Morning News

### Market Overview

Trade tensions cooled, and US stocks rose for two consecutive days. The three major US stock indexes all increased by more than 1%; Apple rose nearly 4%, reaching an all - time high for the first time this year, while Nvidia fell 0.3%, the only decline among the seven major technology giants; the chip index rebounded by more than 1%, and AMD rose more than 3%; Oracle fell nearly 5%, declining against the market in two days; the United States and Australia reached a cooperation project agreement, and key mineral stocks soared. NioCorp Developments rose nearly 20%, and USA Rare Earth rose nearly 14%; Chinese - concept stocks rebounded and outperformed the market, with the Chinese - concept index rising more than 2%, and Alibaba rising nearly 4%.

Gold and silver, which plunged during trading last Friday, rebounded. Gold hit an intraday all - time high for six consecutive days, and gold futures once approached $4,400, rising more than 4%; silver rebounded, and silver futures once rose more than 3%. Crude oil fell back and did not continue to move away from the five - month low. US oil fell more than 2% during trading but erased most of the losses.

The yield on the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell back, approaching a six - month low. The US dollar index rose for two consecutive days, continuing to move away from a more than one - week low; Bitcoin rose more than 3% during trading, rising above $111,000 again.

During the Asian session, the ChiNext in A - shares rose nearly 2%, and the trading volume of the two markets was 1.75 trillion. AI computing power rebounded, and "Yizhongtian" soared; the Hang Seng Tech Index in Hong Kong rose 3%, government bonds generally fell, and "double - coke" futures strengthened. The Nikkei 225 index rose more than 3%, standing above 49,000 points for the first time in history.

### Key News

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China began to be held in Beijing.

China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%. The National Bureau of Statistics said that the growth in the first three quarters laid a solid foundation for achieving the main annual goals. China's social consumer goods retail sales in September increased by 3% year - on - year, slowing down from August. The value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year; the housing prices in 70 cities in September decreased month - on - month, and the second - and third - tier city second - hand housing prices decreased by 0.7% and 0.6% month - on - month respectively.

China's LPR quotations remained unchanged for five consecutive months: the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5% in October, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%.

The US side said that it listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded; China News Service: Customs data showed that China did not import soybeans from the United States in September.

White House economic advisor Hassett: The US government shutdown "may end sometime this week".

The Australian Prime Minister visited the White House and presented a "gift package", signing an $8.5 billion key mineral project agreement with Trump and also purchasing arms; the White House said that the US and Australia will invest more than $3 billion in key mineral projects in the next six months, and the US Department of Defense will help fund the construction of a gallium refinery in Western Australia with an annual output of 100 metric tons.

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party signed a joint - ruling document, and Sanae Takaichi is likely to become the Prime Minister of Japan and form a cabinet; the Nikkei 225 index rose more than 3%, closing above 49,000 points for the first time in history.

Vietnam once again exposed a "trillions - of - dong" real - estate mine, and the stock market plunged more than 5%, recording the largest single - day decline in six months.

Unitree released the H2 humanoid robot: it is 180 cm tall, can dance ballet, and the degree of freedom has soared to 31.

In the first hour of the Double 11 sales on Tmall, 80 brands' turnover exceeded 100 million yuan, and the turnover of the iPhone series exceeded the full - day turnover of last year.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd.'s (CATL) Q3 revenue increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and its net profit increased by 41.21% to 18.5 billion yuan.

Apple's stock price reached an all - time high for the first time this year, surpassing Microsoft in market value and rising to the second place in US stocks; institutions said that the sales of iPhone 17 in the first 10 days before the sale in China and the United States were 14% higher than the same period of the previous generation.

Amazon's AWS service suffered a large - scale outage, and thousands of users reported errors. Coinbase and Robinhood were both affected.

### Market Closing Reports

- **European and American Stocks**: The S&P 500 rose 1.07% to 6,735.13 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.12% to 46,706.58 points. The Nasdaq rose 1.37% to 22,990.543 points. The European STOXX 600 index rose 1.03% to 572.10 points.

- **A - Shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% to 3,863.89 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98% to 12,813.21 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.98% to 2,993.45 points.

- **Bond Market**: By the end of the bond market trading, the yield on the 10 - year US benchmark Treasury bond was about 3.98%, falling about 3 basis points during the day; the yield on the 2 - year US Treasury bond was about 3.46%, unchanged from last Friday.

- **Commodities**: WTI November crude oil futures closed down 0.03% at $57.52 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures closed down 0.46% at $61.01 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures closed up 3.47% at $4,359.4 per ounce. COMEX December silver futures closed up 2.55% at $51.384 per ounce.

# Detailed Key News

## Global Highlights

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) kicked off in Beijing. The General Secretary of the Central Committee delivered a work report to the plenary session on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, and also gave an explanation to the plenary session on the *Proposal of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Draft for Discussion)*.

China's GDP in the third quarter grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in the first three quarters. A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics stated that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the third quarter dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared with the second quarter. This is mainly the result of the combined effects of factors such as the complex and severe external environment and relatively high pressure from domestic structural adjustments. Internationally, the instability and uncertainty of global economic and trade growth have increased; domestically, some long-accumulated structural problems remain to be resolved.

The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics said, "Looking ahead to the next stage, we must not only recognize that economic development still faces many risks and challenges, but also be well aware that the inherent logic of China's stable economic development has not changed, the supporting conditions for the stable operation of the economy have not changed, and there are still many favorable conditions for achieving the annual expected goals." The economic growth in the first three quarters of this year was 0.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the main annual goals. From the perspective of development drivers, the new-quality productive forces represented by artificial intelligence are accelerating their transformation into real productive forces, and China's economy is embracing a new growth engine.

China's total retail sales of consumer goods in September increased by 3% year-on-year, compared with a 3.4% growth in August. The catering revenue of enterprises above the designated size in September fell by 1.6%, while it rose by 1% year-on-year in August. Yu Jianxun, Director of the Trade and Foreign Economic Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the slowdown in the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in September was affected by factors such as the reduction in holidays due to the misalignment of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Driven by a series of policies and measures to expand service consumption, the demand for service consumption has been released at an accelerated pace, strongly driving the growth of the consumer market. All regions and departments have thoroughly implemented the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones, and the retail sales of relevant commodities have achieved rapid growth.

China's value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the growth rate in August. The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry maintained a sound growth momentum. From January to September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, among which the value-added of high-tech manufacturing enterprises above the designated size rose by 9.6% year-on-year. The output of industrial robots, service robots, and EMUs increased by 29.8%, 16.3%, and 8.6% respectively.

China's national fixed asset investment (FAI) from January to September decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, while investment in the manufacturing sector grew by 4.0%. Private fixed asset investment fell by 3.1% year-on-year. In September, fixed asset investment decreased by 0.07% month-on-month.

China's national real estate development investment from January to September dropped by 13.9% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year. By the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing stood at 759.28 million square meters, a decrease of 2.41 million square meters month-on-month, marking a decline for seven consecutive months, and the inventory pressure in the industry continued to ease. The decline rates of the newly started area and the accumulated completed area of housing in the first nine months both narrowed compared with those from January to August.

GF Macro believes that one of the highlights of the third-quarter economic data is that the economic performance in the first three quarters has laid a solid foundation for achieving the annual goals, and the growth rate in the third quarter alone is also in line with expectations. Second, the industrial capacity utilization rate has improved month-on-month, especially in several key industries where the capacity situation has been bettered. Third, the industrial production in September rebounded significantly month-on-month, providing strong support for the economic data. However, the weaknesses in the data also deserve attention: first, the quarterly growth rate of residents' consumption expenditure has slowed down significantly; second, the volume and price of the real estate market have not yet stabilized; third, the decline in fixed asset investment has further expanded.

China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) quotation remained unchanged in October: the LPR for terms of more than 5 years was 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR was 3%. China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month.

China's housing prices in 70 cities in September: the sales prices of commercial housing in all tiers of cities decreased month-on-month. The month-on-month decline rates of second-hand housing prices in second-tier and third-tier cities were 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. The month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices slightly widened, with the month-on-month decline rates of second-hand housing prices in second-tier and third-tier cities both expanding by 0.1 percentage points. For new housing, the month-on-month decline rates in all tiers of cities widened, while the year-on-year decline rates continued to narrow.

The US side stated that it has listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China-US economic and trade consultations, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. According to Huanqiu.com, Guo Jiakun, Spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that China's position on handling China-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. A tariff war and a trade war are not in the interests of either side, and the two sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit.

According to China News Service, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China did not import soybeans from the United States in September this year. This is the first time that China's monthly soybean imports from the United States have dropped to zero since November 2018. Against the background of tariffs, American soybean farmers have lost "Chinese orders" during this year's soybean harvest season. At the same time, as the world's largest soybean importer, China is increasing its purchase of soybeans from South American countries to replace US soybeans.

Kevin Hassett, White House Economic Adviser: The US government shutdown "may end sometime this week". Kevin Hassett, the top economic adviser to the White House, attributed the government shutdown to Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. He said that if the shutdown continues, the White House will consider implementing "stronger measures", but did not specify what these measures might include.

Australian Prime Minister visited the White House with a "gift package", signed an $8.5 billion key mineral project agreement with Trump, and also purchased military equipment. The White House stated that the two countries will invest more than $3 billion in key mineral projects within the next six months; the US Department of Defense will help fund the construction of a high-end gallium refinery in Western Australia with an annual output of 100 metric tons; and Australia will purchase underwater drones and Apache helicopters from the US. Trump requested that Australia increase its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, but Australia has not yet agreed. Trump also said that it is unlikely to provide tariff relief to Australia.

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party signed a joint governing document. Sanae Takaichi will receive support from Komeito in the prime ministerial election to be held on Tuesday, October 21, and is highly likely to take office as Japan's Prime Minister and form a cabinet.

The Nikkei 225 Index rose by more than 3%, closing above the 49,000-point mark for the first time in history.

Vietnam was hit by another "trillion-dong" real estate crisis, with its stock market plummeting by more than 5%, marking the largest single-day decline in six months. Last Friday, a supervision report released by the Vietnamese government revealed that major commercial banks and real estate companies had serious problems such as embezzlement of funds and violations of information disclosure requirements in the issuance of corporate bonds, involving trillions of Vietnamese dong. Among them, Novaland, the second-largest real estate developer, was accused of embezzling more than 1.5 trillion Vietnamese dong, and several related companies defaulted on principal and interest payments. The case has been transferred to the local public security department.

Unitree launched the H2 humanoid robot: with a height of 180cm, capable of dancing ballet, and its degrees of freedom jumping to 31. Unitree recently released the Unitree H2 humanoid robot with a height of 180cm. This robot has 31 degrees of freedom, featuring agile and elegant movement. It can smoothly complete complex movements such as ballet and martial arts, demonstrating excellent balance and control capabilities. Analysts believe that Unitree is deepening its strategy of "full-size, full-scenario, and full-price range", accelerating product segmentation, and seizing market share.

In the first hour of the Tmall Double 11 pre-sale launch, 80 brands achieved transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, and the transaction volume of the iPhone series surpassed that of the entire day last year. At 8 p.m. on October 20, the 2025 Tmall Double 11 officially started. In the first hour of the launch, the transaction volumes of 30,516 brands doubled compared with the first day of the launch last year. The transaction volumes of single products such as AirPods 4, Apple Watch S11, iQOO15, Nintendo Switch, and Xiaomi 17 ProMax exceeded 10 million yuan in the first hour.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) achieved a 12.9% year-on-year increase in revenue in the third quarter, with net profit rising by 41.21% to 18.5 billion yuan.

Apple's stock price hit a record high for the first time this year. Apple closed up nearly 4% on Monday, surpassing Microsoft in market value and becoming the US company with the second-highest market value after NVIDIA. Research institution Counterpoint stated that in the first 10 days of sales in China and the US, Apple's two largest markets, the sales volume of the iPhone 17 series was 14% higher than that of the iPhone 16 series in the same period. The base model was popular in China, while the Pro Max had strong demand in the US. Loop Capital raised Apple's target price to $315, the highest expected level among Wall Street institutions, which means that Apple's stock price will rise by approximately 20% compared with Monday's closing price.

Apple has made a comeback, and the new iPhone has triggered the strongest smartphone replacement wave in recent years. Relying on significant upgrades in the camera, screen, and battery, the iPhone 17 is driving Apple to achieve the strongest smartphone sales growth since the pandemic, exceeding Wall Street's expectations. Data shows that the delivery time is 13% longer than in previous years, and there are long queues in stores. Analysts predict that iPhone revenue will reach $218.9 billion in fiscal year 2026, with a growth rate increasing to nearly 5%, reversing the previous two-year trend of decline or flat growth.

Amazon's AWS service suffered a large-scale outage, with thousands of users reporting errors. Coinbase and Robinhood were both affected. As the world's largest cloud service provider, AWS supports most of the Internet's infrastructure, accounting for approximately one-third of the market share. Cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase, retail investment application Robinhood, and artificial intelligence search company Perplexity all stated that their services were disrupted, and the scope of the impact may expand to games and corporate communications.

## Domestic Macroeconomics

Zhu Guangyao, former Vice Minister of Finance: China's economic growth is expected to maintain a rate of 4.5% - 5% in the next few years, and fields such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence will become important driving forces.

The weekly transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen hit a new high for a single week in nearly six months.

The transaction price per floor area in Xuhui Binjiang, Shanghai, reached 148,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record.

The China-concept tech stock ETF CQQQ attracted hundreds of millions of US dollars in funds in a single week. Last week, US investors poured $333 million into the Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ), pushing its scale to the second-highest level on record. This ETF has attracted capital inflows for eight consecutive weeks, setting the longest streak since March 2021.

## Domestic Companies

China Mobile achieved a 2.5% year-on-year increase in revenue in the third quarter, with direct AI-related revenue growing at a high speed.

IFLYTEK recorded a net profit of 170 million yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 202.40%, and its large-model orders lead the industry.

The DeepSeek team open-sourced a new model, DeepSeek-OCR: completing massive text compression with a small number of visual tokens. According to the Hugging Face page, the model has 3 billion parameters.

Alibaba's Quark is reportedly secretly carrying out the "Project C": involving conversational AI applications, which may target ByteDance's Doubao. Media reports indicate that Project C will soon launch its first new achievement. This project has been secretly advanced within Quark for a long time, and what is about to be revealed is only a phased achievement. "This is a product that requires long-term investment and relies on breakthroughs in model technology."

Cambricon: The number of shares issued to specific objects is 3,334,946, with an issuance price of 1,195.02 yuan per share.

Report: Hongguo (Red Fruit) is conducting internal testing of short video e-commerce, connecting 200 million monthly active users to Douyin E-commerce.

## Overseas Macroeconomics

"Tensions ran high" - media exposed details of the US-Ukraine presidential meeting last Friday, with Trump urging Zelenskyy to accept Russia's terms. According to reports, Trump explicitly refused to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine and urged Zelenskyy to accept Russia's peace terms, including giving up the Donbas region; otherwise, Ukraine might be "destroyed". Although the closed-door meeting was full of tensions, both Trump and Zelenskyy stated publicly after the meeting that they supported freezing the current frontline. "They should stop where they are. Let both sides declare victory!"

South Korea: Achieved "substantial progress" in tariff negotiations with the US. South Korea's top policy official stated that South Korea and the US have reached broad consensus on many issues in the tariff negotiations. However, the two sides still have differences on the structure of the $350 billion investment fund, which is the core content of the agreement that caps US tariffs on South Korean goods at 15%.

Vietnam expects its GDP to grow by 8% this year and set a target of at least 10% for next year. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told the National Assembly, "Vietnam's economy has proven to be strong enough to withstand external shocks and maintain its position as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world." He also pointed out that Vietnam's economy still faces challenges such as pressure on macroeconomic stability, fluctuations in the gold and real estate markets, air pollution, natural disasters, and cybercrime.

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett: When the US national debt reaches $38 trillion, should one buy US Treasuries, corporate bonds with spreads at a 20-year low, US stocks with a CAPE ratio of 40, or surging gold? This is a tricky question. Against the background of global central bank interest rate cuts, major assets all imply risks: US Treasuries are dragged down by huge debts, corporate bond spreads offer weak protection, US stocks have high valuations, and gold has soared sharply. Despite the many risks, the market still shows a frenzy of "buying everything", with funds pouring into tech stocks and gold. Hartnett himself continues to hold a positive view on the portfolio of bonds, international markets, and gold.

## Overseas Companies

US Antimony plans to acquire Australian miner Larvotto through an all-stock deal to strengthen key mineral businesses, with its stock price surging by 16% before the market opened. US Antimony Corporation (USAC) has submitted a non-binding all-stock acquisition proposal to Australian miner Larvotto, proposing to exchange 6 USAC shares for every 100 Larvotto shares. This proposal constitutes a significant premium for Larvotto shareholders. USAC has already acquired approximately 10% of Larvotto's shares, becoming its largest shareholder.

Did OpenAI "solve" 10 math problems? Demis Hassabis called it "embarrassing", and Yann LeCun made a pungent comment. OpenAI has been embroiled in a public relations controversy. Its researchers claimed that GPT-5 "solved" 10 reward-based math problems, but this was immediately refuted by Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, who confirmed that it was only a literature retrieval function. This incident has triggered collective questioning from industry leaders such as Yann LeCun regarding the ethics of AI promotion, exposing the dilemma faced by tech companies in balancing technological breakthroughs and market promotion.

# Industries/Concepts

1. **Robotics**: According to reports, a Chinese scientific research team has recently made a major breakthrough in the field of robot algorithms, proposing the world's first "unified theory of force-position hybrid control algorithms". This algorithm enables robots to learn both position and force control without relying on force sensors, increasing the success rate of related tasks by approximately 39.5% compared with strategies that only use position control. More notably, the relevant paper has won the Outstanding Paper Award at the International Conference on Robot Learning (ICRL) — a first for an all-Chinese scholar team since the award was established.

2. **Deep-Earth Economy**: According to the Ministry of Natural Resources of China, a relevant official from the ministry stated recently that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, efforts will be accelerated to seize the commanding heights of standardization in emerging and future industries such as deep-sea and deep-earth development. The deep-earth economy refers to the general term for economic activities and related industrial chains formed around the development of deep-earth resources, the utilization of deep underground space, etc. It covers multiple aspects including deep-earth resource development (oil, gas, minerals, etc.), deep underground space utilization, and R&D of deep-earth technologies and equipment manufacturing. Analysts said that the deep-earth economy is expected to be included in the "15th Five-Year Plan".

3. **Carbon Emissions**: According to China News Service, the Hubei Provincial Ecological and Environmental Rights Trading Platform was officially launched recently, realizing the trading of "ecological product value realization". Through scientific accounting, it assigns clear prices to clean air, clean water sources, abundant carbon sinks, and beautiful landscapes, transforming many ecological treasures into tradable "living assets". At the same time, through the innovative model of "Taobao + Canton Fair", it enables convenient online transactions and accurate offline matching. The cumulative transaction volume of the platform's carbon market has exceeded 10 billion yuan, ranking first in China.

4. **CPO (Co-packaged Optics)**: Surveys by institutional industrial chains show that the demand for 1.6T optical modules continues to rise. Major overseas customers have recently revised up their 2026 procurement plans for 1.6T optical modules, and some customers have locked in next year's production capacity in advance. The total industry demand is expected to be revised up from 10 million units to 15 million units, and further to 20 million units recently. This is mainly due to the accelerated deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 and subsequent Rubin platforms, the rapid growth in bandwidth demand for AI training and inference networks, and the entry of 1.6T products into mass production and volume release.

5. **Memory Chips**: According to reports, Sumit Sadana, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer of Micron Technology, stated recently that the supply situation of DRAM memory in 2026 will be more severe than it is now. Sumit Sadana said this is because the wafer consumption of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is approximately three times that of traditional DRAM products, and a large amount of production capacity of the three major memory original manufacturers has been invested in HBM. Additionally, the time and monetary costs required to build new DRAM wafer fabs are currently on the rise, making large-scale capacity expansion impossible in the short term.

# Preview of Today's Key News

- The Federal Reserve holds a Payment Innovation Conference to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization.

- Earnings reports from China Mobile, China Telecom, Poly Developments, and Coca-Cola.

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# Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is risky, and investment needs to be prudent. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinion, view, or conclusion in this article is consistent with their specific situation. Any investment made based on this article shall be at the user's own risk.