Bitwise: Bitcoin is experiencing its IPO moment, sideways or even falling may be a

# Bitcoin's Consolidation Signals Its IPO Moment – Here's Why BTC Allocation Ratios Are Poised to Rise  

By Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise; Compiled by Jinse Finance  

Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation indicates that its "IPO moment" has arrived – and this is why the allocation ratio for BTC is expected to increase.  

Jordi Visser is one of my most admired macro thinkers, and I read every article he publishes.  

His latest piece (see Jinse Finance’s previous coverage "Bitcoin’s Silent IPO") explores a core question: Despite a steady stream of positive news – strong ETF inflows, breakthroughs in regulation, and sustained growth in institutional demand – why has Bitcoin frustratingly been stuck in a sideways, even oscillating downward, trading range?  

This is the most insightful analysis of the current state of the Bitcoin market I have read in the past six months, and I highly recommend you give it a look.  

Visser argues that Bitcoin is undergoing a "silent IPO," transforming from a wild idea into a mainstream success story. He points out that when stocks complete their IPOs, they typically consolidate for 6 to 18 months before embarking on an upward trend.  

Take Facebook (now Meta) as an example: It went public on May 12, 2012, at $38 per share. Over the next year or more, its stock price remained range-bound and even declined, only reclaiming its $38 IPO price 15 months later. Google (Alphabet) and other high-profile tech startups followed a similar trajectory.  

Visser notes that sideways volatility does not necessarily mean there is a problem with the asset itself. More often than not, this occurs because founders and early employees cash out – those who took risks when the startup was highly uncertain now reap 100x returns and naturally want to lock in profits. The process of insiders selling and institutions taking over takes time; only when this ownership transfer reaches a certain balance can the stock price resume its upward path.  

Visser points out that this is remarkably similar to Bitcoin’s current situation. Early believers who bought Bitcoin when it was $1, $10, $100, or even $1,000 now hold wealth of generational proportions. As Bitcoin enters the mainstream – with ETFs trading on the New York Stock Exchange, large corporations building Bitcoin reserves, and sovereign wealth funds entering the market – these investors can finally cash in their returns.  

Kudos to them! Their patience has been handsomely rewarded. Five years ago, if someone sold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, it would likely have thrown the market into chaos; today, however, a diversified base of buyers and sufficient trading volume can absorb such large-scale transactions more smoothly.  

It is important to note that on-chain data shows the composition of sellers is complex. Thus, Visser’s analysis is only part of the current market drivers – but it is a crucial part, and we should reflect on its implications for the future market.  

Below are two core insights I extracted from this article:  

## Insight 1: Significant Bullish Potential  

Many crypto investors felt discouraged after reading Visser’s article: "Early OGs are selling Bitcoin to institutions! Do they know something we don’t?"  

This interpretation is completely wrong.  

Early investors selling does not mean an asset’s journey is ending – it merely marks the start of a new phase.  

Look again at Facebook: Admittedly, its stock price traded below $38 for a year after its IPO, but today it has risen to $637, a staggering 1,576% increase. Looking back to 2012, I would have jumped at the chance to buy all Facebook shares at $38 each.  

Of course, investing in Facebook’s Series A round might have yielded even higher returns – but it also came with far greater risks.  

The same logic applies to Bitcoin today. In the future, it may be difficult to see Bitcoin deliver 100x returns in a single year, but once this "chip transfer phase" is complete, its upside potential remains enormous. As Bitwise noted in its *Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions* report, we believe Bitcoin will reach $1.3 million per coin by 2035 – and personally, I think this forecast is still conservative.  

I would also add one key point: There is a critical difference between Bitcoin (after early OGs finish selling) and a post-IPO company – a company must continue to grow after its IPO. Facebook could not jump from $38 to $637 overnight because its revenue and profits at the time could not support such a valuation; it needed to expand revenue, develop new business lines, and push into mobile services, all while navigating risks along the way.  

Bitcoin, however, is not like that. Once early OGs finish selling, Bitcoin does not need to "do" anything else. For its market cap to grow from $2.5 trillion to a gold-level $25 trillion, the only thing it needs is widespread adoption.  

I am not saying this will happen overnight, but it is entirely possible for Bitcoin to grow faster than Facebook did.  

From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation is a "gift" – an excellent opportunity to accumulate more positions before it resumes its upward trend.  

## Insight 2: The Era of 1% Bitcoin Allocation Is Over  

As Visser stated in his article, a company that has completed its IPO carries far less risk than it did in its startup phase. Its ownership is more widely distributed, it is subject to stricter regulation, and it has more opportunities for business diversification. Investing in post-IPO Facebook was far less risky than funding a college dropout operating out of a party house in Palo Alto.  

The same holds true for Bitcoin. As Bitcoin shifts from early adopters to institutional investors and matures as a technology, it no longer faces existential risks like it did a decade ago. Its maturity as an asset class has improved significantly – a trend clearly reflected in Bitcoin’s volatility. Since Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, its volatility has dropped sharply.  

### Bitcoin Historical Volatility  

*Image: e9RA8LhiahBL8Wuj6PeouFkONyriCehOjRm23Z8l.jpeg*  

*Source: Bitwise Asset Management; Data range: January 1, 2013 – September 30, 2025*  

This offers a key insight for investors: In the future, Bitcoin’s returns may be slightly lower than in the past, but its volatility will decrease significantly. As an asset allocator, my response to this change is not to sell – after all, we predict Bitcoin will remain one of the best-performing major asset classes globally over the next decade – but to **increase holdings**.  

In other words, lower volatility means it is safer to hold a larger position in this asset.  

Visser’s article has reinforced a trend I already observed: Over the past few months, Bitwise has held hundreds of meetings with advisors, institutions, and other professional investors – and we have found that the era of 1% Bitcoin allocation is completely over. An increasing number of investors now view 5% as the starting point for their BTC allocation.  

Bitcoin is experiencing its IPO moment. If history is any guide, we should embrace this new phase by increasing our holdings.  

## Disclaimer  

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute investment advice for this platform. This platform makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, originality, or timeliness of the information in the article, nor does it assume any liability for losses arising from the use or reliance on such information.