Make Trump happy! Can the Middle East tycoons really come up with

**Source**: Wall Street Insights  

Trump's Middle East trip was filled with dazzling numbers, as Saudi Arabia and Qatar took turns promising trillions of dollars in investments in the U.S. However, whether these astronomical investment commitments will ultimately be fulfilled is worth questioning.  

Trump's four-day Middle East tour began in Saudi Arabia. According to a White House press release, Saudi Crown Prince Salman initially pledged to increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion over four years, but Trump claimed the figure could reach $1 trillion. The crown prince also stated that Saudi Arabia would strive to push its total investment in the U.S. to $1 trillion.  

At the Saudi-U.S. Investment Summit, Trump proudly declared, "Look at those previous presidents—sometimes they couldn't secure $1 trillion in investments for years, but we basically did it in two months."  

In Qatar, Trump received an even larger package. A White House announcement stated that the agreements signed in Qatar aim to facilitate at least $1.2 trillion in "economic exchange," including a $200 billion deal for Qatar Airways to purchase 160 commercial aircraft from Boeing.  

However, are these numbers genuine commitments or merely sensational headlines to please Trump? A closer look at the details reveals a stark gap between the Gulf states' economic and fiscal capabilities and these enormous pledged figures. Saudi Arabia’s GDP is just over $1 trillion, while Qatar’s GDP is a mere $200+ billion, and oil price volatility further threatens the feasibility of these promises.  

### The Economic Reality Behind the Sky-High Promises  

Trump’s Middle East trip has俨然 (virtually) become a numbers game, with the promised amounts growing more astounding as the visit progresses. Yet, these figures contradict obvious economic realities.  

Public data shows Saudi Arabia’s GDP is just over $1 trillion, making its economy smaller than the Netherlands’. On a per capita income basis, Saudi Arabia is comparable to Portugal. Trump’s claimed $1 trillion investment is nearly equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s entire GDP, raising doubts about its feasibility.  

Qatar’s GDP is only $200+ billion, making the "$1.2 trillion" figure appear even more unrealistic.  

Moreover, oil price fluctuations are eroding these countries’ fiscal foundations. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Saudi Arabia needs an oil price of $96 per barrel to balance its budget. This means the kingdom can only maintain its comprehensive welfare system and control political discontent if oil stays at this level.  

Current crude prices are around $60, putting Saudi Arabia under fiscal strain and forcing austerity measures. If prices fall to $50 or lower, the country could face a prolonged crisis, ultimately threatening its economic model’s viability.  

### What Do the Three Gulf States Want?  

Under Trump’s transactional foreign policy, these Gulf nations have ample leverage to offer—and they each have clear objectives.  

For Saudi Arabia, the top priority is "security, security, and security." Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are seeking U.S. security commitments to stabilize the region. Last year, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia nearly finalized a landmark defense and trade agreement, but negotiations stalled after Saudi Arabia insisted that Israel commit to paving the way for a Palestinian state.  

Additionally, Saudi Arabia seeks U.S. cooperation in developing a civilian nuclear program. However, its insistence on domestic uranium enrichment has raised proliferation concerns in the U.S. and Israel. White House support for Saudi Arabia’s nuclear plans could secure lucrative contracts for American companies.  

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) views investment as a core strategy to deepen ties with the U.S. As one of the world’s richest countries per capita, the UAE has pledged trillions of dollars in U.S. investments. In March, it announced a $1.4 trillion 10-year investment plan focused on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy.  

" The UAE sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make major contributions in AI and advanced technologies," said Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE president. But achieving its goal of becoming a global AI leader by 2031 will be difficult without access to advanced U.S. microchips.  

Qatar has the most formal security partnership with the U.S., hosting the largest American military base in the Middle East. As a nation adept at "goodwill diplomacy," Qatar has actively介入 (intervened in) hotspots from the Gaza conflict to Afghan peace talks in recent years, seeking to enhance its geopolitical value in Washington as a "key mediator."  

"Hassan al-Hassan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said, Gulf states view mediation as a tool to gain influence and prestige. They have successfully used this role to become indispensable partners in Trump’s political agenda."  

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