Trading moment: Bitcoin’s rebound faces the test of the intensive supply zone of $93,000-96,000

# Daily Market Key Data Review and Trend Analysis

Produced by PANews

## 1. Market Observation

On November 27, U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, with U.S. stock index futures trading flat. Crude oil rebounded as OPEC+ extended its production cut policy but experienced an intraday flash crash amid prospects of Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Spot gold, boosted by expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, briefly breached $4,190. Institutions including Wells Fargo Investment Institute analyzed that the Fed's potential dovish pivot, a weaker U.S. dollar, and shifts in investment logic for hot sectors like AI may create favorable conditions for alternative assets such as gold. Looking ahead, despite market concerns about economic slowdown, expectations of a policy shift also bring potential opportunities for risk assets. Global investors are closely monitoring the Fed's next moves and the potential reshaping of the market structure.

As November draws to a close, Bitcoin's price rose to nearly $92,000 after volatility. Multiple analysts pointed out that the rebound is mainly driven by short covering rather than strong spot buying. For example, KillaXBT has initiated short positions at $91,400, planning to add to positions at $93,100 with a stop-loss at $95,000. He warned that if the closing price fails to break through $108,000 in the next four weeks, a bear market will be confirmed, with a target price potentially falling to $60,000. Additionally, data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin's market structure remains fragile. The cost basis of short-term holders (around $104,600) has become a key resistance level, with dense supply zones between $93,000-$96,000 and $100,000-$108,000. If liquidity fails to improve, Bitcoin's price may further decline to around the "real market average" of $81,000. Key support needs to hold above the $84,000 cost cluster, which involves approximately 400,000 BTC. Analyst Ali regards $84,570 as a critical support level and $112,340 as the upper limit, while reminding that a bear market phase could bring a 70% drop.

Despite headwinds, bullish views persist. Veteran trader Alessio Rastani stated that historical data indicates a 75% probability of a short-term rally in the current pattern. Analysts such as Michaël van de Poppe and Daan Crypto Trades are focusing on the liquidity concentration zone of $97,000-$98,000, believing that a break above resistance around $93,000 could push the price toward $100,000. Man of Bitcoin also noted that a firm hold above $91,521 may lead to a test of $96,897. Overall, the market is waiting for clearer signals, and sustained spot demand and increased buying power are needed to confirm a structural recovery in the trend.

For Ethereum, although the price has rebounded 15% from its low of $2,623 to briefly stand above $3,000, on-chain and derivatives data show that bullish sentiment among large investors has not fully recovered, making it more difficult for the price to challenge $4,000. Currently, Ethereum's network TVL has dropped from nearly $100 billion to $72.3 billion, network fees have fallen 13% in the past week, and the long-short ratio of top traders on OKX indicates a bearish bias. Analysts have mixed views: Scient believes Ethereum's structure is stronger than Bitcoin's, and a hold above $2,800 support could pave the way for a test of $3,390; while Ken, an analyst at Lab Trading, warned that failure to effectively hold above $3,000 may lead to a decline to $2,600. Meanwhile, Kingpin Crypto expects an "Ethereum Santa Claus rally" in December, targeting the $3,300 range. Daan Crypto Trades advises investors to focus on the $2,600-$3,000 range fluctuation: a break above $3,000 may test $3,300-$3,400, while a breakdown below $2,600 could drop to the $2,000 low. Additionally, Simon Kim, founder of venture capital firm Hashed, recently launched a real-time Ethereum valuation dashboard, which estimates Ethereum's fair value at $4,747.4, representing an undervaluation of approximately 56.9% compared to the current price of $3,022.3.

In market dynamics, the hack of South Korean crypto exchange Upbit on November 27 has become a recent focus. The attack resulted in the theft of approximately 54 billion won (about $36.81 million) worth of Solana network-related assets, including SOL, JUP, PYTH, RENDER, and other tokens. South Korean authorities strongly suspect the North Korean hacking group Lazarus Group, which is also alleged to be linked to the Ethereum theft from Upbit six years ago. Following the incident, the prices of some affected low-cap Solana ecosystem tokens on Upbit surged, with ORCA and MET2 rising nearly 100% at one point. Upbit has suspended all deposit and withdrawal services, transferred assets to cold wallets, and promised to fully compensate users for losses.

## 2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on November 26)

(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

- Bitcoin: $91,318 (YTD: -2.43%), daily spot trading volume: $51.63 billion

- Ethereum: $3,010 (YTD: -9.82%), daily spot trading volume: $14.54 billion

- Fear & Greed Index: 25 (Fear)

- Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei

- Market Share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 11.5%

- Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: ORCA, XRP, BTC, MET2, TRUST

- 24-Hour BTC Long-Short Ratio: 49.37% / 50.63%

- Sector Performance: Meme sector down 2.78%, L1 sector down 1.87%

- 24-Hour Liquidation Data: 76,060 global liquidations, total liquidation value of $123 million (BTC: $23.42 million, ZEC: $20.13 million, ETH: $15.09 million)

## 3. ETF Flows (as of November 27)

- Bitcoin ETFs: Closed for Thanksgiving

- Ethereum ETFs: Closed for Thanksgiving

- Solana ETFs: Closed for Thanksgiving

## 4. Today's Preview

- China Universal Hong Kong Dollar Digital Currency Fund will list and trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 28.

- Binance will remove spot trading pairs BMT/FDUSD, GMT/BTC, ME/BTC, and TOWNS/FDUSD on November 28.

- Binance will delist PONKE, SWELL, and QUICK USDT perpetual contracts.

- ETH Strategy will launch a 2-month linear unlock of STRAT on November 29 and is set to launch a lending product.

- Binance Alpha will list GaiAi (GAIX) on November 29.

- Hyperliquid will conduct its first unlock of $308 million worth of HYPE on November 29, accounting for 2.66% of the circulating supply.

- Sentient airdrop registration is now open, with eligibility confirmation closing at midnight on November 30 (GMT+8).

- Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens (0.76% of total supply, worth about $12.5 million) at 12:00 PM (GMT+8) on November 28.

- Sahara AI (SAHARA) unlocked approximately 133 million tokens (1.33% of total supply, worth about $10.4 million) at 8:00 AM (GMT+8) on November 27.

- Top 100 Cryptocurrencies by Market Cap - Biggest 24-Hour Declines: MemeCore (-21.4%), Kaspa (-8.5%), Dash (-7.9%), SPX6900 (-7.5%), Zcash (-7.3%).

## 5. Hot News

- Animoca Executive: Plans to expand business focus to stablecoins, AI, and DePIN in 2026.

- MegaETH: Will refund all funds raised through the pre-deposit bridge and is auditing new smart contracts.

- Data: BTC whale inflows to Binance reached $7.5 billion in the past 30 days, the highest level in a year.

- Wormhole Foundation Announces Purchase of $5 Million Worth of W Tokens.

- Infinex will launch token presale on Sonar, distributing 5% of INX tokens to raise $15 million before TGE in January.

- Tom Lee reportedly no longer insists on his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year.

- SpaceX has transferred 1,163 BTC to a new address, worth approximately $105 million.

- IBIT holdings of BlackRock's SIO Fund have increased to 2.39 million shares, a quarterly increase of about 14%.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article only represent the personal views of the author and do not constitute investment advice from this platform. This platform does not make any guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, originality, and timeliness of the information in the article. Nor does it assume any liability for any losses arising from the use of or reliance on the information in the article.