Morning News

### Source: Wall Street News

### Market Overview

Ahead of the release of the US non - farm payrolls report, market sentiment remained cautious. The sell - off in AI concept stocks persisted. Companies like Broadcom and Oracle extended their declining trend from last week, dragging down technology stocks and the overall US stock market.

Tesla rose more than 3%, hitting a new high for the year. Broadcom dropped 5.7%, with a cumulative decline of 18% over three days, marking its worst three - day performance since March 2020. Coreweave fell nearly 8%, and Circle plummeted 9.6%. iRobot, the pioneer of robotic vacuum cleaners, declared bankruptcy and its stock price crashed by 70%.

US Treasury bond volatility dropped to its lowest level since May last year, and the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury bond edged down by 0.5 basis points. The US dollar fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, slipping less than 0.1% intraday. Offshore RMB once broke through the 7.04 mark.

Bitcoin fell more than 5% intraday and even dropped below 86,000 US dollars at one point. Ethereum's rebound failed; it plunged nearly 9% from its intraday high and fell below 3,000 US dollars.

Gold surged before plunging sharply. After approaching the high recorded last Friday, it declined by more than 1.5%. Silver outperformed gold, rising 3.7% and reclaiming the 64 - US - dollar mark.

During the Asian trading session, A - shares and H - shares fluctuated and corrected. The ChiNext Index dropped 1.77%, while the mass consumption sector saw a strong rally. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 2%, platinum futures hit the daily limit up, and the 30 - year Treasury bond closed down 0.99%.

### Top News

1.  Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled *Expanding Domestic Demand Is a Strategic Initiative*.

2.  China released its economic data for November. Industrial production maintained resilience, with high - tech manufacturing continuing to provide support. Consumption fell month - on - month to its lowest level this year, while fixed asset investment and the real estate sector came under pressure. Regarding housing prices in 70 cities in November, housing prices in first - tier, second - tier and third - tier cities generally declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened.

3.  China granted the first batch of permits for Level 3 autonomous driving, marking the entry of driverless driving into a new era of commercial application.

4.  Kevin Hassett's prospects for the Federal Reserve chairmanship weakened. Close associates of Donald Trump advocated for John Walsh to take the post, which is expected to trigger drastic changes in the market. Hassett has repeatedly emphasized the "independence" of the Federal Reserve, stating that if he is selected to lead the institution, Trump can put forward suggestions, but these suggestions will carry no weight in the Federal Reserve's decision - making.

5.  Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman once again called for accelerating interest rate cuts. She affirmed that underlying inflation is close to the target and indicated that her term of office may be extended. The third - ranking official of the Federal Reserve noted that following the interest rate cut last week, the monetary policy is well - prepared for next year. Susan Collins, a voting member this year, stated that supporting the interest rate cut last week was a difficult decision.

6.  The rebalancing of major commodity indices is imminent, and gold and silver futures are expected to face significant selling pressure.

7.  NVIDIA launched the Nemotron 3 open - source model series, featuring a hybrid MoE (Mixture of Experts) architecture and a 1 - million - token context window.

8.  The US government, in collaboration with companies including Apple, Microsoft and OpenAI, plans to recruit 1,000 engineers to build a "technological powerhouse".

9.  iRobot, the pioneer of robotic vacuum cleaners, saw its stock price plummet over 70% and declared bankruptcy. Creditors from China may take over the company.

### Market Closing Quotes

#### US and European Stock Markets

|Index|Performance|Closing Price|

| ---- | ---- | ---- |

|S&P 500 Index|Down 0.16%|6,816.51|

|Dow Jones Industrial Average|Down 0.09%|48,416.56|

|Nasdaq Composite Index|Down 0.59%|23,057.413|

|Euro Stoxx 600 Index|Up 0.74%|582.54|

#### A - Shares

|Index|Closing Price|Performance|

| ---- | ---- | ---- |

|Shanghai Composite Index|3,867.92|Down 0.55%|

|Shenzhen Component Index|13,112.09|Down 1.10%|

|ChiNext Index|3,137.80|Down 1.77%|

#### Bond Market

|Bond Type|Performance|Closing Yield|

| ---- | ---- | ---- |

|10 - year US Treasury Bond|Down 0.78 basis points|4.1763%|

|2 - year US Treasury Bond|Down 2.07 basis points|3.5015%|

#### Commodities

|Commodity|Performance|Closing Price|

| ---- | ---- | ---- |

|COMEX Gold Futures|Up 0.12%|4,333.30 US dollars per ounce|

|COMEX Silver Futures|Up 3.25%|64.020 US dollars per ounce|

|WTI Crude Oil Futures (January contract)|Down 1.08%|56.82 US dollars per barrel|

|Brent Crude Oil Futures (February contract)|Down 0.92%|60.56 US dollars per barrel|

# Details of Important News

## Global Highlights

*Qiushi Journal* published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping entitled *Expanding Domestic Demand Is a Strategic Initiative*. According to Xinhua News Agency, the article points out that we must resolutely implement the Guidelines for the Strategic Plan to Expand Domestic Demand, establish a complete domestic demand system as soon as possible, and strive to boost consumption demand supported by income, investment demand with reasonable returns, and financial demand constrained by principal and debt. Consumption serves as a crucial engine for China's economic growth. The fundamental way to expand consumption lies in promoting employment, improving the social security system, optimizing the income distribution structure, expanding the middle-income group, and steadily advancing common prosperity. It is necessary to establish and improve a long-term mechanism for boosting residents' consumption, ensuring that residents have stable incomes to afford consumption, have no worries to dare to consume, and are willing to consume due to a high-quality consumption environment and a strong sense of gain. Additionally, we should improve the mechanism for expanding investment, explore more space for effective investment, deploy new infrastructure construction moderately in advance, increase investment in high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries, and continuously stimulate the vitality of private investment.

China released its economic data for November. Industrial production maintained resilience, with high-tech manufacturing continuing to provide support. Consumption dropped month-on-month to its lowest level this year, while fixed asset investment and the real estate sector came under pressure.

In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year. Crude steel output continued to decline, new energy vehicle output rose by 17%, and high-tech manufacturing maintained rapid growth. Specifically, the added value of equipment manufacturing increased by 7.7% year-on-year, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.4% year-on-year, outpacing the overall added value of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.9 and 3.6 percentage points respectively. Furthermore, crude steel output fell by 10.9% year-on-year to 69.87 million tons in November, marking a continuous decline for six consecutive months. The output of new energy vehicles reached 1.841 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%.

The year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods slowed to 1.3% in November, with the decline in automobile and home appliance retail sales widening. Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment dropped by 19.4%, furniture by 3.8%, and building and decoration materials by 17%, compared with the previous declines of 14.6%, a growth of 9.6%, and a decline of 8.3% respectively. Auto retail sales fell by 8.3%, worse than the previous decline of 6.6%, while retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 8.5%, a significant slowdown from the previous 37.6% growth.

From January to November, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year and 1.03% month-on-month. In the secondary industry, industrial investment rose by 4.0% year-on-year. Among this, investment in the mining industry increased by 4.0%, investment in the manufacturing sector by 1.9%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water surged by 10.7%.

During the same period, national real estate development investment reached 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of newly-built commercial housing stood at 787.02 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, including an 8.1% drop in the sales area of residential buildings. By the end of November, the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 3.01 million square meters from the end of October to 753.06 million square meters. The funds available to real estate development enterprises totaled 8.5145 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%, and the real estate development climate index continued to decline.

Regarding housing prices in 70 cities in November, housing prices in first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities generally decreased month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline expanding further. Specifically, for second-hand residential housing prices, the year-on-year decline widened in all three tiers of cities; the month-on-month decline expanded in first-tier cities, remained the same as the previous month in second-tier cities, and narrowed in third-tier cities. For newly-built commercial residential housing prices, the month-on-month decline expanded in first-tier cities but narrowed in second and third-tier cities, while the year-on-year decline widened across all three tiers.

Guo Lei from GF Securities stated that the November economic data indicated a generally stable supply side, with industrial production retaining resilience and high-tech manufacturing continuing to provide support. However, domestic demand was notably weak, with consumption hitting a yearly low month-on-month, and fixed asset investment and the real estate sector under significant pressure. The resilient export performance emerged as a key bright spot. Amid the constraint of a high base, it has become increasingly necessary to stabilize short-term growth momentum and further strengthen policy support.

The macroeconomic team led by Tao Chuan from Guolian Minsheng Securities held that the November economy showed a pattern of "stable industry and sluggish investment and consumption". Consumption will remain under short-term pressure due to the early launch of major promotions and reduced subsidies. On the investment front, although the real estate sector still exerted a drag, the manufacturing industry has reached a turning point, and infrastructure investment is expected to stop declining with policy support. Guided by the policy of "promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize", investment is likely to stabilize ahead of consumption and become a major pillar for a strong start of the economy in the first quarter of next year.

China granted market access permits to the first batch of Level 3 autonomous driving models. On the 15th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced the first batch of access permits for conditionally autonomous Level 3 vehicles in China. Among them, one model from Changan Automobile can achieve single-lane autonomous driving at a maximum speed of 50 km/h on designated congested roads in Chongqing, and one model from BAIC Arcfox can perform the same function at a maximum speed of 80 km/h on designated expressways in Beijing. This marks that China's Level 3 autonomous driving has entered a new phase of road testing in designated areas.

The issuance of the first Level 3 autonomous driving access permits has ushered in a new era of "commercial application" for driverless driving in China. The permits granted to Changan Automobile and BAIC Arcfox for commercial trials on restricted roads indicate that China's autonomous driving has officially moved beyond the testing phase and entered a new cycle featuring deliverability, operability and accountability. With clear definition of liability and a sound regulatory closed-loop system, the commercialization of Level 3 autonomous driving has opened up practical paths for the large-scale development of the industrial chain and Robotaxis.

Kevin Hassett's prospects for the Federal Reserve chairmanship have weakened. Close associates of Donald Trump have advocated for John Walsh to take the post, which is expected to trigger drastic changes in the market. Hassett, once regarded by the market as a near-shoo-in for the position, is now facing resistance from senior officials who can directly advise President Trump. Concerns have arisen that Hassett is overly close to Trump; if the bond market perceives him as being too compliant with Trump, it may stage a backlash over time. Currently, Hassett's winning probability in prediction markets stands at 51%, a significant drop from over 80% earlier this month. Data from Polymarket even suggests that Walsh is more likely than Hassett to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman.

Hassett has repeatedly emphasized the "independence" of the Federal Reserve. He stated that if selected to lead the institution, Trump could put forward suggestions, but these suggestions would carry no weight in the Federal Reserve's decision-making. Hassett explicitly refuted the view that the President's opinions should hold equal weight to those of the FOMC voting members. He noted that policymakers are free to reject the President's proposals and "vote differently". "No, no, he won't have any influence. However, if his opinions are good and data-driven, they will be of great significance," Hassett said.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman once again called for accelerating interest rate cuts, asserting that underlying inflation is close to the target and indicating that her term of office may be extended. Bowman argued that "spurious inflation" has distorted the Federal Reserve's decision-making, stating that the current inflation exceeding the target fails to reflect the inherent supply and demand dynamics of the economy. She pointed out that housing inflation is a lagging indicator and warned that maintaining unnecessary monetary tightening could lead to unemployment. She may remain in office after her term expires at the end of January until a new governor is appointed to replace her. Meanwhile, John Williams, the third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve, stated that following the interest rate cut last week, the monetary policy is well-prepared for next year. Susan Collins, a voting member this year, noted that supporting the interest rate cut last week was a difficult decision, as she still harbors concerns about inflation.

The rebalancing of major commodity indices is imminent, and gold and silver futures are poised to face substantial selling pressure. JPMorgan Chase warned that after outperforming the market for three consecutive years, gold and silver now account for an excessively high weight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). During the index rebalancing in January 2026, passive funds will be forced to conduct technical sell-offs. It is estimated that the scale of futures sell-offs will account for 9% and 3% of the total open interest of silver and gold respectively.

NVIDIA launched the Nemotron 3 open-source model series, featuring a hybrid MoE architecture and a 1-million-token context window. On Monday, NVIDIA unveiled its latest open-source AI model series, Nemotron 3, along with supporting data and tools, aiming to provide industries with transparent, efficient, and customizable capabilities for developing agent AI. The Nemotron 3 series includes three versions: Nano, Super, and Ultra. It adopts an innovative latent Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture, which significantly improves inference efficiency and reduces operational costs. On Monday, NVIDIA's stock opened nearly 1.7% higher and closed 0.7% higher.

The U.S. government has joined hands with companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and OpenAI to recruit 1,000 engineers for building a "tech force". The Trump administration launched a talent initiative called "U.S. Tech Force", which will focus on AI infrastructure and other technological projects. A two-way talent mobility mechanism will also be established. Participants who complete a 2-year tenure will be given priority in employment by partner companies, and enterprises can also nominate employees to participate in government secondment programs. The annual salary will range from 150,000 to 200,000 US dollars.

Still reeling from last week's earnings reports! Broadcom and Oracle fell again, and the AI infrastructure sector continued to be sold off. Three companies closely linked to AI infrastructure construction—Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Oracle—declined again on Monday after a sharp drop last week, highlighting a significant shift toward pessimism in market sentiment. Broadcom's stock fell another 5.6% on Monday, following an 11% plunge last Friday. Oracle dropped 2.7% on Monday, with a cumulative decline of 17% over the past three trading days. CoreWeave's stock fell approximately 8% on Monday, adding to an 11% decline in the previous week.

Tesla surged over 3% to a new yearly high, driven by the AI narrative. Analysts believe that Tesla's fundamental business is no longer the main driver, and its stock trading is more influenced by investor sentiment, with the AI narrative supporting its trillion-dollar valuation. On Monday, Tesla extended its gains from last Friday, closing 3.56% higher and hitting a new high for the year. The stock price reached an intraday peak of 481.77 US dollars, temporarily breaking the closing record of 479.86 US dollars set on December 17, 2024.

iRobot, the pioneer of robotic vacuum cleaners, saw its stock plummet over 70% and announced bankruptcy, with Chinese creditors potentially taking over. iRobot will complete its restructuring through bankruptcy protection proceedings. Shenzhen Yinxing Intelligent Technology will acquire 100% of its equity and write off 190 million US dollars of the company's debt. In recent years, iRobot has been hit hard by competition from Chinese counterparts, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, and the failure of its acquisition by Amazon. Its market value has plummeted from a peak of 3.56 billion US dollars in 2021 to less than 38 million US dollars in intraday trading on Monday.

## Important Research Reports

### Morgan Stanley's Landmark Robotics Yearbook: AI Goes Physical; Robotics Enters a Cambrian Explosion with China Holding a Distinct Leading Edge

Robotics is "breaking out of factories", with training focus shifting from the "brain" to the "body", and edge computing power is expected to experience explosive growth.

Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, global robotics hardware sales will soar from approximately 100 billion US dollars in 2025 to 25 trillion US dollars, and shipments will increase from 24 million units to 1.4 billion units. China has demonstrated a clear leading advantage, particularly in policies, control over key materials, and manufacturing capabilities. It is estimated that by 2050, China will account for about 26% of global robotics shipments.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that AI robots are moving from factories to complex real-world scenarios, and the focus of training is shifting from AI model optimization to the execution of physical movements. Robots need to collect real physical data through remote operation, simulation training, and video learning. As application scenarios expand, the demand for real-time decision-making has become prominent, making edge computing power an essential requirement. The bank forecasts that the global shipment of 1.4 billion robots by 2050 will drive the demand for edge AI computing power to the equivalent of millions of B200 chips, reshaping the global layout of computing infrastructure.

### Domestic Macroeconomy

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC): Strengthen the reputation management responsibilities of industry institutions and listed companies, and continuously tell a compelling "stock market story". Wu Qing, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the CSRC, presided over an expanded Party Committee meeting and proposed to strengthen policy interpretation and expectation guidance, promptly respond to market concerns, consolidate the reputation management responsibilities of industry institutions and listed companies, and keep telling a good "stock market story". It will launch and implement the deepening of the ChiNext reform and accelerate the implementation of the Science and Technology Innovation Board's "1+6" reform measures. Efforts will be made to promote the high-quality development of the private equity fund industry, put the pilot program of commercial real estate REITs into practice as soon as possible, and explore the launch of new key futures varieties. Adhering to the principle of supporting high-quality entities while restricting inferior ones, it will accelerate the development of first-class investment banks and investment institutions. It will steadily expand institutional opening-up, optimize the qualified foreign institutional investor system and the interconnection mechanism, and improve the quality and efficiency of overseas listing registration and filing.

### Overseas Macroeconomy

New York State's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted, with orders stagnant and the price index hitting a low since January. After two consecutive months of steady growth, New York State's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in December, recording -3.9, which was significantly lower than expected, due to stagnant orders and falling shipments. However, the data also had bright spots: the outlook index rose to its highest level since the start of this year, the prices paid index dropped to its lowest level since January this year, and the employment indicator rebounded slightly.

Has the market underestimated the probability of an interest rate cut in January? Employment and CPI data this week will be key variables. UBS believes that Powell has not ruled out the possibility of an interest rate cut in January, and his concerns about the labor market have exceeded those about rising inflation. If the data this week confirms that the labor market remains weak (the key lies in whether the unemployment rate rises to 4.5%) and inflationary pressures are manageable, the FOMC may reconsider a more accommodative policy stance. The non-farm payroll reports for both October and November will be released simultaneously this Tuesday, and the CPI data will be announced this Thursday.

Will the number of Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 be determined by the non-farm payroll data on Tuesday? Differences in the bond market are intensifying. Disagreements in the U.S. Treasury bond market over the interest rate cut path in 2026 have widened. Optimists hold that the non-farm payroll data on Tuesday may become the "most crucial data point next year", which will determine the pace of interest rate cuts and verify expectations of early easing. On the contrary, cautious observers argue that the data is distorted by interference, and real pricing should be based on the data at the beginning of next year and the Fed's meeting on January 28, noting that the short-term volatility risk in the bond market remains high.

Is the Fed's RMP plus the U.S. Treasury's Treasury issuance management equivalent to QE? Bank of America holds that the Fed's Reserve Management Purchase Program (RMP), combined with adjustments to the Treasury's bond issuance strategy, forms a "QE-like combination of measures". In 2026, the Federal Reserve is expected to purchase $560 billion in short-term bonds, while the Treasury will issue an additional $500 billion in short-term bonds and reduce the issuance of $600 billion in medium and long-term bonds simultaneously. This shift in supply structure will effectively reduce market duration risk and is expected to exert downward pressure of 20-30 basis points on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield.

If AI fails to fulfill its productivity commitments, will the U.S. face a more devastating depression than that in 2008? The U.S. government is betting its economic recovery on improved AI productivity to resolve the imbalance between federal debt and welfare commitments. Well-known investment institutions have warned that if AI fails to deliver on its promises, the U.S. will fall into a deep recession and a sovereign debt crisis, with destructive impacts far exceeding those of the 2008 financial crisis. As the government, acting as the ultimate buyer, gets into trouble itself, the entire financial system will lose its safety net.

Japan's manufacturing confidence hits a four-year high, adding weight to a December interest rate hike. The business confidence of Japan's major manufacturing enterprises climbed to a four-year high in December. Coupled with strong capital expenditure and stable inflation expectations, this has removed key obstacles for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this week. The market has fully priced in an expected hike in the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%. This interest rate increase is regarded as a continuation of the monetary policy normalization process rather than its end.

The Bank of Japan may start reducing its ETF holdings as early as January, selling only 330 billion yen per year. It is reported that the Bank of Japan will launch the reduction of its 83 trillion yen ETF holdings as early as January next year, selling only 330 billion yen annually, which means it will take 112 years to fully liquidate the holdings. The central bank is adopting an extremely slow pace to avoid disrupting the market. Drawing on the experience of selling bank stocks in the 2000s, the reduction may be suspended in the event of a financial crisis. Analysts believe that the moderate reduction will have a limited impact on the market, reflecting the central bank's strategy of exchanging time for stability.

### Overseas Companies

Is SpaceX preparing for a "super IPO" next year, starting the selection of investment banks, with Google as a major shareholder? Although the IPO has not been finalized, SpaceX's valuation has soared sharply in the secondary market trading, surging to about $800 billion, doubling the $400 billion recorded last summer. As an early investor that has held SpaceX shares since 2015, Alphabet, Google's parent company, is expected to record substantial book gains due to the new round of valuation surge of SpaceX.

Led by Musk, with Bezos and Jensen Huang joining in, the U.S. tech circle has suddenly been flooded with discussions about space data centers. To cope with the surging demand for AI computing power and ground power bottlenecks, major U.S. tech giants are collectively turning to the concept of "space data centers". Google plans to launch a prototype test satellite in 2027, and companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin are also accelerating their layout. Driven by the decline in launch costs and the reshaping of capital narratives, this trend is pushing the field from a technological vision to the early verification stage.

Clustering around financial backers in a bear market! Crypto tycoons gather in Abu Dhabi, calling the UAE the "new Wall Street of the crypto industry". Amid the sluggish crypto market, industry leaders are pinning their hopes on investors from the UAE. During multiple meetings last week, ranging from the Bitcoin Middle East Conference, exclusive beach club galas for crypto whales to champagne parties on super yachts, crypto executives actively sought to engage with representatives of UAE sovereign wealth funds. The UAE's interest in cryptocurrencies has also been on the rise. Binance obtained full approval from Abu Dhabi's financial regulatory authorities last week to operate its global trading platform from the region.

The three worst-performing stocks in the 2022 U.S. stock bear market - Carvana, Robinhood, and Coinbase - have all been included in the S&P 500 this year. On the verge of bankruptcy in 2022, these three companies achieved full profitability in 2024 through rigorous cost-cutting and strategic transformation, and were successively added to the S&P 500 index, completing an amazing reversal from market outcasts to core assets. This transformation not only signifies that their business models have regained mainstream recognition but also caused heavy losses to investors who had shorted these stocks on a large scale, highlighting the sharp rotation of the market in the macroeconomic cycle.

SK Hynix's internal analysis exposed: The shortage of DRAM will last until 2028! SK Hynix predicts that the market share of AI servers will soar from 38% in 2025 to 53% in 2030, driving a strong 24% growth in DRAM demand. On the supply side, the fundamental constraint lies in the long cycle of capacity expansion. It takes several years for new DRAM factories to start operations after construction, and the newly added capacity is not expected to be released until 2028. This forecast is more grim than UBS's prediction that the supply tightness will last until the first quarter of 2027. Does this mean that the price increase cycle may exceed expectations?

OpenAI poaches again, luring Albert Lee from Google to take charge of the company's development. Albert Lee was previously in charge of corporate development at Google Cloud and Google DeepMind, and participated in several high-profile acquisition cases of Google, including the $32 billion acquisition of cloud security startup Wiz announced by Google in March this year.

### Industries/Concepts

1.  **Lithium Iron Phosphate** : According to Sina Finance, the new energy industry chain has witnessed price fluctuations since early December, among which lithium iron phosphate cathode material manufacturers have launched a collective price increase wave. It is learned from multiple sources that as 2026 approaches, many lithium iron phosphate enterprises have started negotiating prices with customers. Some leading enterprises have put forward price increase requests, with the increase ranging from 2,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan per ton. Some enterprises even stated that the price increase trend is expected to last until the fourth quarter of 2026.

   > **Comment** : Miao Min, a lithium battery analyst at Zhuochuang Information & Fubao, said that current orders of lithium iron phosphate enterprises have been scheduled until the first quarter of 2026, and some enterprises have even suspended accepting new orders. The supply-demand structure of high-end products such as high-compaction lithium iron phosphate remains tight. On the supply side, the release of new production capacity still takes time, while the low-end capacity is being phased out rapidly, which cannot quickly fill the market gap. Meanwhile, the price of iron phosphate is expected to rise further in 2026, with sustained cost support. Therefore, the short-term processing fees are likely to keep rising.

2.  **Carbon Fiber** : According to Shanghai Securities News, Toray Industries, Inc., a global leader in the carbon fiber industry, announced that starting from January 2026, the global prices of its flagship carbon fiber product "Torayca" and its intermediate processed products (such as prepregs, fabrics, and laminates) will be increased by 10% to 20%.

   > **Comment** : Research institutions believe that the carbon fiber industry is currently in the recovery stage at the bottom of the cycle. After the in-depth price adjustment and capacity reduction in the early stage, the industry's supply-demand pattern has gradually recovered, and prices have shown signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. With the "anti-involution" policies promoting industrial supply contraction and concentration improvement, the industry prosperity is expected to keep improving. On the demand side, there has been a structural recovery: the wind power sector has achieved strong growth, the aerospace sector is continuously recovering, and the low-altitude economy (such as eVTOL and UAVs) has become a new growth driver.

3.  **Autonomous Driving** : On December 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced China's first batch of access permits for conditional Level 3 autonomous driving models. Two models, respectively suitable for urban congested roads and expressways, will launch road tests in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing. This marks a crucial step for China's Level 3 autonomous driving to move from the testing phase to commercial application. The two models announced are the Changan SC7000AAARBEV pure electric sedan and the Arcfox BJ7001A61NBEV pure electric sedan.

   > **Comment** : CITIC Securities holds that positive changes have taken place in high-level autonomous driving in various scenarios, and leading companies are accelerating commercialization. Nationwide, the development of relevant products and technologies in first-tier cities is in the leading position, and the supporting policies and incentive measures of these cities are one of the key driving factors. Since the beginning of this year, both Beijing and Guangzhou have implemented new policies to encourage the innovative application of high-level autonomous driving. As the relevant laws and regulations on autonomous driving are gradually improved, all links in the industrial chain are expected to accelerate technological R & D and product launch, which will benefit the automotive intelligence industrial chain.

4.  **Manganese** : According to the Global Ferroalloy Network, the domestic electrolytic manganese market price has surged sharply recently. On the 15th, the quotation range of the Manganese Triangle area was 15,600 - 15,800 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan from the previous trading day; the distribution price in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was 16,000 - 16,200 yuan per ton, also up by 300 yuan from the previous trading day. The mainstream ex-factory spot quotation with tax and cash payment was mostly 15,800 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and some traders even quoted prices above 16,000 yuan per ton. The cumulative increase in nearly a month has reached 1,800 yuan per ton. At the end of last week, a benchmark steel mill set the tax-included and acceptance price for the new round of spherical electrolytic manganese and low-carbon manganese metal balls at 16,600 yuan per ton in the tender, a month-on-month increase of 2,102 - 2,420 yuan per ton compared with the previous round. This has further boosted the market sentiment of maintaining and expecting higher prices.

   > **Comment** : Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Analysis pointed out that driven by the combined effect of multiple positive factors such as rising raw material costs, supply contraction, stockpiling for the peak demand season, and rigid procurement by steel mills, the spot circulation volume in the current electrolytic manganese market has been decreasing sharply. The pattern of supply shortage and difficulty in obtaining goods has become increasingly obvious, directly pushing up the spot price. Looking forward to the future market, the tight balance between supply and demand in the industry is difficult to ease in the short term. Combined with positive market sentiment and low spot inventory, the electrolytic manganese price is likely to continue the upward trend. Although downstream enterprises may have the willingness to push down prices, it is expected to be unable to reverse the upward price trend supported by the strong supply-demand fundamentals and cost factors, and the market will generally maintain a strong operation pattern.

5.  **Brain-Computer Interface** : According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on the 15th, the "2026 CAICT In-depth Observation Conference" was recently held in Beijing. It was mentioned at the conference that China's brain-computer interface industry achieved remarkable development results in 2025, with significant progress in core technological breakthroughs, the implementation of multi-scenario applications, and the construction of the industrial ecosystem, laying a solid foundation for the large-scale development and high-quality upgrading of the industry.

   > **Comment** : Analysts believe that at present, China's brain-computer interface technology has achieved encouraging breakthroughs in core components and decoding algorithms. For example, the number of channels of many independently developed brain-computer interface chips and implantable electrodes has been continuously increased, and their stability has been gradually improved. The rapid application of artificial intelligence technology has greatly improved decoding accuracy, successfully realizing the decoding of the subjects' refined motor intentions. In terms of scenario implementation, invasive brain-computer interfaces focus on medical scenarios, with dozens of clinical cases achieved so far. Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces are mainly deployed in the consumer and industrial fields. A number of non-invasive integrated devices have been mass-produced, gradually building a multi-scenario application ecosystem and paving the way for large-scale commercialization in the future. The continuous breakthroughs in "core components + algorithms" have promoted the rapid improvement of various links in China's brain-computer interface technology industrial chain. The independent control of key components provides support for the large-scale launch of clinical and consumer products.

6.  **Outsourcing Services** : The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments issued the *Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Service Outsourcing*. It mentioned that by 2030, it will cultivate a number of leading service outsourcing enterprises with international competitiveness, build a number of service outsourcing clusters with strong innovation capabilities and distinct industrial advantages, enhance the digital, intelligent, green and integrated development level of service outsourcing, significantly increase the number of jobs, and make service outsourcing an important part of innovating and improving trade in services and developing digital trade.

   > **Comment** : Analysts hold that service outsourcing is an important component of trade in services and a key way to realize digital trade, playing a vital role in building a new development pattern. Emerging technologies such as cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things will be deeply integrated into the service outsourcing industry, driving its transformation towards digitalization, intelligence and high-endization. In particular, the application of generative AI technology will greatly improve the efficiency and quality of service outsourcing, promoting the industry's transformation towards intelligence and platformization. The traditional service model will be upgraded to an "industry empowerment + ecological service" model, and service outsourcing will transform from a mere "cost center" to a "value center". Supported by digital transformation, technological innovation and policies, the service outsourcing industry will achieve high-quality development and become an important engine driving trade in services and digital trade.

7.  **Elderly Care** : Recently, four departments, namely the National Health Commission, the National Healthcare Security Administration, the National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, issued the *Action Plan for Improving the Capacity of Elderly Care Services*. The plan proposes that by 2027, it will effectively expand elderly care resources, build an elderly care service system covering institutions, communities and home-based care, significantly improve the service capabilities of practitioners, continuously enhance the continuity, accessibility and standardization of services, and effectively enhance the sense of gain among the elderly.

### Comment

Analysts believe that China has entered a deeply aging society. Given the accelerated arrival of an aging society and the rising awareness of elderly care among the middle class, China's elderly care industry has maintained steady growth in recent years. According to forecasts, the number of people aged 60 and above in China will exceed 300 million by 2025, accounting for over 21% of the total population. The market size is expected to surpass 19.5 trillion yuan by 2029. The silver economy has emerged as one of the most certain sunrise industries. In terms of service models, home-based care and community-based care will become the mainstream. With the development of science and technology, smart elderly care will evolve into a key trend. The application of high-tech products such as smart wearable devices, AI health monitoring systems, VR technology and elderly care robots will greatly enhance the precision and technological level of elderly care services. Meanwhile, the integrated medical and elderly care model will be further promoted to achieve in-depth integration of medical resources and elderly care services.

### Preview of Today's Key News

- US November non-farm payrolls

- December manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for the US, Eurozone, UK and Japan

- US October retail sales

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