high. Crude oil slumped, closing over 4% lower to log its biggest drop in nearly seven months, pulling back from a three-month closing high.

During the Asian trading session, A-share turnover shrank to below 1 trillion yuan. TSMC's substantial increase in capital expenditure lifted computing hardware stocks, while commercial aerospace stocks tumbled across the board. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped over 1%, and Trip.com plunged 20%.

## Top News

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) decided to cut the re-lending and re-discount rates by 25 basis points, stating that there remains room for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts this year.

For the full year of 2025, China's total social financing (TSF) increment exceeded 35 trillion yuan, with non-loan financing methods such as bonds accounting for over 50% of the increment, and RMB loans increasing by 16.27 trillion yuan. The central bank noted that it will keep social financing conditions relatively accommodative, guide the reasonable growth of financial aggregates, and raise the quota for technology innovation and technological transformation loans from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) announced that it will make every effort to break through reusable rocket technology in 2026.

The Trump administration has not yet imposed tariffs on critical minerals, causing the silver rally to pause. Spot silver prices once plummeted more than 7% before narrowing most of the losses.

Trump stated that although an investigation into Powell is underway, there are no plans to directly dismiss him.

The job market maintained resilience: the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week unexpectedly fell to 198,000, hitting a new low since last November; the U.S. dollar rebounded to a more-than-one-month high.

Report: Both parties in the U.S. Congress are pushing for a $2.5 billion strategic reserve plan for critical minerals.

A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is heading to the Middle East, with Trump reportedly hoping for a "quick victory". The U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions against Iran; Iran has entered the highest state of combat readiness and temporarily closed its airspace for five hours. Iranian experts stated that approximately 2,000 missiles can cover U.S. and Israeli military bases; multiple countries' flights are rerouting around Iranian airspace.

U.S. Treasury Department: Overseas investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds rebounded to a record high in November, with Japan's holdings hitting a fresh three-year high and China's holdings dropping to a new low since 2008.

Alibaba Qianwen APP Launch Event: Fully integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem businesses such as Taobao, Alipay, and Taobao Flash Sale.

Demand for AI chips remains strong: TSMC's Q4 net profit surged 35% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, with full-year 2025 capital expenditure reaching $40.9 billion. During the earnings call, TSMC noted that production capacity is extremely tight, capital expenditure will increase significantly in the next three years, and the 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been substantially raised to as much as $56 billion.

Vanke's proposal for the bondholder meeting of its 5.7 billion yuan medium-term notes was released: including four repayment plans, with a maximum of 40% of the principal to be repaid on January 28.

OpenAI is focusing on robots and AI devices, and it was reported that the company is seeking U.S. suppliers.

Goldman Sachs' Q4 net revenue fell 3% year-on-year, but its equity trading revenue set a Wall Street record, and net profit rose 12% to exceed expectations. Driven by its wealth management business, Morgan Stanley's Q4 net revenue increased 10% year-on-year, with bond underwriting revenue soaring 93%.

## Market Closing Quotes

### European and U.S. Stock Markets

- S&P 500: +0.26% to 6,944.47 points

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.60% to 49,442.44 points

- Nasdaq Composite: +0.25% to 23,530.022 points

- Europe STOXX 600 Index: +0.49% to 614.57 points, closing at a record high for two consecutive days

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: -0.33% to 4,112.60 points

- Shenzhen Component Index: +0.41% to 14,306.73 points

- ChiNext Index: +0.56% to 3,367.92 points

### Bond Market

By the end of the bond trading session, the yield on the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury note stood at approximately 4.17%, rising about 4 basis points intraday; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note was around 3.56%, climbing roughly 5 basis points during the day.

### Commodities

- WTI Crude Oil Futures (February contract): -4.56% to $59.19 per barrel

- Brent Crude Oil Futures (March contract): -4.15% to $63.76 per barrel

- COMEX Gold Futures (February contract): -0.26% to $4,623.7 per ounce

- COMEX Silver Futures (March contract): +1.05% to $92.347 per ounce

- LME Copper Futures: -about 0.6% to $13,106 per ton

- LME Tin Futures: -nearly 2.7% to $52,031 per ton

# Key News Details

## Global Highlights

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) decided to cut the re-lending and re-discount rates. Starting from January 19, 2026, the re-lending and re-discount rates will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points. After the adjustment, the 3-month, 6-month and 1-year re-lending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses will be 0.95%, 1.15% and 1.25% respectively; the re-discount rate will stand at 1.5%; the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) rate will be 1.75%; and the interest rate for special structural monetary policy tools will be set at 1.25%.

The PBOC stated that it cut the interest rates of monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, and there remains room for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts this year. The interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools have been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, the 1-year interest rate of all types of re-lending has been lowered to 1.25%, and the interest rates of other tenors have been adjusted in tandem. Meanwhile, the PBOC, together with the National Financial Regulatory Administration, will lower the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%. Zou Lan emphasized that from the perspective of this year, there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. In terms of the statutory deposit reserve ratio, the current average statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 6.3%, leaving room for further RRR cuts.

For the full year of 2025, China's aggregate social financing (ASF) increment exceeded 35 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan. According to Xinhua News Agency, financial statistics released by the PBOC on January 15 showed that the cumulative increment of ASF in 2025 reached 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan over the previous year. At the end of December 2025, the balance of broad money supply (M2) stood at 340.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; the balance of RMB loans totaled 271.91 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year. The moderately accommodative monetary policy has taken effect, strongly supporting the steady growth of the real economy.

The PBOC noted that non-loan financing methods such as bonds accounted for over 50% of the ASF increment, marking remarkable results in the supply-side structural reform of the financial sector. Zou Lan, Vice Governor of the PBOC, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 15th that in the ASF increment of 2025, non-loan financing methods including bonds accounted for more than 50%, demonstrating the remarkable effectiveness of the supply-side structural reform in the financial industry.

The PBOC announced the merger and establishment of a risk-sharing tool for science and technology innovation and private enterprise bonds. Zou Lan said that the risk-sharing tool for science and technology innovation and private enterprise bonds will be established through merger, integrating the previously set up private enterprise bond financing support tool and science and technology innovation bond risk-sharing tool under unified management, with a total re-lending quota of 200 billion yuan provided.

The PBOC emphasized maintaining relatively accommodative social financing conditions and guiding the reasonable growth of financial aggregates. Zou Lan indicated that based on the domestic and international economic and financial situation as well as the operation of the financial market, the PBOC will take promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices as important considerations for monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools including RRR and interest rate cuts, maintain ample liquidity, keep social financing conditions relatively accommodative, and guide the reasonable growth of financial aggregates and the balanced supply of credit. It will give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy in terms of aggregate and structure, accelerate the implementation of a series of recently launched structural monetary policy tools, and guide financial institutions to increase support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, scientific and technological innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

The PBOC raised the quota for science and technology innovation and technological transformation loans from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan. Zou Lan stated that the re-lending quota for science and technology innovation and technological transformation will be increased and the scope of support expanded, raising the quota from 800 billion yuan by an additional 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, and including private MSMEs with high R&D investment levels into the scope of support.

The Hyperbola-1(S) Y7 carrier rocket was successfully launched. This mission marked the 23rd flight of the Hyperbola-1 carrier rocket.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) announced that it will make every effort to break through reusable rocket technology in 2026. At its 2026 annual work conference held in Beijing on Thursday, CASC outlined several key tasks for the year, including coordinating the implementation of major aerospace projects and industrial transformation, advancing major projects such as manned lunar landing and deep-space exploration in depth, making every effort to break through reusable rocket technology, and accelerating the building of a strong aerospace nation.

The silver rally paused as the Trump administration decided not to impose tariffs on critical minerals for the time being, with spot silver prices once plunging more than 7%. The Trump administration opted not to impose comprehensive tariffs on critical minerals including silver and platinum for the time being, instead seeking bilateral negotiations and considering setting price floors. This decision significantly eased market concerns about the U.S. imposing comprehensive tariff measures. Wall Street is optimistic about the medium-term outlook for silver, believing that supply gaps, industrial consumption and spillover demand from gold will continue to support silver prices, while warning of short-term risks.

Trump stated that although an investigation into Powell is underway, there are no plans to directly dismiss him. Trump said he has no immediate plans to directly remove Powell, but remains cautious about him, and emphasized that the president should have a say in central bank policies. Meanwhile, the selection of a successor has accelerated, with two "Kevins" being favored, and the debate over the independence of the Federal Reserve is entering a deeper stage.

The job market maintained resilience: the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week unexpectedly fell to 198,000, hitting a new low since last November. The weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. have remained below the key 200,000 level for several consecutive weeks, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two-year low. Although many large enterprises have announced layoff plans, actual data does not indicate a widespread wave of layoffs, and the number of continuing claims has also remained at a low level of 1.884 million, suggesting that the stable pattern of "slowing recruitment but no increase in layoffs" in the job market continues.

Report: Both parties in the U.S. Congress are pushing for a $2.5 billion strategic reserve plan for critical minerals. The new bill will establish a critical minerals trading center, operating in a model between the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the Federal Reserve: physically, it will build storage facilities similar to the SPR; in terms of governance, it will set up a supervisory committee similar to the Federal Reserve, responsible for overseeing the reserve and release of critical materials.

The Pentagon deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, and Iran announced the temporary closure of its airspace. According to Huanqiu.com, NewsNation reported that the Pentagon is redeploying an aircraft carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the area of responsibility of the U.S. Central Command, which includes the Middle East region, with the deployment expected to take a week. RIA Novosti reported that a U.S. military reconnaissance plane approached the Iranian border. Iran announced the temporary closure of its airspace. According to CCTV, Iran temporarily closed its airspace starting at 6:15 Beijing time on Thursday. Later media reports stated that Iran's airspace reopened after being closed for nearly five hours.

A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is heading to the Middle East, with Trump reportedly hoping for a "quick victory"; Iran has entered the highest state of combat readiness, and Iranian experts stated that approximately 2,000 missiles can cover U.S. and Israeli military bases; multiple countries' flights are rerouting around Iranian airspace. According to Xinhua News Agency citing media reports on Wednesday the 14th, Trump told his national security team that he hopes any military action against Iran will be a "quick, decisive strike" rather than a prolonged war lasting weeks or months.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced the imposition of new sanctions against Iran. According to Xinhua News Agency, sanctions have been imposed on multiple individuals and entities in Iran as well as several foreign companies associated with Iran. The sanctioned parties include Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The U.S. Treasury Department's updated sanctions list against Iran added 11 individuals and 13 entities.

U.S. Treasury Department: Overseas investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds rebounded to a record high in November, with Japan's holdings hitting a fresh three-year high and China's holdings dropping to a new low since 2008. Data from the U.S. Treasury Department showed that overseas holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds increased by $112.8 billion month-on-month to $9.36 trillion in November, rebounding after two consecutive months of decline; among the top ten overseas "creditors" of the U.S., Japan, which holds the largest total amount, increased its holdings by $26 billion month-on-month to $1.2026 trillion, marking 11 consecutive months of increases; China's holdings fell for three consecutive months to $682.6 billion.

Alibaba Qianwen APP Launch Event: Fully integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem businesses such as Taobao, Alipay and Taobao Flash Sale. Alibaba held a launch event for its Qianwen App on Thursday, announcing full integration with ecological scenarios including Taobao, Alipay, Fliggy and Amap. The core of this update is system-level integration. The Qianwen App has achieved in-depth integration with Taobao Flash Sale and Alipay's "AI Payment", allowing users to complete the entire process from decision-making to payment within the dialogue interface without jumping to other apps, subject to authorization.

Alibaba enters the AI Agent era, with Qianwen enabling functions such as ticket booking and food ordering. The new version of Alibaba's Qwen is integrated with ecological applications, realizing the transition from questioning to action. Evaluations show that the API call interaction for food ordering is smoother, but requires application integration. Currently, the Taobao shopping function has not been implemented yet.

Demand for AI chips remains strong: TSMC's Q4 net profit surged 35% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, with full-year 2025 capital expenditure reaching $40.9 billion. During the earnings call, TSMC noted that production capacity is extremely tight, and capital expenditure will increase significantly in the next three years.

TSMC's Q4 net profit increased by 35% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, with gross profit margin soaring to 62.3%. AI demand has boosted its HPC (High Performance Computing) business, and the revenue share of 3nm/5nm processes is approaching 70%, consolidating its position as the global foundry leader. Although the smartphone business faces concerns about a shortage of memory chips, the super profitability driven by the AI boom has excited the market. TSMC's U.S.-listed shares rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading.

C.C. Wei, CEO of TSMC, stated that such a huge investment would be a disaster for TSMC if not handled carefully. "So over the past few months, I have spent a lot of time communicating with customers and their customers", emphasizing the need to confirm that the demand is real, and "the answer has been quite satisfactory."

Wall Street's comments on TSMC's earnings report: The capital expenditure and profit margin guidance are overly "astonishing", and anyone hoping for a pullback will be disappointed. TSMC's Q4 gross profit margin exceeded 60% for the first time, net profit exceeded expectations, and it substantially raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, far exceeding market estimates. The company also raised its long-term gross profit margin and revenue growth targets, clearly betting on the sustained explosion of AI demand. Goldman Sachs analysts bluntly stated that "anyone hoping for a pullback will be disappointed". The Wall Street consensus is that TSMC has completely broken its conservative image as an AI production capacity bottleneck through its far-expected capital expenditure and profit margin guidance, demonstrating absolute confidence in the long-term demand of the industry.

Vanke's proposal for the bondholder meeting of its 5.7 billion yuan medium-term notes was released: including four repayment plans, with a maximum of 40% of the principal to be repaid on January 28. According to The Paper, for two tranches of Vanke's medium-term notes totaling 5.7 billion yuan due soon, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Bank of Communications, acting as conveners respectively, issued bondholder meeting proposals, putting forward four plans including extending the principal repayment to the end of 2026 and prepaying up to 40% of the principal, with Vanke providing accounts receivable of project companies as collateral for credit enhancement. All proposals require the approval of more than 90% of the voting rights to take effect.

OpenAI is focusing on robots and AI devices, and it was reported that the company is seeking U.S. suppliers. Reports indicated that OpenAI has issued a Request for Proposal (RFP) to hardware manufacturers based in the U.S., covering components such as chips, motors, packaging materials and data center cooling equipment. OpenAI's Chief Global Affairs Officer compared AI to a catalyst for the U.S.'s "re-industrialization", stating that the company believes the development speed of the robot industry will exceed some people's expectations.

Goldman Sachs' Q4 net revenue fell 3% year-on-year, but its equity trading revenue set a Wall Street record, and net profit rose 12% to exceed expectations. Goldman Sachs achieved a net profit of $4.617 billion in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and revealed a milestone achievement—its equity trading business recorded a single-quarter revenue of $4.31 billion, setting a new all-time high on Wall Street. The transfer of the Apple credit card business caused Goldman Sachs' Platform Solutions business to record a net negative revenue of $1.676 billion in the fourth quarter, thereby dragging down the overall net revenue decline. Excluding this impact, Goldman Sachs' performance in the fourth quarter was actually stronger.

Driven by its wealth management business, Morgan Stanley's Q4 net revenue increased 10% year-on-year, with bond underwriting revenue soaring 93%. Morgan Stanley's Q4 net revenue in 2025 reached $17.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%; debt underwriting revenue surged 93%, mainly driven by tens of billions of dollars in financing for AI data centers such as Meta. The wealth management business attracted $122.3 billion in a single quarter, with total assets under management reaching $9.3 trillion. Although the fixed income business edged down slightly, the full-year net profit still hit a record high.

Is a shale oil mega-merger on the way? Coterra is considering merging with Devon Energy, with its stock price once rising more than 10%. According to reports, Coterra Energy and Devon Energy are negotiating the terms and structure of a potential merger, with one option being an all-stock transaction. Both companies own substantial oil and gas assets in the Permian Basin, and the merged entity will be better positioned to compete with giants such as Exxon Mobil.

## Selected Research Reports

Goldman Sachs: The U.S. dollar is still overvalued by about 15% in 2026, and the revaluation of tech "exceptionalism" is a major downside risk. In its 2026 foreign exchange outlook, Goldman Sachs pointed out that U.S. dollar hegemony is experiencing a "slow ebb" but will not collapse immediately, and its downward trend will be driven by the convergence of global growth. The report specifically warned that the biggest tail risk comes from structural changes: if the belief in U.S. tech stock "exceptionalism" wavers (such as encountering disruptive technological iteration), leading to a reversal of capital inflows, the U.S. dollar may face a sharp depreciation far exceeding expectations.

Bernstein raised SanDisk's target price by 93% to $580: AI is creating an unprecedented storage super cycle. Wall Street's focus on AI hardware is shifting from computing power to storage. Bernstein sharply raised SanDisk's target price, believing that the demand for long-context AI will drive a surge in NAND demand, ushering in a storage super cycle. However, JPMorgan holds a conservative view, arguing that the current high prices are a cyclical phenomenon and may return to normal after capacity expansion.

Citi's latest commodity outlook: "Tactically bullish" on crude oil and precious metals, "structurally bullish" on aluminum, and copper prices "may peak within a month". Citi's research report pointed out that the commodity market is at a turning point. Crude oil is expected to hit $70 in the short term driven by geopolitics, but faces long-term oversupply pressure. Precious metals are bullish, with silver targeting $100 and gold $5,000. Among industrial metals, aluminum has the greatest potential due to supply shortages, with a target of $3,400-$3,500. Although copper prices are expected to reach $14,000, January may be the annual high.

This round of "lithium price bull market" is different from history. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the lithium market is entering a new rational cycle. The core driving force of this round of price increases has shifted from policy-driven in the past to rigid energy storage demand driven by AI and data centers. Coupled with improved market tools and disciplined production capacity in China, it means that lithium prices are breaking away from previous irrational fluctuations and entering a new stage with stronger fundamentals and resilience.

The prelude to Japanese yen intervention has emerged, and the market may face a "surprise" action, with close attention on "rate checks". Nomura warned that the rules of the game for the Japanese Ministry of Finance's yen intervention are changing. On Wednesday during the UK trading session, the USD/JPY suddenly fell without any obvious positive news, which is highly likely to be a "rate check" conducted by the Ministry of Finance. This informal inquiry is often a prelude to actual intervention.

Deutsche Bank: The cost of space data centers will match that of ground-based ones by 2030. Deutsche Bank believes that although the current cost of space deployment is high, this gap is narrowing at an astonishing rate. With the sharp drop in launch costs and the optimization of satellite design, the cost of building a space data center will converge with that of ground-based construction within the next decade. This means that the energy and heat dissipation bottlenecks plaguing ground-based data centers may find an ultimate solution in space.

# Domestic Macro

Qiushi Journal published an important article by the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee titled "Speech at the Central Urban Work Conference". According to Xinhua News Agency, the speech proposes to strive to build livable cities with comfort and convenience. It advocates integrated planning of population, industries, urbanization and transportation, optimizing urban spatial structure and improving transportation infrastructure systems. It also calls for accelerating the establishment of a new model for real estate development to better meet people's rigid and diverse housing improvement needs, and steadily advancing the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated buildings. Efforts will be made to vigorously develop consumer services such as health care and housekeeping, improve the elderly care service system, strengthen forward-looking layout of educational resources, and implement the project to consolidate the foundation of medical and health care services.

Li Qiang held talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. According to Xinhua News Agency, China is willing to strengthen the alignment of development strategies with Canada, continue to resume and promote exchanges in various fields and at all levels, make good use of the intergovernmental dialogue mechanisms on economy, trade, science and technology, agriculture and other areas between the two countries, promote the stable growth of bilateral trade, improve the level of trade facilitation, deepen cooperation in clean energy, digital technology, modern agriculture, aerospace, advanced manufacturing, finance and other fields, and cultivate more new economic growth drivers.

National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA): Promote the risk resolution of small and medium-sized financial institutions in a strong, orderly and effective manner. The meeting put forward five requirements: First, vigorously, orderly and effectively advance the risk resolution of small and medium-sized financial institutions, focus on addressing stock risks, resolutely curb incremental risks, and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing "risk outbreaks". Second, closely guard against and resolve risks in related fields, promote the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and help establish a new model for real estate development. Third, gradually form an atmosphere of strong and strict supervision. Fourth, adopt comprehensive measures to guide the reform and transformation of the industry. Fifth, accurately and effectively support the steady improvement of the economy.

Yao Qian, former Director of the Science and Technology Supervision Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), engaged in serious power-for-money transactions, accepting 2,000 Ether coins in one go. According to Shanghai Securities News and CCTV News, Yao Qian, former Director of the Science and Technology Supervision Department of the CSRC and former Director of the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China, engaged in rampant power-for-money transactions, receiving 2,000 Ether coins at one time (with a maximum market value exceeding 60 million yuan). He covered up the corruption through hardware wallets and "nominee accounts". However, virtual currencies eventually need to be cashed out. The task force used blockchain technology to penetrate through layers of obfuscation and locked in irrefutable evidence during the house purchase process.

Broad-based ETFs witnessed a trading spree, with the trading volume of CSI 500 hitting a record high, and CSI 300 and A500 also seeing extremely heavy trading volumes. The combined trading volume of the top three broad-based ETFs exceeded 66.8 billion yuan.

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# Domestic Companies

A silver merchant in Shuibei went bankrupt, causing multiple merchants to suffer losses ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan, and the police have intervened. According to National Business Daily, the bankrupt merchant was "Hecheng Hang" Shuibei Silver Building. Many affected merchants have reported the case to the police, and the number of people in the rights protection group has exceeded 350. Many netizens said that the silver building suddenly closed down, and many merchants who purchased precious metal ingots there failed to receive their goods. Several affected merchants revealed that the rumors of the owner "fleeing" were untrue; the owner did not run away but indeed could not deliver the money or goods.

China's first 100-billion-yuan gold ETF was born! As the international gold price exceeded $4,600 per ounce, Huaan Gold ETF's scale surpassed 100 billion yuan, becoming China's first gold ETF with a scale of over 100 billion yuan, indicating that investors are actively allocating gold through ETFs. Institutions generally believe that under the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks and the de-dollarization trend, the medium and long-term upward logic for gold prices remains solid, but short-term volatility has intensified. They suggest that investors deploy on dips from an allocation perspective.

Signals of Moutai's pricing reform! Goldman Sachs: The liquor industry will accelerate price clearing and is expected to bottom out and rebound in the second half of the year. Moutai has recently accelerated the promotion of direct sales and pricing reforms, with the iMoutai platform officially launching Feitian series products and adjusting the prices of non-standard products. Goldman Sachs believes that this move marks a bottoming-out signal for the liquor industry, which will accelerate inventory destocking and price normalization. Although demand remains weak and financial pressure persists in the short term, the industry is expected to usher in a recovery in the second half of 2026.

CATL's counterattack frustrated? Rongbai Technology's over 120 billion yuan large order under inquiry; where is the "great game" of LFP lithium going. CATL recently signed a huge procurement agreement of over 120 billion yuan with Rongbai Technology. However, the agreement immediately triggered an inquiry from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its performance capacity, as its current production capacity is only 60,000 tons, far lower than the committed annual delivery volume of 500,000 tons. Although Rongbai Technology claims that its one-step new process has cost advantages, the maturity and mass production feasibility of its technology are still questioned.

What does the anti-monopoly investigation mean for Ctrip? Institutions such as UBS and JPMorgan Chase analyzed that, referring to the precedents of Alibaba and Meituan, this investigation may last 4-6 months, and the fine amount is expected to be in the range of 3%-4% of the previous year's sales. Ctrip's stock price may fall into a long-term sideways trend and valuation suppression in the next 4-6 months. In terms of business model, the core "pricing tools" are facing rectification, which may lead to stronger bargaining power of suppliers, a decline in platform monetization rate and a slowdown in advertising revenue growth.

Affected by price fluctuations in the live pig market, Muyuan Foods expects its 2025 net profit to decrease by 14.93%-20.21% year-on-year.

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# Overseas Macro

A senior central bank journalist stated that to win the election, Trump will use "three major levers" to stimulate the economy, which is "highly likely to succeed" this year. However, Tesla will cancel the one-time purchase option starting from February 14 and fully switch to a monthly subscription model. This move aims to lower the threshold for use, increase penetration rate and form recurring revenue. It is also interpreted by the outside world as Tesla's way to avoid legal and financial risks related to the difficulty of realizing "Full Self-Driving" in the short term, as well as a redefinition of its long-term asset value.

Elon Musk: The launch frequency of Starship will exceed once per hour within three years. Through social media, Elon Musk stated that the launch frequency of Starship will exceed once per hour within three years, clarifying that SpaceX's ultimate goal is to produce 10,000 Starships per year.

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# Industry/Concepts

1.  Semiconductors | On the afternoon of January 15, TSMC, the global leader in wafer foundry, released its Q4 2025 financial report. Its revenue reached $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9%, with a gross profit margin rising to 62.3%. The performance growth was mainly driven by the strong demand for high-end chips brought by the wave of AI computing power construction. The company expects its 2026 capital expenditure to reach as high as $52-56 billion, both exceeding market expectations.

Research institutions believe that TSMC's performance confirms the authenticity of industry demand, and the tight supply-demand situation will continue until 2028-2029. Moreover, downstream customers have sound financial conditions and strong payment capabilities. The strong and better-than-expected capital expenditure plan strongly endorses the future demand for AI computing power, and the wave of large-scale AI infrastructure construction is in the ascendant. The semiconductor industry chain embraces development opportunities.

2.  Tungsten (Non-ferrous Metals) | On January 15, public data showed that the prices of domestic tungsten series products rose. Among them, the prices of wolframite concentrate, scheelite concentrate, ferrotungsten and ammonium paratungstate increased by 5,000 yuan/ton, 5,000 yuan/ton, 10,000 yuan/ton and 10,000 yuan/ton respectively. Research institutions believe that the growth rate of global supply is limited, while emerging industries and the growing demand for security are driving the growth of demand.

3.  Commercial Aerospace | According to China News Service, on January 15, it was learned from the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone that the Beijing Rocket Street Project successfully completed the completion filing and officially entered the delivery and commissioning stage, which will become China's first common scientific research and production base for commercial aerospace. In the future, it can provide more than ten shared services such as satellite and rocket R&D, testing, intelligent manufacturing, space-air-ground integrated operation and control, industrial incubation and public services, meeting the development needs of the entire commercial aerospace industry chain. Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that the resonance between China and the United States is driving the commercial aerospace industry upward.

4.  Power Grid Equipment | According to China News Service, State Grid's 15th Five-Year Plan investment plan was released: during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, State Grid Corporation's fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, an increase of 40% compared with the 14th Five-Year Plan investment. It will focus on green transformation, building a new power system, and strengthening technological empowerment. Analysts believe that State Grid's 15th Five-Year fixed asset investment plan is highly forward-looking and strategic, not only significantly increasing in total amount, but also fully oriented towards green low-carbon, new power system construction and an independent and controllable industrial security system, focusing on UHV, smart grid, digital intelligence, energy storage and efficient management.

5.  Carbon Fiber | According to Guangming Net, a scientific research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, together with relevant units, has developed a domestic T1000-grade high-performance carbon fiber, which is the super-strong material with application performance closest to "Flying Blade" in reality. Each strand of this domestic T1000-grade high-performance carbon fiber contains 12,000 filaments, with a filament diameter of less than one-tenth of a human hair but extremely strong. A 1-meter-long carbon fiber weighs only 0.5 grams, with a tensile strength exceeding 6,600 MPa, capable of pulling about 200 kilograms without breaking, which is 7-8 times that of steel materials. This breakthrough marks the leap of domestic carbon fiber from T300 to T1000, solving the "bottleneck" problem of high-end materials and injecting strong momentum into the upgrading of high-end manufacturing during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

6.  GaN Power Products | According to IT Home, global semiconductor manufacturer onsemi recently announced that it has signed a cooperation agreement with GlobalFoundries. Based on GlobalFoundries' most advanced 200mm enhanced silicon-based GaN process, the two parties will jointly develop and manufacture advanced GaN power products, starting with 650V devices.

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# Today's News Preview

- Germany's December CPI.

- U.S. December industrial output and manufacturing output.

- U.S. January NAHB Housing Market Index.

- Speeches by Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson.

- 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference.

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# Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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