Morning News

Source: Wall Street News

### Market Overview

Before the release of NVIDIA's earnings report, U.S. stocks fluctuated intraday, with the S&P 500 finally edging up to a new record close. After hours, NVIDIA's earnings guidance was relatively underwhelming, and its stock price once fell 5%, dragging U.S. stocks lower in after-hours trading. Snowflake rose 13% after its earnings report. The Chinese concept stock index fell 2.58%, and Meituan ADR once dropped more than 14% in U.S. trading.

Driven by expectations of loose Federal Reserve policy, U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 2-year yield falling more than 6 basis points. France's fiscal problems triggered concerns about European bonds, and the 30-year French bond yield hit a 14-year high.

The U.S. Dollar Index reversed in a "V" shape, falling 0.60% from its daily high. Market risk aversion rose due to France's fiscal issues coupled with the Fed's personnel turmoil, supporting a 0.11% rise in gold.

EIA crude oil inventories decreased, and WTI crude oil once rose nearly 1.4%. Most domestic futures closed down in the night session.

During the Asian session, A-shares and H-shares plunged in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.7%, with the total trading volume of the two markets exceeding 3 trillion yuan again. Cambricon surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the new "stock king" of A-shares. National bonds rebounded, and commodities generally fell.

### Key News

NVIDIA's revenue and profits exceeded expectations, but this quarter's guidance was not impressive. "The absence of China" became the focus. The unsold H20 in China last quarter and the underwhelming data center revenue, coupled with the new $60 billion share repurchase authorization. Jensen Huang said that China may bring $50 billion in business opportunities this year. The stock price once fell 5% after hours.

Shortly after DeepSeek mentioned FP8, NVIDIA pushed FP4 precision to pre-training, which is faster and cheaper.

Meituan's adjusted net profit in Q2 plummeted 89% year-on-year to 1.49 billion yuan, significantly below expectations, with marketing expenses surging 51.8%. In the conference call, it was stated that intense competition is expected to continue in the short term, and the core local commerce business will suffer substantial losses in Q3.

U.S. Treasury Secretary: Never heard Fed Governor Cook deny the charges; the candidate for Fed Chair "will definitely" be announced in the golden autumn. Trump's top economic adviser Hassett pressured Cook to take leave during the lawsuit.

Veteran central bank reporter: Prepare for "the end of Fed independence", but the market hasn't realized it yet. The Wall Street Journal editorial "Trump controls the Fed": He may succeed, but the country will eventually regret it.

Report: The EU will propose cutting U.S. tariffs this week to meet Trump's demands.

After Intel, who will Trump target next? Senior officials hinted at the military industry and shipbuilding industry, with Lockheed Martin being named.

Goldman Sachs' top trader on U.S. stocks: "Late-summer headwinds" are coming.

Mixue Group's first-half revenue increased 39.3% year-on-year, net profit rose 44.1% year-on-year, and its global stores expanded to 53,000.

Dispelling market doubts, Snowflake reported strong earnings and raised its full-year guidance, with its stock price rising 13% after hours.

### Market Closing Quotes

European and American stock markets: The S&P 500 Index rose 0.24% to 6,481.40 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.32% to 45,565.23 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.21% to 21,590.14 points. The European STOXX 600 Index closed up 0.10% at 554.76 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.76% to 3,800.35 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43% to 12,295.07 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.69% to 2,723.20 points.

Bond market: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.52 basis points to 4.2362%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 5.60 basis points to 3.6229%.

Commodities: WTI October crude oil futures closed up 1.42% at $64.15 per barrel. Brent October crude oil futures closed up 1.23% at $68.05 per barrel. COMEX gold futures rose 0.51% to $3,450.60 per ounce.

# Details of Key News  

## Global Highlights  

### NVIDIA  

NVIDIA's revenue and profits exceeded expectations, but its guidance for the current quarter was underwhelming. "The absence of China" has become a focus—unsold H20 inventory in China and lackluster data center revenue in the previous quarter weighed on performance, with its stock price dropping 5% at one point in after-hours trading.  

- In Q2, NVIDIA's year-on-year revenue growth rate hit its lowest in over two years, yet still surpassed analysts' expectations. The company released $180 million worth of H20 inventory in China.  

- Data center revenue underperformed for two consecutive quarters: while revenue from Blackwell products rose 17% quarter-on-quarter, data center computing revenue fell 1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a $4 billion decline in H20 sales.  

- Gaming business revenue increased by 49%, reaching a new all-time high.  

- The Q3 revenue guidance does not account for H20 exports to China. NVIDIA additionally approved a $60 billion share repurchase authorization.  

Jensen Huang stated that China could bring $50 billion in business opportunities this year. During an analyst call, when discussing the competitive threat posed by ASIC chips, Huang emphasized: "NVIDIA now offers complex product systems, not just chips. NVIDIA technology is present in all clouds and delivers greater energy efficiency."  

Shortly after DeepSeek mentioned FP8, NVIDIA advanced FP4 precision to the pre-training field, enabling faster and more cost-effective operations. The UE8M0 FP8 format holds distinct strategic significance—DeepSeek took the lead in adopting it on the model side, publicly announced its use of the UE8M0 format, and tied its training and scaling strategies to this precision. Coincidentally or not, shortly after DeepSeek proposed an FP8 quantization strategy tailored for domestic chips, NVIDIA made another push in the low-precision quantization field on Wednesday. This time, however, it was not a new advancement in FP8 quantization, but a leap forward to FP4 quantization.  

### Meituan  

Meituan's adjusted net profit in Q2 plummeted 89% year-on-year to 1.49 billion yuan, far below expectations, while its marketing expenses surged 51.8%. During the earnings call, the company noted: "Intense competition is expected to persist in the short term, and the core local commerce business will suffer significant losses in Q3."  

- Meituan's Q2 revenue grew 11.7% year-on-year but fell short of market expectations. Amid fierce price wars in food delivery and instant retail, its profitability was eroded: operating profit plummeted 98% to 230 million yuan, with operating profit margin dropping sharply from 13.7% to 0.2%.  

- From a business structure perspective, core local commerce revenue reached 65.3 billion yuan (up 7.7% year-on-year), but its operating profit margin fell from 25.1% to 5.7%.  

During the call, Wang Xing stated: "We firmly oppose inward-looking (involutionary) competition and do not want to see such vicious competition. However, when competition intensifies, Meituan will spare no effort to defend its market position." He added that the company would not be overly affected by short-term price fluctuations, instead returning to fundamentals to ensure fast and reliable delivery and consistently affordable prices. Meituan's CFO expects ongoing market competition to negatively impact financial performance in the short term, but emphasized: "The resilience of the core local commerce business has been verified across multiple cycles, and we are fully confident in maintaining healthy, high-quality growth in the long term."  

Meituan is reshuffling its fresh produce business: it has significantly scaled back Meituan Youxuan and is fully committing to Xiaoxiang Supermarket, with plans to cover all first- and second-tier cities. In overseas business, Keeta has entered Qatar and set a 10-year GMV target of $100 billion, adopting a patient approach while expressing optimism about long-term growth potential.  

### U.S. Treasury Secretary "Questions" Fed Governor Cook  

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated: "We have never heard her (Governor Cook) deny the allegations." Bentsen once again called on Powell to conduct an internal Fed investigation, arguing that the Cook incident falls into the category of issues that need to be addressed. When asked if Trump's dismissal of Cook was part of his plan to gain a majority on the Fed Board of Governors, Bentsen replied: "All Fed governors are independent." Hassett, Trump's chief economic advisor, has pressured Cook to take leave during the litigation period.  

Bentsen noted that the candidate for Fed Chair "will definitely" be announced in the "golden autumn." He stated that Trump has identified 11 "very strong" potential candidates, and he will begin interviewing these candidates after the Labor Day holiday next month, before recommending 3-4 final candidates to President Trump together with other White House officials.  

A senior central bank journalist warned: "Prepare for the 'end of Fed independence'—but the market hasn't realized it yet." For investors, a wiser approach is to assume that starting at some point in the next nine months, the Fed will set interest rates based on Trump's preferences.  

The Wall Street Journal published an editorial titled "Trump Takes Control of the Fed," arguing: "He may succeed, but the country will eventually regret it." The article sharply pointed out that Trump's dismissal of Cook is an attempt to take control of monetary policy—a "well-orchestrated power grab." This is not only a blatant threat to other governors ("cut interest rates or leave"), but also risks sacrificing the Fed's remaining independence.  

The U.S. Congress will hold a crucial vote next week to determine the Fed's independence. "This is a battle of political stances, a referendum on Trump." Trump's decision to dismiss Fed Governor Cook has highly politicized the originally scheduled Miran nomination hearing, testing the support of Republican senators for Trump's radical Fed reform. Democrats are expected to focus on the issue of Fed independence during the Miran confirmation process. Analysts note that the Fed's independence was established by Congress; now it is time to see if Congress will uphold it.  

What could Trump do if he gains a "majority" on the Fed Board of Governors? Deutsche Bank believes that if Trump successfully secures four dovish votes (forming a majority on the Board), he could: 1) Promote radical easing policies; 2) Unilaterally lower the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) rate to bypass FOMC decisions; 3) Reshape the FOMC voting landscape through the appointment power of regional Fed presidents. The U.S. Treasury market has already responded with a "distorted steepening"—long-term yields have risen while short-term real yields have fallen—indicating that threats to Fed independence will push up inflation expectations and risk premiums.  

### EU to Propose U.S. Tariff Cuts  

Reports indicate that the European Union will propose cutting tariffs on the U.S. this week to meet Trump's demands. The EU is expediting legislation to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods by August 31, in exchange for the U.S. reducing tariffs on EU automobile imports from 27.5% to 15%. Although the overall agreement is more favorable to the U.S., the EU has chosen to compromise because the automotive industry is one of Europe's most important export pillars. To accelerate the process, the EU will skip regular impact assessment procedures and submit the legislative proposal as soon as possible.  

### Who Will Trump Target After Intel?  

Senior U.S. officials have hinted at the military and shipbuilding industries, with Lockheed Martin being named. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen stated: "NVIDIA does not require financial support and is not under consideration, but there are other key industries—such as shipbuilding—that the U.S. must self-sufficient in." U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutnick noted that senior Pentagon officials are actively discussing whether to reach share acquisition agreements with defense contractors, adding: "97% of Lockheed Martin's revenue comes from the U.S. government; it is essentially a government department."  

### Goldman Sachs Top Trader on U.S. Stocks  

Rich Privorotsky warned that "late-summer headwinds" are approaching for U.S. stocks. He noted that AI trading— the core driver of market gains—has recently shown signs of fatigue. Weak fundamentals in the consumer and labor markets, combined with liquidity headwinds and seasonal factors, could trigger a correction in U.S. stocks in September.  

### Mixue Group  

Mixue Group's first-half revenue increased by 39.3% year-on-year, with net profit rising 44.1% year-on-year. Its global store count expanded to 53,000. Leveraging the rapid expansion of its store network and supply chain advantages, Mixue Bingcheng delivered a strong half-yearly report, with revenue and net profit growth exceeding expectations—highlighting the robust vitality of its "high-quality, affordable" business model. The number of global stores exceeded 53,000 (up 22.7% year-on-year), and revenue from commodity and equipment sales reached 14.495 billion yuan (up 39.6% year-on-year).  

### Guosheng Securities on Cambricon's Earnings  

Guosheng Securities commented: "A protagonist of the era, with profit margins far exceeding expectations." The brokerage noted that Cambricon maintained a stable gross profit margin of 55.88%, with sound cost control and excellent cash flow performance. Its contract liabilities surged to 543 million yuan. Based on multiple financial indicators, Guosheng Securities expects the company to maintain strong revenue growth momentum. It also anticipates that the sustainability of the current AI wave will far exceed expectations, significantly driving up demand for computing power—and expressed optimism that Cambricon will become a key player in this AI wave.  

### Goldman Sachs Raises Target Prices for "Optical Module Giants"  

Goldman Sachs raised the target prices for Zhongji Innolight and New Easy Sheng, stating: "Valuations remain reasonable despite sharp stock price increases." The bank noted that although the stock prices of New Easy Sheng and Zhongji Innolight have risen sharply recently, their expected 2026 P/E ratios (19x and 23x, respectively) are roughly in line with their historical averages since 2021 (19x/22x). Benefiting from persistent supply shortages, scale advantages, eliminated tariff risks, and slower price declines, Goldman Sachs raised Zhongji Innolight's 12-month target price to 392 yuan and New Easy Sheng's to 398 yuan.  

### Snowflake  

Snowflake shattered market doubts with strong earnings and an upward revision of its full-year guidance, driving its stock price up 13% in after-hours trading. The AI data cloud platform company released its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report, with revenue, profits, and future outlook all exceeding market expectations—alleviating concerns about market share being seized by AI startups. Its remaining performance obligations reached $6.9 billion (up 33% year-on-year), reflecting strong long-term customer investment.  

## Domestic Macroeconomics  

### China's Industrial Enterprise Profits  

In July, the year-on-year decline in profits of China's large-scale industrial enterprises narrowed to 1.5%, while profits of high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly. The decline in profits narrowed by 2.8 percentage points from June, marking two consecutive months of improvement. Specifically, profits of high-tech manufacturing reversed from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase. Since the implementation of the "Two New" (new technologies, new industries) policies, results have been evident: profits of computer整机 manufacturing and intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing industries rose by 124.2% and 100.0%, respectively.  

### "Deposit Migration" Drives Wealth Management Boom  

Amid "deposit migration," 14 wealth management companies saw their assets under management (AUM) grow by approximately 1.8 trillion yuan net in July. Wealth management companies have become key recipients of resident savings flowing out of deposits. The top 14 wealth management companies (by scale) all achieved net growth in their existing balances in July, with a total AUM increase of nearly 1.8 trillion yuan.  

### How to Monitor "Liquidity-Driven Bull Markets"?  

Bank of America (BofA) identified 8 key indicators. BofA believes that turnover rate, market leverage ratio, and the share of margin trading and short selling are core indicators for judging market sentiment and risk levels. Currently, the share of margin trading has reached the level seen in the early stages of the 2014 July-August bull market. If the turnover rate remains at 600% for 2-3 consecutive months or the market leverage ratio exceeds 7.5%, it may signal overheating.  

## Domestic Companies  

### Morgan Stanley on Chinese Robots  

Morgan Stanley stated: "For $5,000-level robots, China's development pace far exceeds Western perceptions." The bank noted that Beijing hosted two major robot events within a few days, highlighting China's high attention and strategic positioning for the humanoid robot industry. In terms of policy, industrial support has formed a comprehensive system from the national to local levels. Yushu Technology and Zhongqing Intelligent launched humanoid robots priced at only $5,900 and $5,500, respectively—demonstrating significant progress by Chinese companies in cost control and large-scale production. Consumer surveys show that Chinese consumers' acceptance of humanoid robots is approximately twice that of U.S. consumers, providing a favorable environment for industrial development.  

### China's Robot Industry Chain  

Upstream sectors are more profitable than downstream ones, and 2027 will be the "first year of large-scale commercialization." HSBC predicts that 2027 will mark the "first year of large-scale commercialization" of humanoid robots, with the investment payback period shortening to approximately 2 years. Chinese robot manufacturers lead their overseas counterparts in the commercialization process, with advantages in price, cost, and supply chains. The report argues that compared to downstream整机 (complete machine) manufacturers, upstream component suppliers such as Sanhua Intelligent and Shuanghuan Drive will achieve higher profitability during the upcoming industry boom.  

### Zijin Mining  

Zijin Mining's profits soared and its stock price hit a new high, while the company warned of "unprecedented risks"—noting that competition among major powers for key minerals has entered a phase of high-intensity confrontation. In H1 2025, Zijin Mining's net profit reached 28.6 billion yuan (up 55% year-on-year), its stock price hit an all-time high, and its market value exceeded $80 billion, ranking it among the world's top three mining companies. The company warned: "Global uncertainty has become unprecedented, and competition among major powers for key minerals has entered a phase of high-intensity confrontation, which may affect the company's revenue, profits, and new overseas projects."  

### China Life  

Insurance giant China Life released its half-year report: net profit rose 6.9% year-on-year, and it "increased positions" by 150 billion yuan in the stock market during the half-year.  

### PICC  

In H1, PICC's net profit increased 17.8% year-on-year, investment income rose by over 40%, and the total investment return rate climbed to 5.1%.  

### SPD Bank  

SPD Bank's operating income increased 2.62% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose 10.19% year-on-year.  

### China CITIC Bank  

China CITIC Bank released its half-year report, showing resilience amid pressure: net profit increased 3% year-on-year, and the decline in operating income narrowed further.  

### ANTA Sports  

ANTA Sports' H1 revenue grew 14% year-on-year, while net profit fell nearly 9% year-on-year.  

## Overseas Macroeconomics  

### Fed's Third-Highest-Ranking Official  

New York Fed President John Williams stated: "Every meeting is a substantive meeting where action may be taken, and Fed independence is extremely valuable." Williams noted that the Fed's September meeting is "live" (implying policy flexibility), though he did not explicitly support a rate hike or cut. He believes current interest rates are "moderately restrictive"—even if rates are cut, policy will remain somewhat restrictive—but any action will depend on economic data. Williams emphasized that Fed independence is "extremely valuable" globally.  

### U.S. 5-Year Treasury Auction Underperforms Amid Cook's Dismissal Turmoil  

The awarded yield for this 5-year Treasury auction was 3.724%, lower than July's 3.983% but marking the third consecutive auction with a tail (indicating weak demand). The subscription ratio of overseas investors was significantly below the recent average, though domestic U.S. demand hit a record high. Analysts stated that the auction was generally disappointing, but bright spots could still be seen in some details.  

### U.S. Corporate Buybacks Hit $1 Trillion in 2025 (Fastest on Record)  

As of August 20, U.S. corporate stock buybacks in 2025 reached $1 trillion—setting a record for the shortest time to reach this milestone. U.S. companies are planning to repurchase stocks at a historic pace, seen as a sign of their confidence in the U.S. economy. However, buybacks have sparked dissatisfaction among some members of the Trump administration: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen criticized Boeing for conducting massive stock buybacks instead of investing funds in R&D.  

### Japanese Stocks Rise (Overseas Capital Inflows)  

Japanese stocks have been overlooked, but foreign capital is pouring in. Against the backdrop of safe-haven funds withdrawing from the U.S., a lower-than-expected U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, and increased market confidence in corporate governance reforms, the Japanese stock market has launched a "ninja-style rally"—the TOPIX index has risen over 34% since April. For the first time, three types of funds (foreign capital, Japanese domestic institutions, and retail investors) are entering the market simultaneously. Notably, foreign capital has purchased $35.7 billion worth of Japanese stocks since April, with global top funds such as Bridgewater adjusting their positions to allocate to Japanese stocks.  

# Goldman Sachs: Crude Oil Surplus to Worsen; Brent Crude May Fall to Just Over $50 by End-2026  

Goldman Sachs warned in its latest report that oil prices may remain around the current forward contract levels in 2025, but this trend is unsustainable. By the end of 2026, the price of Brent crude oil futures could drop to just over $50 per barrel. The reason is that the crude oil market will enter a state of long-term surplus, with global inventories expected to surge by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026.  

# Overseas Companies  

## Google Cuts 35% of Small Team Management, Streamlines Hierarchies and Emphasizes Efficiency  

Google’s CEO stated that as the company expands in scale, it must improve efficiency rather than simply solving problems by increasing staff numbers. Company management noted that 10 product departments have currently launched "voluntary exit program" plans.  

## Talents Lured by Zuckerberg with High Salaries Return to OpenAI, Including Chief Scientist Zhao Shengjia  

The talents that Zuckerberg recently recruited with nine-figure salaries can no longer stay put. According to *Wired* magazine, two employees returned to OpenAI (where they previously worked) less than a month after joining Meta. Even Zhao Shengjia, the newly appointed chief scientist, was revealed to have attempted to return to OpenAI and even signed an employment agreement at one point. Senior employees also followed suit—an executive who had worked at Meta for nearly 10 years also switched to OpenAI.  

## OpenAI’s Restructuring May Be Delayed Until Next Year; Negotiations with Microsoft Hit Critical Disagreements  

OpenAI’s internal structure adjustment has been delayed repeatedly. The underlying reason is that multiple major disagreements between OpenAI and Microsoft remain unresolved, which may delay OpenAI’s overall financing and IPO processes. Sources indicate that OpenAI is negotiating with Microsoft over an existing contract signed by both parties that runs until 2030. If no agreement is reached within this year, SoftBank’s $10 billion investment in OpenAI may fall through, and other financing efforts of OpenAI will also be hindered.  

## Stanford University’s Latest Study: AI Has Impacted Employment of Young Americans, Especially "Computer Science Students"  

The study points out that generative AI is substantially undermining the employment prospects of young people, particularly in positions easily replaceable by AI, such as software development, front desk reception, translation, and customer service. By analyzing tens of millions of anonymized data points from payroll service provider ADP, researchers found that after the launch of ChatGPT, the number of employed young programmers aged 22-25 dropped by nearly 20%. In contrast, older employees were not significantly affected due to their comprehensive capabilities that AI finds difficult to replicate.  

## SpaceX Starship’s 10th Test Flight Successfully Completes Historic Starlink Satellite Simulation Deployment: One Launch = 20x Falcon 9 Capacity  

Starship will soon launch V3 Starlink satellites. Each launch will add 60 Tbps of capacity to the network, which is more than 20 times the capacity of the current Falcon 9 launches. To put this in perspective: 60 Tbps of network capacity per launch is incredibly remarkable—even a single launch exceeds the total capacity of all other satellite providers in the United States currently.  

## Musk’s Starship Test Makes History Again: Success After 3 Explosions and 3 Delays, Completing Space Payload Deployment Smoothly  

The 10th test flight of Musk’s Starship was a complete success, marking the first full success of the second-generation Starship. On the 27th Beijing time, the B16+S37 combination was launched in Texas and successfully achieved key objectives such as booster return, payload deployment, and in-space reignition. The spacecraft finally landed successfully in the target waters of the Indian Ocean. The previous three test flights all ended in explosions, and this launch also experienced three delays due to factors including the explosion of Ship 36, liquid oxygen leakage, and weather conditions.  

# Industries/Concepts  

1. **PCB Equipment**: CSC Financial pointed out that the PCB industry is characterized by a return to an upward cycle, high-end product development, and factory construction in Southeast Asia. The increase in output and changes in processes are expected to continuously drive demand for the renewal and upgrading of PCB equipment. Drilling, exposure, electroplating, and testing are core links in PCB production.  

2. **Solid-State Batteries**: Guotai Junan Securities noted that driven by both policies and demand, solid-state batteries are expected to become the development direction of next-generation high-performance batteries. In the short term, oxide-based semi-solid-state batteries will be deployed and scaled up rapidly; in the long term, sulfide-based all-solid-state batteries have broad prospects.  

3. **3D Printing**: A research report by GF Securities explained the application of metal 3D printing in server heat dissipation cold plates. Currently, there are product solutions for metal 3D-printed cold plates, and their heat dissipation performance is significantly better than that of traditional cutting microchannel technology. Investors should pay attention to domestic companies that are leading in applying 3D printing in liquid cooling.  

4. **Chips**: The rapid development of this round of embodied intelligent robots is inseparable from the rise of large AI models. As the foundation for the development of large models, computing power will become a core key support point for the development of embodied intelligent robots.  

# Today’s Key News Preview  

- U.S. Q2 GDP and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index  

- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Previous Week  

- Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Waller  

- Release of the European Central Bank’s July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes  

- Earnings Reports by Dell, Marvell Technology, and Li Auto  

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