Fasanara Digital vs. Glassnode: Institutional Market Outlook Q4 2025

Authored by: Glassnode  

Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News  

Against the backdrop of the current market correction and macroeconomic pressures, we have jointly released a collaborative report with Fasanara Digital. This report analyzes the evolving trends of core ecosystem infrastructure in the fourth quarter, including spot liquidity, ETF capital flows, stablecoins, tokenized assets, and decentralized perpetual contracts.  

Digital assets are in one of the most structurally critical phases of this cycle. Driven by deep spot liquidity, historic capital inflows, and demand for regulated ETFs, Bitcoin has moved beyond the expansion phase of the past three years. The market’s focus has shifted: capital flows are becoming more concentrated, trading venues are growing increasingly mature, and derivatives infrastructure is demonstrating greater resilience amid volatility.  

Drawing on Glassnode’s data insights and Fasanara’s trading perspective, this report outlines the evolution of market structure in 2025. We focus on analyzing the liquidity restructuring in the spot, ETF, and futures markets, changes in the scale of the leverage cycle, and how stablecoins, tokenization, and off-chain settlement are reshaping capital flows. Together, these trends paint a market architecture that is significantly different from previous cycles and continues to evolve. Below is a summary of the core content:  

## Core Highlights

- Bitcoin has attracted over **$732 billion in new capital**—a scale exceeding the total of all previous cycles. This has driven its realized market capitalization to approximately **$1.1 trillion**, with its price rising by more than **690%** during the period.  

- Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has nearly halved, dropping from **84% to 43%**—reflecting the continuous improvement in market depth and institutional participation.  

- Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin’s total settlement value has been approximately **$6.9 trillion**, which is equal to or higher than the quarterly transaction volumes of traditional payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard. While on-chain activity has shifted as trading moves to ETFs and brokers, Bitcoin and stablecoins still dominate on-chain settlements.  

- The daily trading volume of ETFs has grown from a baseline of less than **$1 billion** to more than **$5 billion**, with a peak daily volume exceeding **$9 billion** (e.g., after the deleveraging event on October 10).  

- The scale of tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) has grown from **$7 billion to $24 billion** in one year. With low correlation to traditional crypto assets, RWAs help improve the stability and capital efficiency of DeFi.  

- The decentralized perpetual contract market has experienced explosive and sustained growth: DEXs’ share of the perpetual contract market has risen from approximately **10% to 16–20%**, with monthly trading volume exceeding **$1 trillion**.  

- Venture capital activity remains closely tied to the altcoin cycle, focusing primarily on mature and high-profile areas such as exchanges, core infrastructure, and scaling solutions.  

## This Cycle is Led by Bitcoin, Driven by Spot Markets, and Backed by Institutional Capital

Bitcoin’s market share is approaching **60%**, indicating a shift of capital back to high-liquidity mainstream assets, while altcoins have corrected accordingly. Since November 2022, Bitcoin’s share has risen from **38.7% to 58.3%**, while Ethereum’s share has fallen to **12.1%**—continuing the trend of underperforming Bitcoin since its Merge in 2022.  

From the cycle’s low to its high, Bitcoin has attracted **$732 billion in new capital**—surpassing the total of all previous cycles combined. Ethereum and other altcoins have also performed strongly, with maximum gains exceeding **350%**, but they have not outperformed Bitcoin as they did in previous cycles. 

# English Translation

## Liquidity Deepens and Long-Term Volatility Declines, Yet Leverage Shocks Persist  

The structural strength of the Bitcoin market has significantly enhanced. Its daily spot trading volume has increased from $4 billion–$13 billion in the previous cycle to the current $8 billion–$22 billion. Long-term volatility has continued to decline, with the 1-year realized volatility dropping from 84.4% to 43.0%. Meanwhile, the open interest of Bitcoin futures has hit a record high of $67.9 billion, among which CME accounts for approximately 30%—a clear sign of substantial institutional participation.  

## On-Chain Activity Shifts Off-Chain, but Bitcoin and Stablecoins Remain the Mainstay of On-Chain Settlements  

After the approval of U.S. spot ETFs, the number of daily active entities on the Bitcoin chain has decreased from around 240,000 to 170,000. This mainly reflects the shift of activity to brokers and ETF platforms, rather than a shrinkage in network usage. Despite this migration, Bitcoin still settled approximately $6.9 trillion in value over the past 90 days, which is comparable to the quarterly transaction volumes of mainstream payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard. After entity adjustment by Glassnode, the actual economic settlement volume still reaches about $870 billion per quarter, equivalent to $7.8 billion per day.  

At the same time, stablecoins continue to provide liquidity support for the entire digital asset ecosystem. The total supply of the top five stablecoins has reached a record high of $263 billion. The combined average daily transfer volume of USDT and USDC is approximately $225 billion, with USDC showing a significantly higher circulation speed—indicating that it is more widely used for institutional and DeFi-related capital flows.  

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## Tokenized Assets Are Expanding Market Financial Infrastructure  

Over the past year, the scale of tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) has grown significantly from $7 billion to $24 billion. Ethereum remains the primary settlement layer for such assets, currently hosting approximately $11.5 billion worth of these assets. BUIDL, the largest single product launched by BlackRock, has grown to $2.3 billion, with its scale increasing by more than four times within the year.  

As capital continues to flow in, tokenized funds have become one of the fastest-growing asset classes, opening up new distribution channels for asset management institutions. This reflects the expanding scope of asset tokenization on the chain and the growing acceptance of tokenization by institutions as a distribution and liquidity channel.  

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