This week’s big agenda: U.S. inflation, China’s foreign trade data, the U.S. stock earnings season has officially begun, and the U.S. High Court’s tariff ruling will be released

# Source: Wall Street Insights

By Long Yue

U.S. CPI & PPI and China's import & export data will be released, and the Federal Reserve is set to publish its latest Beige Book. On the earnings front, TSMC's results will directly verify global AI demand, while the U.S. stock earnings season kicks off, led by JPMorgan Chase among financial stocks. In terms of events, the U.S. Supreme Court may announce its tariff ruling next Wednesday; meanwhile, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown looms again, requiring close attention to developments next week. Additionally, the G7 meeting will discuss rare earths, China's nuclear fusion, and the AIGC conference will be held.

## Key Financial Events Preview (January 12–January 18, All Times in Beijing Time)

This week, global capital markets will enter a "super week", where the dual tests of macroeconomic data and micro corporate earnings will significantly intensify market volatility. It is necessary to be alert to marginal changes in the following three core logic lines:

First, the game between inflation uncertainty and policy expectations. The U.S. December CPI, to be released next Tuesday, is expected to rebound significantly. Institutions generally attribute this to a "technical distortion" caused by the government shutdown. Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court has postponed its ruling on the Trump tariff case, with the next ruling scheduled for January 14. China will also release its latest import and export data.

Second, the "critical leap" of earnings verification. Earnings reports from major Wall Street banks will reveal the health of the financial system in a high-interest-rate environment, while TSMC's earnings report on Thursday serves as a "bellwether" for the global AI industry chain. Amid the volatile trading of giants like NVIDIA at high levels, TSMC's guidance on advanced manufacturing processes will determine whether tech stocks have new upward momentum.

Third, geopolitics and industrial dynamics. The U.S. government appropriations bill has entered a critical stage of review in the Senate. The risk of a shutdown will not only affect market sentiment but also may substantially drag down the economy. Coupled with the G7's rare earth discussions, the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, and the holding of industrial conferences such as China's nuclear fusion and AIGC events, geopolitical games and industrial catalysts coexist.

### Economic Indicators

#### China's December Import & Export Data

China will release its December import and export data on Wednesday, January 14. CICC (China International Capital Corporation) believes that the fluctuations in export growth rate year-on-year in the past few months can be largely attributed to base effects. The base figure for December is higher than that for November, which may cause the year-on-year export growth rate in December to decline from November's level. It is estimated that exports will grow by 3.0% year-on-year in December, compared with 5.9% in November; imports will decrease by 2.9% year-on-year, versus a 1.9% drop in November.

#### U.S. December CPI, November PPI and Retail Sales Data

The U.S. will release December CPI data on Tuesday, January 13. Institutions widely expect core CPI to rebound significantly month-on-month. Morgan Stanley forecasts it at 0.36%, and Bloomberg Economics Research predicts 0.38%, both far higher than the average of 0.08% in October–November.

Analysts believe that this rebound is mainly due to statistical distortions during the U.S. government shutdown, rather than a rise in real inflationary pressures. The market is likely to regard it as a one-off technical factor and "discount" its impact.

Following the CPI release, two key U.S. economic data will also be published: PPI for October and November, and retail sales for November.

The market expects that the month-on-month growth rate of core PPI for these two months may remain at a relatively moderate level. The main focus is that as a key indicator measuring upstream inflationary pressures, the PPI data will verify whether price pressures on the cost side continue to ease, and provide an important calculation basis for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for the same period, which will be released at the end of the month. In addition, Bloomberg expects that after a flat reading in October, overall retail sales in November will rebound by 0.7% month-on-month, mainly driven by the modest recovery in auto sales from the sharp drop caused by the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, as well as the continued strength of online transactions during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

#### Federal Reserve Releases the "Beige Book" on Economic Conditions

The Federal Reserve will publish its latest Beige Book survey on regional economic conditions on Wednesday, January 14.

The November 2025 Beige Book indicated that the government shutdown and the application of AI led to a weak job market, while rising tariffs and medical insurance costs pushed up corporate expenses, which may exacerbate inflation concerns. The K-shaped divergence among consumers has intensified: high-income consumers maintained resilient spending, but middle- and low-income households are "tightening their belts".

### Earnings Reports

#### TSMC

TSMC will release its Q4 2025 earnings report before the U.S. stock market opens on Thursday, January 15. The market generally expects the company's quarterly revenue to be approximately NT$1.011 trillion, with earnings per share reaching NT$2.72. The main focus is whether the company can deliver on its growth narrative as a core foundry for AI chips, especially the strong demand for advanced manufacturing processes from customers such as NVIDIA. Many investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Barclays have raised the company's target price and maintained an "Overweight" rating.

#### JPMorgan Chase Kicks Off the Earnings Season for Major U.S. Banks

JPMorgan Chase kicks off the quarterly earnings season for major U.S. banks. Following recent interest rate cuts, the balance sheet has become the focus of attention. During the week of January 12, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, Goldman Sachs Group, HCL Technologies, Infosys, JPMorgan Chase, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group, Qatar National Bank, State Street Corporation, TSMC, Tata Consultancy Services, Wells Fargo and others will release their earnings reports.

#### GigaDevice Semiconductor Hong Kong IPO, Shares Expected to Start Trading on January 13

GigaDevice Semiconductor has filed for a Hong Kong IPO, seeking to issue 28.9 million shares, with the top end of the offering price guidance range set at HK$162 per share. The shares are expected to be priced on January 9 and start trading on January 13.

#### OmniVision Hong Kong IPO, Shares Expected to Be Priced on January 8 and Start Trading on January 12

OmniVision has applied for a Hong Kong IPO, planning to issue 45.8 million shares, with the top end of the offering price guidance range at HK$104.80 per share. The shares are expected to be priced on January 8 and start trading on January 12.

### Financial Events

#### U.S. Supreme Court Postpones Ruling on Trump Tariff Case, Next Ruling on January 14

According to CCTV News, on January 9 local time, the U.S. Supreme Court stated that it would not issue a ruling on the Trump administration's tariff case on that day. After taking office in 2025, the Trump administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to introduce a series of tariff increase measures through executive orders without congressional approval. The U.S. Supreme Court previously announced that it would rule on the legality of the tariff policy on January 9 this month.

The U.S. Supreme Court completed its work of disclosing opinions on Friday but did not announce the ruling on the Trump tariff case. There were previous speculations that the ruling might be released on Friday, but no decision has been made yet, and the specific timing for the release of the final ruling remains unclear. The U.S. Supreme Court stated that next Wednesday, January 14, will be its next date to announce rulings.

#### Risk of Another U.S. Government Shutdown at the End of the Month Rises; Relevant Appropriations Bill to Be Submitted to Senate for Review Next Week

U.S. government funding is set to run out again, increasing the risk of another shutdown at the end of the month. To avoid a government shutdown after January 30, the U.S. Congress is accelerating the advancement of appropriation legislation. According to CCTV News, the House of Representatives has passed three appropriations bills, which will enter the Senate review stage next week. This process has become the focus of market attention, and its progress will directly determine the level of shutdown risk at the end of the month. If the Senate can pass the bills quickly, it will effectively stabilize market sentiment.

Specifically, the three passed appropriations bills are part of a spending package known as a "minibus", which will provide funding for the Department of Energy, Department of Commerce, Department of Justice, as well as water projects, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and federal scientific research projects, covering the period until the end of the current fiscal year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the appropriation package may be reviewed as early as next week.

Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Charles Schwab, said: "The timeline is very tight, and a shutdown cannot be ruled out, but congressional negotiations to avoid a shutdown seem to be making progress."

#### Canadian Prime Minister to Visit China from January 13 to 17; German Chancellor to Visit India

According to Huanqiu.com citing foreign media reports, the Canadian Prime Minister's Office announced on January 7 local time that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China from January 13 to 17. The report stated that this visit is the first by a Canadian Prime Minister to China since December 2017. The Canadian Prime Minister's Office said that during his visit, Carney will discuss issues such as trade, energy, agriculture and international security with the Chinese side.

In addition, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is visiting India until January 13. He plans to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and business leaders.

#### Trump: Venezuelan Opposition Leader Machado May Visit the U.S. Next Week

According to the Global Times, Trump revealed that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado may visit the U.S. next week, and he expects to meet with her. "As far as I know, she will visit on a certain day next week, and I look forward to meeting her," Trump said in an exclusive interview with Fox News broadcast on the evening of January 8. "And I also heard that she herself is willing to come."

#### Multiple Fed Officials Including Williams to Speak Densely Ahead of Month-End Rate Meeting

Federal Reserve officials will deliver a series of speeches next week. Permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President John Williams, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Ali Mokdad, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, among others, will address the public.

#### G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting to Discuss Rare Earth Issues

On January 12, G7 finance ministers will meet in Washington to discuss rare earth issues.

#### 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference to Be Held from January 16 to 17

The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference will be held in Hefei, Anhui from January 16 to 17. Co-hosted by the Anhui Nuclear Fusion Industry Federation, Fusion New Energy (Anhui) Co., Ltd., Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Energy Research Institute of Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center, and Keda Silicon Valley Service Platform (Anhui) Co., Ltd., it is one of the highest-standard and most influential science and technology and industry events in the field of nuclear fusion energy in 2026.

From the perspective of the industrial cycle, it is expected that controlled nuclear fusion will gradually enter a capital expenditure expansion cycle from 2025 to 2028, and the next 3–5 years will be a peak period for bidding and tendering of nuclear fusion projects. Statistics show that the expected investment in major domestic nuclear fusion projects will reach 146.5 billion yuan.

#### 5th AIGC China Developer Conference, 2nd China eVTOL Innovation and Development Conference Held; Detroit Auto Show Opens

The 5th AIGC China Developer Conference will be held in Beijing on January 17. The 2nd China eVTOL Innovation and Development Conference will take place in Shanghai from January 15 to 16. The Detroit Auto Show opens and runs until January 25.

#### China's First Basic Law in the Nuclear Energy Field, the Atomic Energy Law, to Come into Force on January 15

China's nuclear energy sector ushers in its first basic and comprehensive law. On September 12, the Atomic Energy Law of the People's Republic of China (hereinafter referred to as the Atomic Energy Law) was adopted at the 17th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China, promulgated, and will come into force on January 15, 2026.

#### Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Price Limit for Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts Adjusted to 16%

Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on January 13, 2026, the price limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be adjusted to 16%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 18%. If there is a discrepancy between the above price limit and trading margin standard and the currently implemented ones, the more stringent one (wider price limit range, higher margin standard) shall prevail.

#### EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Report to Be Released on January 13

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report on January 13. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Energy's STEO report maintained its 2025 WTI crude oil price forecast at slightly below $69 per barrel and its 2026 forecast at around $55 per barrel.

#### 5th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to Be Held from January 12 to 14

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee recently held a meeting, agreeing to convene the 5th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection from January 12 to 14 next year.

#### Launch of the 6th Batch of National Centralized Procurement of High-Value Medical Consumables; Bidding to Be Held on January 13

A new batch of national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables has been officially launched, covering drug-eluting balloon and urological interventional medical consumables, with bidding scheduled for January 13.

### Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is risky and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this article shall be at the user's own risk.

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