What big news is expected to ignite market sentiment in 2026? Understand the “AI Catalyst” of major American companies in one article

# Source: Wall Street Insights  By Xu Chao

2026 is set to be another pivotal year where AI-related announcements send ripples through the market. Bank of America Securities has outlined the key AI catalysts for 2026: Amazon may team up with OpenAI to venture into intelligent commerce; Google is expected to join hands with Apple to revamp Siri; Meta will splash over $100 billion to launch AI video tools; and Uber is accelerating the deployment of L4 autonomous driving technology. With high-profile AI firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI on the verge of IPOs, their valuation premiums are likely to drive a re-rating of tech giants like Google, whose price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times highlights compelling investment opportunities.

Amid a continuous uptrend in infrastructure investment, Wall Street’s focus has now shifted from a mere "arms race" to "commercialization and implementation".

According to information from Zhuifeng Trading Desk, Bank of America stated in its January 5 report that 2026 will be another critical year when AI announcements shake up the market. Whether it is chip technology, cutting-edge models, user data, or distribution channels, their significance is growing. Against the backdrop of rising infrastructure investment, AI capabilities remain the core assets and valuation drivers for large-cap internet stocks.

Bank of America has summarized potential blockbuster announcements that could reshape the competitive landscape and monetization trajectories in 2026, acting as key catalysts for investor sentiment.

## Baseline Scenario: Seven Potential Blockbuster Announcements to Reshape the Competitive Landscape

Bank of America believes the following events are highly likely to occur in 2026 and are directly tied to the moats and cash flows of tech giants:

1.  **Amazon Signs an "Agentic Commerce" Agreement with OpenAI**

   The report points out that given news of Amazon’s potential first-time investment in OpenAI and Google’s notable progress with Gemini and its intelligent agent platform, the likelihood of Amazon reaching an intelligent agent commerce deal with OpenAI is on the rise.

   Any agreement would need to be carefully structured to protect Amazon’s Prime membership ecosystem and may include an advertising revenue-sharing component between Amazon and OpenAI.

   Analysts argue that a well-structured agreement, if it safeguards the advertising business at attractive rates, could help alleviate pressure on Amazon’s retail segment while moderately amplifying competitive concerns for Google.

2.  **Google and Apple Sign an AI Mobile Collaboration Agreement**

   Gemini 3.0 has emerged as a leading cutting-edge model, and Android’s AI capabilities have surpassed those of Apple’s iOS.

   Following an August antitrust ruling in Google’s favor, media reports indicated that Apple is moving closer to a deal with Google to license Gemini for revamping Siri. This mobile partnership could enable Apple to accelerate the development of AI features across its ecosystem, while allowing Google to expand Gemini’s consumer reach.

   Analysts note that while somewhat anticipated, the new AI agreement could bolster investor confidence in the durability of Google’s search distribution and monetization advantages, driving an expansion of its valuation multiples.

3.  **Meta Launches AI Video Creation Tools Across Its Core Apps**

   According to consensus market expectations, Meta’s capital expenditure is projected to exceed $100 billion in 2026. This level of spending implies investments in internal AI capabilities and capacity that will far outpace its peers, who also need to add capacity for their large-scale cloud businesses.

   The report argues that part of Meta’s AI capabilities may be specifically dedicated to user-facing AI tools, such as AI video generation tools.

   Given management’s positive commentary on the usage of Vibes within Meta’s AI applications and the importance of limiting the appeal of competing tools like Sora, analysts expect Facebook and Instagram to potentially add AI video generation features in 2026. By distributing compelling new AI video generation tools, investors may anticipate improvements in Meta’s user engagement and monetization capabilities.

4.  **Uber Signs L4 Autonomous Driving Commitments with Major Asian OEMs**

   Uber’s CEO recently visited Asia with the aim of expanding autonomous vehicle deployments to "more than 10 markets".

   The report suggests that Uber may announce partnerships in 2026 with autonomous driving software providers such as NVIDIA or major automakers, including vehicle commitments on the Uber platform.

   Analysts point out that while new OEM agreements involving vehicle commitments (likely on a 2028 timeframe) are unlikely to alter near-term competitive concerns in the U.S., they are positive for long-term L4 competition with Waymo and Tesla, and may prompt other automakers to accelerate L4 development.

5.  **Booking Launches Chat-Based Booking Features**

   While Booking has a partnership with Google for intelligent agent booking functionality, the company has been investing in its own AI capabilities (as part of a $170 million 2025 investment plan) and has indicated that it may announce new AI features in 2026.

   Given the need to match competitors’ offerings, analysts believe it is possible for Booking to directly launch new intelligent agent booking features on its platform in 2026. If Booking’s chat-based booking features are on par with competitors’ intelligent agent AI products, the launch could reduce concerns about direct traffic losses.

6.  **DoorDash Expands Delivery Partnerships with Autonomous Driving Partners**

   In the fourth quarter of 2025, DoorDash announced a new partnership with Waymo to launch autonomous delivery services in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

   The collaboration will initially start with deliveries from DashMart but could expand to other merchants. With autonomous vehicle rollouts expected in multiple new cities in 2026 and 2027, coupled with increased investment spending by DoorDash, the report believes the likelihood of establishing more autonomous delivery partnerships in new metropolitan areas in 2026 is high.

   Analysts state that while they do not expect autonomous delivery partnership announcements to provide financial benefits to DoorDash in the near term, new agreements could help the market take a more favorable view of the long-term returns from automated delivery investment spending.

7.  **AI Unicorn IPOs Set the Tone for Sector Valuations**

   Various media outlets, including Barron's and the Financial Times, have listed companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI as potential IPO candidates for 2026.

   Financial disclosures regarding revenue backlog, revenue growth, profit margins, and profitability timelines could have a significant impact on publicly traded hyperscale cloud providers that are both partners and competitors. Furthermore, public market valuations are meaningful for the valuation of AI investments by AWS, Google Cloud, and Meta.

   The report notes that media reports indicate private AI companies command far higher revenue multiples than their public counterparts, and successful new AI IPOs could act as a catalyst for well-positioned public companies like Google.

## Advanced Game Theory: If These "Low-Probability" Events Occur, Valuation Logic Will Shift

Beyond the above high-probability events, Bank of America has also outlined a set of "advanced" scenarios. If they come to pass, they will significantly alter the market’s perception of companies’ technological capabilities:

- **Amazon Acquires AI Model Technology to Boost Nova**

   Amazon’s Nova model currently lags behind ChatGPT and Gemini. Acquiring cutting-edge models through mergers and acquisitions or "acqui-hires" (similar to Meta’s move with Scale AI) would deliver delayed financial returns but quickly dispel the significant market concern that Amazon is falling behind in LLM (Large Language Model) technology.

- **Meta Licenses Its Proprietary LLM (Avocado) to Enterprises**

   Meta is expected to release the Avocado model in the first quarter of 2026. If the model is proprietary and demonstrates strong performance, Meta licensing it to enterprises would create a new revenue stream, helping to justify its massive AI capital expenditure to Wall Street.

- **Google Sells TPU Chips to Enterprises**

   If Google expands TPU sales from cloud-hosted deployments to direct sales to enterprises (for on-premises or hybrid deployments), it would blur the line between hardware and software giants, enhance the perceived technological value of TPUs, and potentially drive an expansion of Google’s valuation multiples.

- **Airbnb Partners with OpenAI/Google**

   If Airbnb changes its strategy and leverages its unique property inventory to strike an exclusive agent booking agreement with OpenAI or Google, it would bring in incremental traffic and drive its stock price higher.

## Extreme Hypotheses: Paradigm-Shifting Strategic U-Turns and Regulatory Black Swans

Finally, Bank of America has put forward a set of seemingly highly improbable ("Big Stretch") hypotheses that would trigger drastic market volatility if they occur:

- **Meta May License External Cutting-Edge Models for Product Development**

   If Meta’s in-house developed models underperform expectations, it may turn to licensing external models to reduce costs through faster time-to-market. This would represent a major strategic shift, potentially boosting free cash flow due to lower capital expenditure (Capex) but also sparking concerns about its long-term technological capabilities.

- **Amazon Licenses and Integrates ChatGPT or Gemini**

   Despite significant competitive barriers, if Amazon were to integrate competitors’ models into its Bedrock platform to provide model selection diversity for AWS customers, Wall Street would view the expansion of AWS’s model offerings positively.

- **The U.S. Eases Import Rules for Chinese Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)**

   Current regulations prohibit the import of electric vehicles containing Chinese hardware and software. However, given the substantial cost reductions of Chinese AVs, easing these rules would significantly lower fleet costs for Uber and Lyft, dramatically improving their unit economics.

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The above insightful content is from Zhuifeng Trading Desk.

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