Morning News

# Market Overview & Key News

Source: Wall Street CN

## Market Overview

Weak cloud revenue and massive capital expenditure plans in Oracle's earnings report reignited market concerns. Oracle plunged as much as 16% and closed down nearly 11%, dragging the Nasdaq to a lower close. Meanwhile, boosted by the Federal Reserve's more dovish-than-expected stance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap stocks hit all-time highs.

OpenAI launched GPT-5.2, with Google falling 2.43% to lead declines among the Magnificent Seven tech giants. After-hours, Broadcom's stock fluctuated—rising initially then falling as much as 5% following its earnings report, weighing on the Nasdaq 100. Lululemon surged as much as 12% post-earnings.

U.S. Treasury yields generally fell first then rose, with the 10-year yield edging up 0.78 basis points. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.29%, touching the 98 support level intraday. Offshore renminbi breached its yearly high again after five trading days, rising above 7.05 at one point.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000 before rebounding, climbing more than 4% from its daily low. Ethereum dropped over 5% at one stage.

Gold rose nearly 1.3%, breaking December's high and approaching $4,300. Spot silver gained around 3% to a new all-time high, with futures jumping as much as 6%. Crude oil fell over 3%. LME copper futures hit a new intraday record high.

During the Asian session, China's three major A-share indices pulled back, while the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index closed up nearly 4%. The commercial space sector strengthened, with MEGA Threads surging past 900 yuan. The real estate sector corrected, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.83%, and ZTE Corporation suffered a sharp drop.

## Key News

The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, with Xi Jinping delivering an important speech. The conference emphasized continuing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, further promoting special campaigns to boost consumption, and eliminating unreasonable restrictive measures in the consumption sector.

U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 44,000 last week, marking the largest increase since 2020, while continuing claims plummeted to an eight-month low.

The gold "hoarding spree" has subsided, with the U.S. trade deficit narrowing to a five-year low in September.

Broadcom's AI chip revenue accelerated 74% last quarter and is expected to double this quarter, but its backlog was underwhelming. The company warned that gross profit margins are narrowing due to AI product sales. Broadcom's stock rose as much as 4% after-hours before turning negative, falling over 5% at one point.

OpenAI released GPT-5.2 to compete with Gemini, claiming it is the most powerful agent for coding—surpassing human experts. Sam Altman expects the red alert to be lifted in January and expressed excitement about "upcoming chips."

On the eve of GPT-5.2's launch, Microsoft's CEO announced that the "next-generation" Agentic AI model will be unveiled on Friday.

Disney invested $1 billion in OpenAI and licensed its iconic characters to Sora.

TSMC aims to ramp up monthly CoWoS production to 127,000 units next year, with Nvidia securing over half of the capacity, followed by Broadcom and AMD.

Rivian launched a major challenge to Nvidia by announcing its AI chip and L4 autonomous driving roadmap, but its stock plummeted as much as 10%.

Ciena's Q4 revenue increased 20% year-on-year to $1.35 billion, a record high.

With the Federal Reserve showing reduced hawkishness, rate-cut trades have made a comeback. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup share the same expectation of another rate cut in January. As the Fed "cuts rates alone" while other central banks even start hiking, the U.S. dollar's depreciation will become a focus in 2026.

Howard Marks warned that further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will have little significance. Big short Michael Burry cautioned that the Fed's RMP is intended to cover up the fragility of the banking system, essentially restarting QE.

Facing collective pressure from automakers, the EU delayed the release of the new "70% European-made" regulation, which BMW criticized as "extremely dangerous."

## Market Closing Quotes

### U.S. & European Stocks

- S&P 500: +0.21% to 6,901 points, breaking the closing all-time high set on October 28.

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.34% to 48,704.01 points, surpassing the closing all-time high from November 12.

- Nasdaq Composite: -0.26% to 23,593.855 points.

- Europe's STOXX 600 Index: +0.55% to 581.34 points.

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: -0.70% to 3,873.32 points.

- Shenzhen Component Index: -1.27% to 13,147.39 points.

- ChiNext Index: -1.41% to 3,163.67 points.

### Bond Market

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: +0.98 basis points to 4.1566%.

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: +0.23 basis points to 3.5404%.

### Commodities

- COMEX Gold Futures: +2.01% to $4,309.70 per ounce.

- COMEX Silver Futures: +4.92% to $64.030 per ounce, hitting an intraday high of $64.720.

- WTI January Crude Oil Futures: -1.47% to $57.60 per barrel.

- Brent February Crude Oil Futures: -1.49% to $61.28 per barrel.

# Details of Key News

## Global Highlights

The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, with Xi Jinping delivering an important speech.

The conference pointed out that it is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. Taking promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices as important considerations for monetary policy, we will flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, maintain ample liquidity, smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and guide financial institutions to increase support for key areas including expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises.

Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control new supply, destock, and optimize supply, while encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing primarily for affordable housing. We will actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, urge all regions to take the initiative to reduce debt, and prohibit illegal accumulation of new hidden debts.

Adhere to the dominance of domestic demand and build a strong domestic market. Further implement special campaigns to boost consumption and formulate and implement plans to increase the income of urban and rural residents. Clear unreasonable restrictive measures in the consumption sector and release the potential of service consumption.

U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 44,000 last week, marking the largest increase since 2020, while continuing claims plummeted to an eight-month low. Populous states such as California, Illinois, New York, and Texas were the main drivers, with California contributing particularly significantly. In sharp contrast to the sharp increase in initial claims, continuing claims dropped substantially. For the week ending November 29, continuing claims fell to 1.84 million, the largest single-week decline in four years.

The gold "hoarding spree" has subsided, with the U.S. trade deficit narrowing to a five-year low in September. The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level in five years in September, mainly because U.S. investors shipped gold back overseas after the previous large-scale imports.

Broadcom's AI chip revenue accelerated 74% last quarter and is expected to double this quarter, but its backlog was underwhelming. Broadcom's fourth-quarter revenue and profits both hit record highs, increasing nearly 30% and 40% year-on-year respectively. The revenue guidance growth rate for the first quarter is flat with the previous quarter, and AI chip revenue is nearly 20% higher than market expectations. Broadcom announced it will raise its quarterly dividend by 10% this fiscal year, making the full-year dividend a record high. The CEO stated that there is a backlog of $73 billion in AI product orders, calling this a "minimum figure," and mentioned that $11 billion in orders were obtained from Anthropic in the fourth quarter. However, he warned that gross profit margins are narrowing due to AI product sales. Broadcom's stock rose as much as 4% after-hours before turning negative, falling over 5% at one point.

OpenAI released GPT-5.2 to compete with Gemini, claiming it is the most powerful agent for coding—surpassing human experts. Sam Altman expects the red alert to be lifted in January. Three versions of GPT-5.2 were launched on ChatGPT's paid plans on Thursday: Instant focuses on speed and efficiency, Pro is the smartest and most reliable choice for high-quality answers, and Thinking is the best assistant model for scientists. Known as the best visual model, Thinking set a new record high in the SWE coding ability test, becoming OpenAI's first model with performance meeting or exceeding human experts. In the GDPval professional knowledge test, it completes tasks more than 11 times faster than experts at less than 1% of the cost. Altman stated that Gemini 3 has had less impact on OpenAI than previously feared.

Altman expressed excitement about "upcoming chips." OpenAI has not yet issued any official announcements disclosing the progress of its self-developed chips. News about OpenAI's chip research and development and related partners has continued this year. It is reported that OpenAI plans to complete the design of custom chips this year and send them to TSMC for manufacturing, with the goal of mass production next year. In addition to Broadcom, there are reports that OpenAI is negotiating with Arm to cooperate on chip design.

On the eve of GPT-5.2's launch, Microsoft's CEO announced that the "next-generation" Agentic AI model will be unveiled on Friday. Microsoft stated that it will release a new generation of AI models on Friday, aiming to elevate AI agent capabilities to a new level. This move is seen as a signal that Microsoft is seeking greater strategic initiative amid intensifying industry competition.

Disney invested $1 billion in OpenAI and licensed its iconic characters to Sora. The licensing agreement allows Sora to use materials from Disney, Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars character libraries, and the generated videos and images are expected to be available starting in early 2026.

TSMC aims to ramp up monthly CoWoS production to 127,000 units next year, with Nvidia securing over half of the capacity, followed by Broadcom and AMD. According to reports, TSMC is accelerating the expansion of advanced packaging capacity, and monthly CoWoS production is expected to reach 127,000 units by the end of 2026, a significant increase of more than 20% from the original forecast. Nvidia accounts for over half of the capacity with an annual reservation of 800,000 to 850,000 units. Broadcom ranks second with 240,000 units mainly supplied to Meta and Google. AMD is third, and MediaTek has also entered the ASIC market.

Rivian launched a major challenge to Nvidia by announcing its AI chip and L4 autonomous driving roadmap, but its stock plummeted as much as 10%. On Thursday, Rivian released its self-developed AI chip RAP1 (Rivian Autonomy Processor 1), next-generation in-vehicle computer, and new AI model. It plans to replace Nvidia's solutions in the R2 model and launch the subscription service Autonomy+. The company is betting on lidar and L4 autonomous driving, hoping to open up higher profit margins through software business.

Ciena's Q4 revenue increased 20% year-on-year to $1.35 billion, a record high. Ciena released a strong quarterly report, with fourth-quarter revenue and profits exceeding expectations, and full-year revenue reaching $4.77 billion. The optical network business performed outstandingly, growing 22.9% year-on-year and becoming the core growth engine. The automated software business grew rapidly but remains small in scale. The company's stock price rose 175% for the full year, mainly benefiting from the growth in demand for AI and cloud computing.

Silver's rally continues, with New York silver surging as much as 6.0% intraday. Analysts believe that supply-demand imbalance and the loose interest rate environment have driven silver's gains to outpace gold this year. On Thursday, the gold-silver ratio reached 67 times, approaching the 2021 low. Spot silver prices hit a record high of $64.28 per ounce on Thursday, while New York silver futures rose 6.0% intraday to $64.69 per ounce.

After surging 115%, how much higher can silver go? Analysts: Targeting triple digits next year. Tight supply, safe-haven demand, and industrial applications have driven this round of silver's rally. The Silver Institute expects demand from sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence to continue growing until 2030. Many analysts predict that silver is expected to break through $100 in 2026, and it is currently at the start of a long-term bull market, with any correction being only a temporary pause. In addition, the gold-silver ratio has dropped to a low level of 68, indicating that silver still has room for growth relative to gold.

Gold to hit $4,900 next year? Goldman Sachs: U.S. private investment positions are "severely underweight," and each 1-basis-point increase in allocation will push gold prices up 1.4%. A Goldman Sachs report shows that U.S. gold ETFs currently account for only 0.17% of private non-cash financial portfolios, about 6 basis points lower than the 2012 peak and far below the level recommended by institutions. Goldman Sachs stated that if diversified capital flows expand from central banks to private investors, its gold price target of $4,900 faces "significant upside risks."

With the Federal Reserve showing reduced hawkishness, rate-cut trades have made a comeback. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup share the same expectation of another rate cut in January. Wall Street generally believes that although the Federal Reserve's December meeting sent hawkish signals such as rare internal divisions and emphasis on data dependence, it did not shake its dovish stance. The mainstream expectation of major Wall Street banks still points to continued rate cuts early next year, with JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup unanimously predicting another rate cut in January next year.

As the Fed "cuts rates alone" while other central banks even start hiking, the U.S. dollar's depreciation will become a focus in 2026. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and the market generally expects the Fed to maintain loose policies next year. Meanwhile, central banks in Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and other countries generally maintain a tightening bias. Analysts such as Goldman Sachs believe that this policy divergence is expected to have a key impact on the exchange rate market around 2026, and downward pressure on the U.S. dollar is becoming a market focus. A weaker U.S. dollar may push the euro and other currencies to appreciate passively, thereby suppressing inflation levels in related regions and ultimately forcing the European Central Bank and others to "cut rates reluctantly."

Howard Marks warns: Further Fed rate cuts will have little significance. Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, warned that these "interventions" by the Federal Reserve in "capital costs" will force people to shift to higher-risk investments as the return environment turns moderate. But he dislikes doing so unless the terms are highly attractive. Current interest rates are already low enough, and further cuts will be meaningless.

Big short Burry warns: Fed's RMP is intended to cover up the fragility of the banking system, essentially restarting QE. Michael Burry warned that the Federal Reserve is disguisedly restarting QE in the name of "Reserve Management Purchases (RMP)," exposing that the banking system still relies on central bank liquidity to "survive." Although the Federal Reserve emphasizes that RMP is only a technical operation, the market has regarded it as a dovish signal. Persistent volatility in the repo market and increased term spread fluctuations have intensified concerns about year-end funding tightening, highlighting the underlying fragility of the system.

Fed restarting QE? RMP is here! The market wants to relive the "good memories of 2019." The Federal Reserve announced that it will start purchasing short-term U.S. Treasury bonds as needed, and the New York Fed simultaneously announced plans to buy $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds in the next 30 days. Although RMP is not QE, the market doesn't care. Bank of America stated that based on the experience in 2019, liquidity injection will quickly push down the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), while the Federal Funds Rate (FF) will react relatively lagged. This "time gap" will create significant arbitrage space for investors.

Facing collective pressure from automakers, the EU delayed the release of the new "70% European-made" regulation, which BMW criticized as "extremely dangerous." In response to collective warnings from automotive giants such as BMW that the new regulation is "extremely dangerous," the EU was forced to postpone the release of the stringent local procurement new regulation originally scheduled for this week, which intends to require a maximum of 70% European manufacturing. This policy has triggered a serious industrial chain division in Europe: automakers are worried about supply chain disruptions and soaring costs, while component and new energy enterprises regard it as an important means to protect the industry and investment.

Deutsche Bank summarizes six major tech hardware trading themes for 2026: memory shortage, accelerated penetration of optoelectronics, and return of edge AI. Deutsche Bank believes that memory shortage, AI squeezing mainstream components, accelerated penetration of optoelectronics, advanced packaging and testing upgrades, 800V power architecture reform, and return to growth of edge AI will become the six core themes of the European tech hardware industry in 2026. DRAM and NAND prices have soared and will continue to rise until 2027. AI demand has pushed up investment in testing and packaging. Photonic technology in data centers is accelerating its popularization. The 800V architecture is reshaping the power device pattern. Lightweight applications of edge AI have opened a new round of growth cycle.

## Domestic Companies

PJT is contacting Vanke's U.S. dollar bondholders: Calling for the establishment of a creditor group to proactively negotiate with the company on debt management. According to The Paper, Vanke's overseas assets, keepwell agreements, and potential liquidation in the event of a default will all become negotiation chips for overseas creditors. PJT Partners also suggested that holders proactively negotiate with Vanke to convert bonds into Vanke's H-shares at a preset premium, or upgrade from unsecured creditors to secured creditors, accepting principal reduction in exchange for higher recovery certainty and priority.

MEGA Threads is unstoppable: Soaring 723% in 5 days after listing, only 60 yuan away from the 1,000-yuan stock! MEGA Threads' stock price surged to 941 yuan just five trading days after listing, with a cumulative increase of over 700% and a market value exceeding 440 billion yuan. Based on the issue price of 114.28 yuan, the floating profit per lot has exceeded 410,000 yuan. Although its fundamentals are still in the stage of high investment and losses, capital has continued to push up the stock price amid expectations of the rise of AI and domestic computing power, with sentiment dominating the trend.

The "hottest Chinese concept ETF" is listed in Hong Kong. The CSI China Internet ETF co-launched by ICBC Credit Suisse and Jinrui Fund was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Thursday, becoming Asia's first product directly benchmarking the globally renowned China Internet ETF (KWEB). KWEB is the world's largest China ETF listed in the U.S. The newly listed product tracks the same index as the U.S.-managed KWEB ETF, with basically the same product design.

# Overseas Macroeconomics

The Wednesday resolution revealed a large number of "silent dissenting votes," and the Fed's division is far beyond market expectations. Although Powell pushed for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, divisions within the central bank are increasingly intensifying. In addition to formal dissenting votes, the dot plot shows that six policymakers (mostly non-voting members) opposed this rate cut, known as "silent dissenting votes." Furthermore, more than half of the regional Fed boards composed of business leaders recommended maintaining interest rates unchanged. The divisions indicate that future policy predictability will decrease, posing significant challenges to the next Federal Reserve Chair.

The Trump administration plans to expand corporate tax R&D deductions, benefiting Salesforce, Qualcomm, and others. The U.S. Treasury Department is preparing to issue a corporate tax "workaround" that will bring substantial tax savings to companies such as Salesforce and Qualcomm. The 15% corporate minimum tax introduced during the Biden administration (applicable to companies with annual revenue of at least $1 billion) prevents enterprises from fully claiming these R&D deductions.

Yellen proposes reforming the Financial Stability Oversight Council, potentially shifting toward a more relaxed and liberalized approach. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has proposed changing the regulatory direction of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, moving from strengthening regulation to promoting a more relaxed regulatory environment. She believes that excessive regulation may affect economic growth and financial stability. A working group will also be established to focus on assessing the role and potential risks of artificial intelligence in enhancing financial resilience.

JPMorgan Chase: Labor force could be America's biggest national security threat. JPMorgan Chase pointed out in its latest report that 40% of U.S. adults lack basic digital skills. This report provides new supporting evidence for the bank's recently announced $1.5 trillion U.S. investment plan. The report defines labor shortages as a U.S. national security threat, not just an economic issue, and emphasizes that without a talent pipeline, no amount of capital investment in key industries such as AI and energy can truly be effective.

U.S. and Ukraine hold first meeting to discuss "post-war reconstruction"; U.S. and Europe compete for the "trillion-dollar pie"; Wall Street wants to build a data center near Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant. Discussions on Ukraine's post-war reconstruction plan have started, and U.S.-European differences have become public. The U.S. proposes using $200 billion in frozen Russian assets, led by Wall Street, plans to build a data center near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and resume energy trade with Russia, with the fund pool expected to expand to $800 billion. The EU insists on using frozen assets to support the Ukrainian government in purchasing weapons, strongly opposes U.S.-Russian energy cooperation, calling it an "economic Yalta Conference."

Japanese bond yields soar, but insiders say the Bank of Japan has no intention of intervening—will not rescue the market unless there is panic! According to reports, insiders at the Bank of Japan revealed that although the 10-year government bond yield has soared to an 18-year high of 1.97%, approaching the 2% mark, the central bank has no intention of emergency intervention for the time being. Policymakers have set a high threshold: they will only act in the event of panic selling inconsistent with fundamentals. The central bank is worried that intervention will send the wrong signal and affect the process of policy normalization.

Swiss National Bank keeps interest rates at zero for the second consecutive time and lowers inflation expectations. The Swiss National Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at zero on Thursday, in line with market expectations, marking the second consecutive pause. The bank simultaneously lowered its inflation expectations for 2026-2027, noting that recent inflation has continued to be lower than predicted, with a strong exchange rate and external economic pressures weighing on prices. The governor stated that monetary policy will support a gradual recovery of inflation, and the threshold for returning to negative interest rates is extremely high.

OPEC+ pauses production increase and demand improves; IEA lowers crude oil surplus expectation for the first time since May. The IEA lowered the 2026 surplus from 4.046 million barrels per day to 3.815 million barrels per day. The main reasons include OPEC+'s suspension of production increase plans, reduced output from member countries such as Russia, and a recovery in demand driven by improved macroeconomic conditions. The IEA raised its forecast for global oil consumption growth in 2025 to 830,000 barrels per day, with demand reaching a record 103.9 million barrels per day.

# Overseas Companies

Wall Street comments on Oracle's earnings report: Seemingly exceeding expectations, but profits are "bloated"; investment logic has shifted from "watching orders" to "watching fulfillment." Oracle's earnings report has sparked heated discussions on Wall Street: although non-GAAP EPS significantly exceeded expectations and the backlog of orders hit a new high of $523 billion, real profits were "inflated" by a $2.7 billion one-time gain, putting pressure on core profitability and cash flow. Order growth cannot hide conversion anxiety, cloud business growth is lower than expected, and a surge in capital expenditures has led to negative free cash flow. After the earnings report, the stock price plummeted 10%, UBS and Bank of America lowered their target prices, Morgan Stanley put the rating under review, and market focus has shifted to profit quality and order fulfillment.

Did massive spending crash the stock price? Oracle's conference call makes emergency damage control: "Customer-owned chips" will save cash flow, "We are not borrowing frantically." Although Oracle holds a backlog of over $500 billion in orders, Wall Street was frightened by the $15 billion additional spending plan. The company launched an "unprecedented" new model: instead of cloud vendors fully purchasing hardware, customers (such as OpenAI) will bring their own chips. Company executives are eager to prove that "we don't need to borrow as frantically as you think."

The most downloaded app on the App Store this year: ChatGPT. Data shows that OpenAI's ChatGPT has surpassed TikTok, Instagram, and Google Maps for the first time to top the U.S. iPhone free app download list. This may indicate that AI has deeply penetrated users' daily lives and is gradually replacing traditional search engines as the preferred portal for people to obtain information.

The strongest storage price increase cycle in history? UBS: DDR is expected to rise 35% quarter-on-quarter, NAND shortage to last at least until Q3 next year. UBS data shows that the storage industry is facing an unprecedented tight supply-demand situation. For DRAM, the supply shortage is expected to last until the first quarter of 2027, with DDR demand growing by 20.7%, far exceeding supply growth. The NAND shortage is expected to continue until the third quarter of 2026. UBS predicts that DDR contract pricing will rise by 35% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, and NAND prices will increase by 20%, with this round of price increases far exceeding previous expectations.

Has "space data center" become a must-win battleground for AI? Musk and Bezos clash, Altman also wants to join. Musk's SpaceX and Bezos' Blue Origin are competing to develop orbital AI data centers, planning to use their respective heavy rockets to send AI computing power into orbit to solve the huge energy consumption problem on the ground. Giants such as OpenAI and Google have also entered the field. Although space data centers have theoretical advantages of using solar energy and simplified cooling, they still face enormous technical, cost, and scaling challenges.

Google DeepMind announces establishment of first "automated research laboratory" in the UK, potentially conducting AI research in nuclear fusion and other fields. DeepMind announced that it will establish the first automated research laboratory in the UK, using AI and robots to accelerate materials science experiments, which may be expanded to nuclear fusion research. British scientists will gain priority access to advanced AI tools, deepening government-industry cooperation. This project aligns with the wave of tens of billions of dollars in investment by tech giants in the UK, consolidating Britain's strategic position in the global AI R&D landscape.

Novo Nordisk experiences worst year in history, plummeting 50% in 2025; the "weight-loss drug craze" seems to have never happened. Due to poor clinical trial results, multiple profit warnings, and fierce market competition, Novo Nordisk has experienced its worst-performing year ever, with its stock price plummeting more than 50% during the year, almost erasing the amazing gains since Wegovy was approved for weight loss treatment in 2021. Investors are worried that as the patent for the main compound of semaglutide expires in the U.S. in 2032, the source of the company's future sales growth is uncertain.

Birth of the strongest weight-loss drug in history? Lilly's "triple G" weight-loss drug achieves an average weight loss of 23.7%, exceeding expectations, and can also relieve knee pain. Clinical trials of Lilly's new weight-loss drug retatrutide show that patients in the highest dose group achieved an average weight loss of 23.7% within 68 weeks, exceeding Wall Street expectations. At the same time, it reduced knee osteoarthritis pain by 62.6%, and more than one-eighth of patients were completely free of knee pain. Lilly is betting that this drug will become a new growth pillar in the $100 billion weight-loss market and expects to release more clinical data by the end of 2026.

# Industries/Concepts

## 1. Unified National Market

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10 to 11. The conference pointed out that we should adhere to reform and tackle tough problems to enhance the momentum and vitality of high-quality development. Formulate regulations for the construction of a unified national market and thoroughly rectify "involutionary" competition. Formulate and implement plans to further deepen the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, and improve supporting laws, regulations, and policies for the Private Economy Promotion Law. Step up efforts to clear up arrears owed to enterprises. Promote the win-win development of platform enterprises, operators on the platform, and workers. Expand pilot projects for the market-oriented reform of factors of production. Improve the local tax system. Further promote the reduction in quantity and improvement in quality of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and continuously deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market.

**Comment**: Analysts believe that the construction of a unified national market is currently in a critical period of "in-depth advancement." Especially against the background of the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, this is no longer just a policy slogan but is being implemented into a substantive economic engine through specific tenders, infrastructure connectivity, and institutional breakthroughs. In the next 3-5 years, the construction of a unified national market will release enormous "institutional dividends" and "efficiency dividends." The core of the current construction of a unified national market lies in "removing blockages" and "reducing costs and increasing efficiency." With the accelerated advancement of the unified national market, companies in related fields such as improved efficiency in circulation links and cross-regional operation resource integration are expected to continue to benefit.

## 2. Robotics

According to China Business Network, on December 11, the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center released the country's first fully autonomous unmanned humanoid robot tour guide solution. Supported by the "Huisikaiwu" general embodied intelligence platform, the solution deeply integrates key capabilities such as fully autonomous tour guiding, anthropomorphic interaction, multi-machine scheduling, and global IoT linkage, and can cover multiple scenarios including exhibition hall tours, mall shopping guides, business explanations, and cultural and tourist attractions.

**Comment**: Analysts believe that the core of the embodied robot's realization of "fully autonomous" tour guiding is the "perception-decision-execution" full-link closed-loop technology system built by the "Huisikaiwu" platform. Relying on an embodied "brain" driven by large AI models, an embodied "small brain" driven by data, and a multi-modal fusion perception system, the three cooperate to make the robot completely free from manual remote control and realize independent operation throughout the tour guide process. With data iteration, model optimization, and the advancement of an open ecosystem, the platform is expected to accelerate its implementation in a wide range of scenarios such as industrial inspection, intelligent manufacturing, scientific research, and logistics sorting, empowering the comprehensive intelligent upgrading of the robotics industry.

## 3. Communications

According to Beijing Business Daily, on December 10, Huawei, Alipay, and China Mobile Internet officially signed a cooperation agreement to jointly launch an intelligent communication era of "Telephony as a Service." This cooperation marks that the three parties will deepen the joint innovation of AI+5G new call DC ecological scenarios and promote the evolution of traditional calls towards intelligence and service orientation. Among them, China Mobile Internet will rely on China Mobile's nationwide 5G new call network and large user base to provide stable and reliable communication guarantees and product operations; Alipay will integrate its rich digital life ecological capabilities to jointly create intelligent service scenarios; Huawei will provide leading communication technology solutions and extensive terminal adaptation support. The three parties aim to jointly build an open, intelligent, and secure new call service platform.

**Comment**: Analysts say that "Telephony as a Service (TaaS)" is a paradigm shift in the communications industry. Through the in-depth integration of AI and 5G technologies, traditional calls are upgraded from simple information transmission to an intelligent portal integrating communication, information, transactions, and services. Users can complete various needs such as life services, medical consultations, and business handling with just one call. This will not only reshape the basic call experience but also inject new impetus into building an inclusive and accessible digital society, allowing communication services to truly upgrade from a "voice portal" to a "business portal" in the AI era. The national "5G Large-Scale Application 'Sailing' Action Upgrade Plan (2025-2027)" clearly proposes promoting the innovative development of applications such as 5G new calls. It is expected that by the end of 2025, more than 70 terminal types will support the DC call assistant function, covering mainstream brands, with terminal coverage exceeding 1.1 billion units.

## 4. UAVs

According to China News Network, it was learned from Aviation Industry Corporation of China that the "Jiutian" UAV successfully completed its maiden flight in Pucheng, Shaanxi. As a large-scale general-purpose UAV platform independently innovated in China, this model adopts the design concept of "general platform + modular mission payload." Relying on independent integrated technological innovation, it has core advantages such as large load capacity, high ceiling, wide speed range, and short takeoff and landing. It has a length of 16.35 meters, a wingspan of 25 meters, a maximum takeoff weight of 16 tons, a load capacity of 6,000 kilograms, an endurance of 12 hours, and a ferry range of 7,000 kilometers. Its performance indicators are among the top in similar products.

**Comment**: Analysts believe that the "Jiutian" UAV is not an upgrade of ordinary UAVs but the world's first large-scale unmanned swarm mothership. Its technological innovation and scarcity have no similar products globally, making it a "generational leading" breakthrough. In the future, with the delivery of the first batch of military orders in 2025, the landing of civil logistics scenarios in 2026, and the release of international orders in 2027, "Jiutian" will gradually realize the market value of its technological advantages, becoming a core symbol of China's UAV industry "leading the way" and reshaping the competitive pattern of the global aerospace economy.

## 5. Memory Chips

According to National Business Daily, since the fourth quarter, due to the sharp rise in upstream resource prices and the overall limited supply, memory manufacturers have strictly controlled the number of orders for mass-market customers based on price orientation, in addition to giving priority to meeting the supply of core customers. Some price-sensitive consumer customers are unable to accept high-priced memory products, and the overall market turnover has shrunk significantly compared with the third quarter. Overall, the activity of the memory spot market is limited. From the resource side, the cumulative quarter-on-quarter increase in the price of spot NAND resources with a capacity of 512Gb and above in Q4 generally exceeds 100%. Since the fourth quarter, channel SSD prices have risen sharply across the board. Up to now, channel SSD prices have generally increased by 150%, and even some capacity products have increased by more than 200%.

**Comment**: A memory module manufacturer revealed that the current NAND shortage is far more serious than before. Many peers only have inventory to last until the first quarter of 2026. Some manufacturers will have no goods to deliver starting from March, and the shortage will become a comprehensive phenomenon after the second quarter. NAND quotation prices are rising too fast. Micron's recent NAND quotes have increased by nearly 50% month-on-month. Module manufacturers are worried that the original factory will adjust prices again before shipment, leading to cost inversion, so they can only accept orders through the Open Order (floating quotation) method.

## 6. Controlled Nuclear Fusion

According to grassroots research by securities firms, following Hefei's BEST project, several new projects such as Jiangxi's "Xinghuo No.1" and Chengdu's "Xianjue" have been confirmed to start preliminary bidding within the year. This marks that the development of controlled nuclear fusion is entering a new industrialization stage where multiple projects in various regions are successively launched, bringing clearer and sustained demand to the entire industrial chain.

**Comment**: Everbright Securities believes that the controlled nuclear fusion industry has entered an intensive bidding period, and industrial capital expenditure is expected to continue to expand. Recently, there have been frequent large-scale bids in the fusion industry. In addition to the over 2 billion yuan procurement project released by Fusion New Energy Company this time, the Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Hefei Institute of Physical Science has recently released procurement projects with a total budget of over 1.3 billion yuan. With the steady progress of multiple projects in the fusion industry and the continuous release of new routes and projects, the industry has entered an intensive bidding and tendering period. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow-up progress of projects such as the BEST project, "Xinghuo No.1," "China Circulation No.4," and CFEDR. Overseas, the FIA (Fusion Industry Association) released a report, investing 10 billion US dollars in nuclear fusion to ensure the future of U.S. energy and AI and accelerate the development of the nuclear fusion industry.

### 7. Tungsten  

On December 11, data from Baichuan Yingfu showed that prices of domestic tungsten series products rose. Among them, prices of tungsten powder, tungsten materials, and sodium tungstate increased by 2.35%, 2.2%, and 2% respectively compared with December 10.  

**Comment**: Guoyuan Securities believes that on the supply side, global reserves have gradually increased in recent years, while China has implemented total mining control, leading to a sustained tightening of domestic tungsten supply in the future. On the demand side, downstream demand is booming across multiple sectors, which is expected to continuously drive growth in tungsten demand. The improved supply-demand dynamics in the tungsten industry may support tungsten prices to remain at a high level. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) notes that domestic supply remains tight due to factors such as declining ore grade and stricter regulatory standards. Overseas, except for Kazakhstan, incremental supply faces high uncertainty and slow expansion. Global tungsten supply is expected to stay tight over the next 3-5 years, driving the central level of tungsten prices to continue rising.  

### Today's Key Events Preview  

- Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, Cleveland, and Philadelphia deliver speeches.  

- November CPI data for Germany and France.  

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