The United States, Venezuela, Russia, Ukraine, Israel and Iran - at the end of 2025, geopolitical risks are rising, driving oil prices to rise sharply

**Source**: Wall Street Insights

As 2025 draws to a close, the global energy market is at the epicenter of geopolitical turmoil. From tanker interceptions in the Caribbean Sea, to attacks on energy facilities in the Black Sea, and potential new military strikes in the Middle East, three major geopolitical flashpoints are converging simultaneously. This has reignited market fears of supply disruptions, overshadowing expectations of weak fundamentals.

According to the *Global Times*, the U.S. Coast Guard has carried out more aggressive interception operations in waters near Venezuela—the third such move this month—marking a significant escalation of U.S. efforts to block Venezuelan oil exports.

The situation in the Middle East is also fraught with uncertainties. Citing NBC News, CCTV News reported that Israel is planning a new round of strikes targeting Iran's ballistic missile facilities and intends to seek U.S. support. Coming six months after the large-scale conflicts that erupted in the region last June, this potential escalation has cast a shadow over the prospects of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which had just shown signs of recovery.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones attacked key energy export infrastructure along Russia's Black Sea coast, damaging docks and ships. Market analysts pointed out that these military operations targeting energy transportation chains directly have forced traders to re-evaluate supply security risks.

Driven by these multiple risk factors, international oil prices closed sharply higher on Monday. Brent crude futures rose $1.60, or 2.7%, to settle at $62.07 per barrel; U.S. WTI crude futures climbed $1.49, or 2.6%, to close at $58.01 per barrel.

### U.S. Tightens Maritime Blockade Against Venezuela

U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports are evolving into substantive maritime interception operations.

According to the *Global Times*, the U.S. Coast Guard attempted to intercept the oil tanker *Bella 1* in international waters on Sunday. A day earlier, U.S. authorities confirmed the seizure of the tanker *Century*, which was carrying Venezuelan crude oil. On December 16, U.S. President Trump ordered a "complete and total blockade" of all U.S.-sanctioned tankers entering and exiting Venezuela.

Market expectations regarding supply disruptions from Venezuela are shifting. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that the market had previously underestimated the risks of the U.S. embargo, but after a series of interception operations, the likelihood of a disruption to Venezuelan oil exports has risen sharply. It is reported that Venezuelan crude oil accounts for approximately 1% of global supply.

Although the *Bella 1* was not carrying any cargo at the time, it refused to cooperate with the inspection and sent out a distress signal. This marks the third U.S. operation targeting tankers linked to Venezuela in less than two weeks. The previously seized *Century* and *Captain* were carrying millions of barrels of crude oil respectively.

Parker, head of emerging markets at Rystad Energy, a Norwegian energy consulting firm, said that modern radar and satellite technology have made it difficult for tankers to evade detection by turning off transponders or flying "false flags". The U.S. resolve to intercept has created significant obstacles for related trade activities.

However, this strategy has also sparked concerns within the United States. According to the *Global Times*, U.S. Senator Rand Paul, a Republican, stated on ABC's program, "I think this is a provocation and a prelude to war. I hope we do not go to war with Venezuela." He added, "The mission of U.S. soldiers is not to act as the world's police."

---

### Israel Mulls New Round of Operations Against Iran

New geopolitical tensions are also brewing in the Middle East. Citing NBC News, CCTV News reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to propose a plan to strike Iranian-related facilities again during a meeting with Trump later this month. Israel's rationale is that the expansion of Iran's ballistic missile program has endangered regional security and U.S. interests.

This potential strike comes just six months after the large-scale air strikes launched last June. Although the previous operations were claimed to have "eliminated nuclear threats", Israel still seeks to establish an "absolute security" advantage over Iran. Analysts believe that Israel is worried that Iran will use the gap in negotiations to restore its military capabilities, hence its inclination to launch a preemptive strike.

This plan has once again strained U.S.-Iran relations. While the Trump administration tends to use maximum pressure to gain bargaining chips in negotiations, it is also reluctant to see the Middle East embroiled in a large-scale regional war again, which would disrupt its global strategic layout. Nevertheless, Israel's military threats have undoubtedly increased market uncertainty. In the event of a strategic miscalculation or an accidental clash, not only will the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations reach an impasse, but the entire oil supply landscape in the Middle East may also face reshaping.

---

### Black Sea Energy Hub Attacked Amid Negotiation Deadlock

In the Eastern European battlefield, energy infrastructure has become a direct target of attacks. Reports indicate that Ukrainian drones attacked port facilities in Russia's Krasnodar region, damaging two ships and two docks and triggering fires. The Black Sea region is a vital artery for Russia's energy exports, and this attack has directly rattled market nerves.

Ritterbusch and Associates emphasized in a report that the rise in oil prices is partly attributed to news of the attacks on Black Sea ports, which serves as a reminder that energy supplies in the region are highly vulnerable. Although U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff stated that recent multi-party talks held in Florida were productive, aiming to coordinate positions to end the conflict, feedback from the Kremlin has poured cold water on the prospects of a diplomatic solution. A senior foreign policy advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin said that revisions to the U.S. proposal by Europe and Ukraine have not improved the prospects for peace.

This situation of "negotiating while fighting" has made it difficult for the market to let its guard down. Analysts pointed out that against the backdrop of weak fundamental data, it is precisely these ongoing geopolitical conflicts that have provided crucial support for oil prices, forcing short sellers to cover their positions to avoid sudden risks.

### Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is risky, and investment requires caution. This document does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this document are in line with their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this document shall be at the user's own risk.